The Copper & Blue - A Closer Look At The Oilers' Draft PicksA site for fans of the Edmonton Oilers. Someday we'll get to write about an Oilers playoff game. Hopefully sooner than later.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/13253/copper-fave.jpg2013-08-08T07:58:25-06:00http://www.coppernblue.com/rss/stream/42778812013-08-08T07:58:25-06:002013-08-08T07:58:25-06:00Yakimov is here to pump you up<img src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XGKxFOM9uqBaVkMKtg9LOnyQRHs=/410x410/cdn.vox-cdn.com/fan_shot_images/300501/BPU4Wc0CYAAKXbI.jpg" />
<div class="source source-img"><p><p>A regular reader pointed out that Bogdan Yakimov does not lack the physique to be an NHL player, as indicated by a photo of him posted to his Twitter account <a href="https://twitter.com/bosh1011" target="new">@bosh1011</a> .</p></p></div>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/8/8/4601612/bogdan-yakimov-is-no-shrinking-violetDerek Zona2013-07-10T06:30:04-06:002013-07-10T06:30:04-06:00Anton Slepyshev - A Closer Look
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3EK-sXzMZg0HV7UMg9yE_q882bU=/121x0:533x275/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/16195303/anton_slepyshev.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>AFP</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A deep dive into #88</p> <p><span>Anton Slepyshev</span> was one of Edmonton's more interesting selections in the 2013 entry draft simply because he was selected 88th overall after being passed over completely in 2012. That's the kind of thing that happens when a player is an unknown quantity in his draft year and then has a break-out season, but that wasn't the case with Slepyshev who was <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/12/2012-nhl-draft-top-100-june-update-yakupov-is-unanimous">ranked 38th overall in the final NHL Numbers Consensus Rankings before the 2012 draft</a>. Every other player ranked inside the top 50 on that list was selected inside the top 100 with the exception of <span>Andreas Athanasiou</span> who was taken 110th overall, and just five other players ranked inside the top 100 went unselected (Dane Fox, Emil Lundberg, Vyacheslav Osnovin, Dominik Volek, and A.J. Michaelson), none of whom were drafted in 2013.</p>
<p>So Slepyshev's situation is a bit odd. He was a known quantity that no one wanted in 2012 only to become the 88th selection the following year. It's especially odd because Slepyshev didn't really perform all that well in 2013. In 2012 he captained Russia to a 5th place finish in the U-18 World Championships, and led his team in scoring with seven points in six games. In 2013 he made the U-20 team, but played a lesser role and had just one assist in seven games. In 2012 he scored seven points in thirty-nine KHL games, which doesn't sound impressive, but is actually one of the better seasons by a draft-eligible player since the KHL came into existence in 2008-09.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2899215/Anton_Slepyshev.jpg" class="photo" alt="Anton_slepyshev"><br id="1373447371225"></p>
<p>In 2013, he improved on that output marginally, but was caught by several of his peers.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2899283/Anton_Slepyshev.jpg" class="photo" alt="Anton_slepyshev"><br id="1373450719428"></p>
<p>To my eye, Slepyshev looks far less impressive in 2012-13 than he did in 2011-12, and yet the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a> drafted him this year. I can think of two possible reasons for the change of heart. The first is the perceived likelihood of Slepyshev coming to North America. The fact that he wasn't selected in 2012 suggests that teams felt he wasn't likely to come over. The Oilers, it seems, now feel differently. The other possible change is Edmonton's stated emphasis on skill in the draft. Whereas in the past they might have passed on a player from the KHL because he might not come to North America, they're now more willing to take a risk in order to select the player with the best chance of becoming a significant contributor at the NHL level.</p>
<p>So how good are Slepyshev's chances? Thankfully, the KHL keeps more detailed statistics than some leagues, and so we can look at that last chart again, but this time add in time on ice per game and shots on goal per game to get a sense of how involved Slepyshev is on his team compared to some of the other prospects.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2899307/Anton_Slepyshev.jpg" class="photo" alt="Anton_slepyshev"><br id="1373451491809"></p>
<p>The extra data is a mix of both encouraging and discouraging. On the one hand, the fact that the lag in offense can't be attributed to a lack of ice time is a bit discouraging. On the other hand, the fact that he played 12:04 per game suggests that he'll likely continue to get the ice time he needs to develop his game in Russia, which is important because he's already got a contract to play there in 2013-14 and may stay even longer. The shots per game totals are decent, which is good, but well short of the totals amassed by Kuznetsov, Yakupov, and Tarasenko, the only three players on the list who look like they'll have significant NHL careers.</p>
<p>The numbers leave me feeling like Slepyshev has some catching up to do if he hopes to make it as an impact player in the NHL, but that's probably to be expected at this point in the draft. And even if Slepyshev is something of a long shot, I'm still pleased that the Oilers picked him because it's the kind of selection that's indicative of a shift in draft strategy towards selecting players who, if everything breaks right, could be real difference-makers.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/10/4510056/anton-slepyshev-a-closer-lookScott Reynolds2013-07-04T05:45:00-06:002013-07-04T05:45:00-06:00Nurse: Offense Coming
<figure>
<img alt="Now that he's under the bright lights, Nurse is going to shine." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rWz0ngzG1v6wdJ_VYBwY5OqMXnI=/0x16:4000x2683/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15888517/171988851.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Now that he's under the bright lights, Nurse is going to shine. | Bruce Bennett</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Oilers' latest draft pick has more to offer on offense</p> <blockquote>
<p>The only other area of concern is regarding what his offensive upside tops out at the next level. Does he become a top PP guy in the NHL or is his projected role limited to becoming a steady defense first guy who can make a strong outlet pass, join the odd rush and consistently shut down the opposition?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>--<a href="http://futureconsiderations.ca/" target="_blank">Future Considerations on Darnell Nurse</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have heard previous concerns from scouts about his offensive upside, but he took a step forward in that element this season. He will not be a dynamic offensive threat, but he can move the puck at an above-average level, and join the rush on occasion. He projects as a point man on a second power play unit, while logging the tough defensive minutes. Nurse's next level of progression will have to come from his below-average shot.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>--<a href="http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1523" target="_blank">Corey Pronman on Darnell Nurse</a></p>
<p>Nearly every draft guru called <span>Darnell Nurse</span> a "two-way" player and a "physical talent", but almost all of them nicked Nurse for his lack of offensive ability. Compared to the 8 other defensemen taken in the first round, his numbers don't stand out, and trail some of the more offensive players by a wide margin:</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 375pt;" border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="499">
<colgroup>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4973; width: 102pt;" width="136">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1499; width: 31pt;" width="41">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108; width: 64pt;" width="85">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2084; width: 43pt;" width="57">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840; width: 79pt;" width="105">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2742; width: 56pt;" width="75">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt; width: 102pt;" height="20" align="center" width="136"><b><font face="Calibri">Player</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 31pt;" align="center" width="41"><b><font face="Calibri">Num.</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 64pt;" align="center" width="85"><b><font face="Calibri">Drafted By</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" align="center" width="57"><b><font face="Calibri">League</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 79pt;" align="center" width="105"><b><font face="Calibri">Team</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" align="center" width="75"><b><font face="Calibri">P/G</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Seth Jones</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nashville</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Portland</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.918</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Ryan Pulock</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">15</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">NY <a href="https://www.lighthousehockey.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Islanders</a></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Brandon</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.738</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Shea Theodore</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">26</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Anaheim</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seattle</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.704</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Josh Morrissey</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">13</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Winnipeg</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Prince Albert</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.671</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Darnell Nurse</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">7</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Edmonton</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Sault Ste. Marie</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.603</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Mirco Mueller</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">18</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">San Jose</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Everett</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.492</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Rasmus Ristolainen</span>*</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">8</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">SM-liiga</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">TPS Turku</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.477</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Nikita Zadorov</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">16</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">London</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.397</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri"><span>Samuel Morin</span></font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">11</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Philadelphia</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">QMJHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rimouski </font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">0.348</font></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><i> *Adjusted to WHL levels</i></p>
<p>Morin, Zadorov and Mueller weren't drafted for their offense, and Ristolainen's offensive game took off once the lockout ended and <span>Kris Russell</span>, <span>Kevin Shattenkirk</span>, and <span>Alec Martinez</span> left for the NHL. Nurse is really only ahead of the defense-first guys. There's a catch, however:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Hey <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledubas">@kyledubas</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/vcarneiro">@vcarneiro</a> - Nurse wasn't on the top PP pairing, was he?</p>
— Copper & Blue (@CopperandBlue) <a href="https://twitter.com/CopperandBlue/statuses/351435537183281153">June 30, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Kyle Dubas is the General Manager of the Soo Greyhounds, Nurse's OHL team. Vic Carneiro serves as a scout for the team. These two would know about Nurse's utilization.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>He was not. Sproul-Miller were top unit. RT<a href="https://twitter.com/CopperandBlue">@CopperandBlue</a>: Hey <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledubas">@kyledubas</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/vcarneiro">@vcarneiro</a> - Nurse wasn't on the top PP pairing, was he?"</p>
— Kyle Dubas (@kyledubas) <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledubas/statuses/351436606911160321">June 30, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>and</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/CopperandBlue">@CopperandBlue</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/kyledubas">@kyledubas</a> No Sproul and Miller were the top pairing. Nurse generated 65% of his offense 5v5. Faced 2nd toughest comp on team</p>
— Victor Carneiro (@vcarneiro) <a href="https://twitter.com/vcarneiro/statuses/351438424365998080">June 30, 2013</a>
</blockquote>
<p>
<script charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
How does Nurse compare on the power play to his fellow first rounders?</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 348pt;" border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="463">
<colgroup>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4973; width: 102pt;" width="136">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1499; width: 31pt;" width="41">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108; width: 64pt;" width="85">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2084; width: 43pt;" width="57">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840; width: 79pt;" width="105">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1426; width: 29pt;" width="39">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt; width: 102pt;" height="20" align="center" width="136"><b><font face="Calibri">Player</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 31pt;" align="center" width="41"><b><font face="Calibri">Num.</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 64pt;" align="center" width="85"><b><font face="Calibri">Drafted By</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" align="center" width="57"><b><font face="Calibri">League</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 79pt;" align="center" width="105"><b><font face="Calibri">Team</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" align="center" width="39"><b><font face="Calibri">%PP</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Shea Theodore</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">26</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Anaheim</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seattle</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.540</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Ryan Pulock</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">15</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">NY Islanders</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Brandon</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.489</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Mirco Mueller</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">18</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">San Jose</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Everett</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.452</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seth Jones</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nashville</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Portland</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.411</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Darnell Nurse</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">7</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Edmonton</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Sault Ste. Marie</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.341</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Samuel Morin</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">11</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Philadelphia</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">QMJHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rimouski </font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.313</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rasmus Ristolainen*</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">8</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">SM-liiga</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">TPS Turku</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.275</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Josh Morrissey</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">13</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Winnipeg</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Prince Albert</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.106</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nikita Zadorov</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">16</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">London</font></td>
<td style="width: 29pt;" class="xl66" align="center" width="39"><font face="Calibri">0.040</font></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Nurse ranks 5th in percentage of offense generated on the power play, with the defense-first crew and Josh Morrissey behind him.</p>
<p>But Carneiro mentions something else: Quality of Competition. We know from <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition" target="_blank">Qoc Calculations</a> that <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/29/4478064/chl-forward-usage-draft-data" target="_blank">Nurse played 25:30 minutes per game</a> (later confirmed as 25:13 by Dubas and Carneiro) and played against the second-toughest competition on the team (again confirmed by Carneiro). How does that stack up against the other first-round defensemen?</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 375pt;" border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="499">
<colgroup>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4973; width: 102pt;" width="136">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1499; width: 31pt;" width="41">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108; width: 64pt;" width="85">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2084; width: 43pt;" width="57">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840; width: 79pt;" width="105">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2742; width: 56pt;" width="75">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt; width: 102pt;" height="20" align="center" width="136"><b><font face="Calibri">Player</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 31pt;" align="center" width="41"><b><font face="Calibri">Num.</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 64pt;" align="center" width="85"><b><font face="Calibri">Drafted By</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" align="center" width="57"><b><font face="Calibri">League</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 79pt;" align="center" width="105"><b><font face="Calibri">Team</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" align="center" width="75"><b><font face="Calibri">TOI</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Darnell Nurse</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">7</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Edmonton</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Sault Ste. Marie</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">25.5</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Ryan Pulock</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">15</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">NY Islanders</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Brandon</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">24.2</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seth Jones</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nashville</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Portland</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">22.6</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Josh Morrissey</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">13</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Winnipeg</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Prince Albert</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">22.6</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rasmus Ristolainen</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">8</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">SM-liiga</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">TPS Turku</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">21.7</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Shea Theodore</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">26</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Anaheim</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seattle</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">21.4</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Mirco Mueller</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">18</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">San Jose</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Everett</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">19.7</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nikita Zadorov</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">16</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">London</font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">18.5</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Samuel Morin</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">11</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Philadelphia</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">QMJHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rimouski </font></td>
<td style="width: 56pt;" class="xl67" align="center" width="75"><font face="Calibri">17.2</font></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>No one logged more ice time than Nurse. He played on the second power play, the first penalty kill and the top pairing throughout the year. What about competition?</p>
<p><font face="Calibri"> </font></p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 349pt;" border="2" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="464">
<colgroup>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4717; width: 97pt;" width="129">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1499; width: 31pt;" width="41">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3108; width: 64pt;" width="85">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2084; width: 43pt;" width="57">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3840; width: 79pt;" width="105">
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1718; width: 35pt;" width="47">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt; width: 97pt;" height="20" align="center" width="129"><b><font face="Calibri">Player</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 31pt;" align="center" width="41"><b><font face="Calibri">Num.</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 64pt;" align="center" width="85"><b><font face="Calibri">Drafted By</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" align="center" width="57"><b><font face="Calibri">League</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 79pt;" align="center" width="105"><b><font face="Calibri">Team</font></b></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" align="center" width="47"><b><font face="Calibri">QoC</font></b></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Josh Morrissey</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">13</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Winnipeg</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Prince Albert</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">1</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Mirco Mueller</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">18</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">San Jose</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Everett</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">1</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Darnell Nurse</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">7</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Edmonton</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Sault Ste. Marie</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">2</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Ryan Pulock</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">15</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">NY Islanders</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Brandon</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">2</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Samuel Morin</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">11</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Philadelphia</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">QMJHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rimouski </font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">2</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seth Jones</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nashville</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Portland</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">3</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Rasmus Ristolainen*</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">8</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">SM-liiga</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">TPS Turku</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Shea Theodore</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">26</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Anaheim</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">WHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Seattle</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20">
<td style="height: 15.0pt;" height="20" align="center"><font face="Calibri">Nikita Zadorov</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">16</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">Buffalo</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">OHL</font></td>
<td align="center"><font face="Calibri">London</font></td>
<td style="width: 35pt;" class="xl65" align="center" width="47"><font face="Calibri">4</font></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><i>*Not adjusted for league</i></p>
<p>Nurse played the tough minutes along with Morrissey, Mueller, Pulock and Morin.</p>
<p>What conclusions can we draw from this? First, Nurse is due for a spike in his offensive numbers as he moves to the top power play unit. If he stays on the top PK, however, it will draw away from his even strength time, so his ES offense may dip. Nurse is already playing a ton of minutes, so his TOI isn't going to climb by much, if at all.</p>
<p>Second, if Nurse does see a jump in his offense, say in the range of .75 - .80 points per game, the concerns over offense are going to drop away.</p>
<p>Third, the <a href="https://www.arcticicehockey.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Winnipeg Jets</a> drafted an outstanding player in Josh Morrissey.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/4/4278534/darnell-nurse-offense-power-play-josh-morrisseyDerek Zona2013-07-03T16:30:04-06:002013-07-03T16:30:04-06:00Marc-Olivier Roy - A Closer Look
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Wdt3w4azUw3aA03AaWYvmXqvJhk=/0x0:473x315/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15864923/marc-olivier_roy.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Richard Wolowicz</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We've talked quite a bit about <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/1/4484954/a-closer-look-at-the-draft-day-trades">Craig MacTavish's decision to trade out of the second round twice during the 2013 draft</a>, and at this point I think we've come to agree that (1) MacTavish felt he was taking advantage of a market that overvalued second round picks and undervalued selections in the third and fourth round, and (2) MacTavish got less value for his second round picks than what has historically been available for trading down. If we can agree on those two things, we should be able to agree on one more: the fact that the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a> took Marc-Olivier Roy 56th overall instead of trading down (again) suggests that the team really likes this player.</p>
<p>This is particularly interesting when you consider MacTavish's comments about Roy after the draft (emphasis mine):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Marc-Olivier I don't know all that well. <i><b>I've never seen him play</b></i>, but he really fit the criteria of a skill guy that has a chance to be an impact player.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So the team has fallen in love with a player that the General Manager has never seen play. That means the GM is relying on his amateur scouts and/or some kind of analytical formula to tell him that Roy has a chance to be an impact player at the NHL level. Roy did bring quite a bit of offense in the QMJHL this year, so I'm not immediately skeptical, but let's take a look at Roy's comparables to see if there are any impact players who had similar offensive numbers in the CHL.</p>
<p>In this case a comparable player was someone who was drafted in his first year of eligibility in 1983 or later, played his draft year in the CHL, had an <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/3/4386818/nhl-draft-2013-introduction-to-comparables">adjusted</a> goals per game rate (regular season and playoffs) between 0.39 and 0.48, an <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/3/4386818/nhl-draft-2013-introduction-to-comparables">adjusted</a> points per game rate between 0.96 and 1.17 (90% to 110% of Roy's production), and was selected somewhere between 41st and 71st overall.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2874899/Marc-Olivier_Roy.jpg" class="photo" alt="Marc-olivier_roy"><br id="1372883928341"></p>
<p>None of these names are really jumping out at me here. Let's see how this group did in the NHL.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2874907/Marc-Olivier_Roy.jpg" class="photo" alt="Marc-olivier_roy"><br id="1372884027191"></p>
<p>Well that's not good at all. Four of the seventeen comparable players are still prospects, but the other thirteen didn't become any kind of NHL player let alone an impact player. Roy is toward the top of the list in terms of his junior scoring, but he was also one of the oldest players when drafted. Overall, not a lot of reason for optimism.</p>
<p>Are the scouts saying anything that might get us excited? <a href="http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1539">Corey Pronman</a> had Roy ranked 70th, so he obviously saw some problems, but also offered some strong compliments about Roy's skating:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Roy's best skill is his skating, which is plus, as he can jet through the neutral zone with impressive top speed. He is a technically sound skater, and he is very elusive in tight.... Roy has roughly average size, and his physical game can be inconsistent. He will, at times, show fine on-ice effort, but there will be times where he can drift off to the perimeter, while not overly impressing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://futureconsiderations.ca/">Future Considerations</a> liked him quite a bit more, presumably seeing more offensive potential, ranking him 43rd overall, but several parts of the scouting report are quite similar:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>He skates very well both in terms of lateral agility and speed and explodes out of the gate with his first few steps and has a solid change of pace that keeps defenders on their toes.... Roy plays with a surprising physicality to his game where he finishes hits, often surprising bigger opponents, and is not afraid to get gritty for pucks or mix it up after whistles. He supports his defense well by consistently coming back into his zone and proving an outlet. The biggest problem with Roy’s game is his defensive willingness to pick up a check and his consistency level from shift to shift.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Overall, I'm not particularly optimistic about Roy's chances of getting to the NHL. The fact that none of the seventeen guys with a similar draft and scoring profile have become NHL players is, to some extent, just bad luck, but it's also indicative of the long road any second round pick faces. I was hopeful that the offense he showed might make him a better bet than most players taken at that point in the draft, but that doesn't seem to be the case.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/3/4491394/marc-olivier-roy-a-closer-lookScott Reynolds2013-07-03T10:30:04-06:002013-07-03T10:30:04-06:00Measuring Darnell Nurse
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KYdLVNqyywrj49XMQUrpPUk8LGI=/0x295:2985x2285/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15843945/20130414_kkt_ah3_162.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the first time in long time, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a> first-round draft choice didn't have any associated drama or controversy mainly due to the lack of hype and build-up that goes along with having the first overall choice in the draft - a Steve Tambellini specialty. Of course, this was a different sort of draft - it wasn't nearly as weak as the class from 2011, had far more depth than the 2010 class, and wasn't top-heavy on defense like the 2012 draft. Prior to the draft, the conversation centered around <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/6/26/2013-nhl-draft-rankings-final">the four players likely to be available for the Oilers at selction #7</a>: Valeri Nichushkin, <span>Sean Monahan</span>, Darnell Nurse and <span>Rasmus Ristolainen</span>.</p>
<p>Calgary snapped up Sean Monahan and the Oilers were left with a conundrum - take the big wing (Nichushkin) with all of the physical skills and projected numbers, or grab one of the two near-ready top-pairing defenders. If I were in Craig MacTavish's shoes, I probably lean towards Nichushkin, but in the end have no issues with the Darnell Nurse selection. We've quoted various scouting services here since the draft, but I had a chance to talk to three scouts about Nurse and where he fits in comparison to the defensemen selected in the top 10 since 2010. The answers were surprising:</p>
<p><i>Scout #1, an NHL amateur scout</i>: "I'd rate him just behind Murray, but ahead of Larsson and Gudbranson."</p>
<p><i>Scout #2, an OHL scout</i>: "He's a top 5 pick in 2010, and the second defenseman taken in 2011 and 2012."</p>
<p><i>Scout #3, an NHL amateur scout</i>: "He's the best defenseman in the draft in 2010, equal to Larsson and very close to Murray, though not nearly as polished in his own end as Murray."</p>
<p>If Nurse is better than or equal to all of the defensemen taken at the top of the draft over the last three years (<span>Erik Gudbranson</span>, <span>Adam Larsson</span>, <span>Ryan Murray</span>), the Oilers have landed a wonderful talent. Valeri Nichushkin might become the next <span>Shane Doan</span>, but the Oilers have an outstanding consolation prize.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/3/4490400/how-does-darnell-nurse-stack-upDerek Zona2013-07-02T11:30:04-06:002013-07-02T11:30:04-06:00Aidan Muir - A Closer Look
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7CydZ9wGmt_418zM3MR3_eJlUVs=/0x50:396x314/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15756825/aidan_muir.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jamie Squire</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a> selected 17-year-old Aidan Muir with the 113th pick in the 2013 entry draft, which seems awfully high for a player who was cut by the Erie Otters in training camp and played the 2012-13 season in the Midwest Elite Hockey League. In the lead-up to the draft, <a href="http://www.isshockey.com/">International Scouting Services</a>, <a href="http://futureconsiderations.ca/">Future Considerations</a>, and <a href="http://hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1522">Corey Pronman</a> all agreed that there were at least 210 prospects better than Muir available, and <a href="http://thesalinepost.com/blog/general/aidan-muir-hopes-nhl-career-takes-flight-sundays-draft">in an interview with his local paper</a>, Muir himself didn't seem sure about whether or not he was going to be drafted:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Everything has come together so fast. I don't really have the biggest expectations. I'm just glad to have all my family coming to visit. If I don't get drafted, I'll be cool with that.... In some ways, not getting drafted can be an advantage, because then you can negotiate to play where you want when your time comes.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As it turns out, the Oilers stepped up in the fourth round. So how did Muir go from being cut by the Otters in September to being drafted in June? As you might expect, he took a huge step forward this season. Muir said that being cut at the start of the season "<a href="http://thesalinepost.com/blog/general/aidan-muir-hopes-nhl-career-takes-flight-sundays-draft">worked out for the best</a>" because he "<a href="http://thesalinepost.com/blog/general/aidan-muir-hopes-nhl-career-takes-flight-sundays-draft">would have been fourth liner there and wouldn't have developed</a>". The extra year in Midget hockey certainly seems to have helped. In 2011-12, Muir finished sixth in points per game <i>on his team</i> at the U-16 level with 0.50; in 2012-13, he finished sixth <i>in the league</i> at the U-18 level with 1.08.</p>
<p>Those much better results were obvious early on, and Muir <a href="http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog.com/2013/5/23/4352452/2013-nhl-draft-prospect-aidan-muir-western-michigan">began to receive offers from the OHL and USHL to join a team mid-season</a>, but he declined, deciding to stay with the coaches who "<a href="http://thesalinepost.com/blog/general/aidan-muir-hopes-nhl-career-takes-flight-sundays-draft">pushed [him] in the right direction and gave [him] the coaching [he] needed</a>". Muir's season also got the attention of NCAA teams, and Muir <a href="http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog.com/western-college-hockey-recruiting-ncaa/2013/2/11/3978942/aidan-muir-commits-to-western-michigan">committed to Western Michigan in February for the 2015-16 season</a>. With that date still two years off, it became clear that Muir would be spending some time in the USHL, and the Indiana Ice made him <a href="http://hoosierpuck.blogspot.ca/2013/05/ice-ushl-entry-draft.html">the first overall pick in the USHL entry draft</a>. When the last Central Scouting list arrived, Muir debuted as the 108th-ranked North American skater.</p>
<p>It's quite the story, but Muir is going to need to keep getting better at a torrid pace if he hopes to make it to the NHL. Muir was the only player from MWEHL to get drafted, but as was noted earlier, he didn't lead the league in scoring, and was a long way from the best offensive seasons that league his seen since it re-launched in 2008-09:</p>
<p><img alt="Aidan_muir" class="photo" src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2868485/Aidan_Muir.jpg"><br id="1372754535428"></p>
<p>None of the players in that top ten were drafted in their first year of eligibility, though Ryan Dzingel and T.J. Tynan were taken in later drafts. Both Dzingel and Tynan are legitimate prospects now playing in the NCAA and do have some hope of one day playing in the NHL. If Muir wants to get even that far, he'll need to keep developing his skills while at the same time putting some more muscle on his 6'3'' frame.</p>
<p>The Oilers obviously feel that Muir has the potential to make the necessary improvements. I'm not going to say that he absolutely can't make it, but would consider Muir to have some of the longest odds to make the NHL among prospects currently in the organization.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/2/4485728/aidan-muir-a-closer-lookScott Reynolds2013-07-01T16:29:59-06:002013-07-01T16:29:59-06:00Bogdan Yakimov - A Closer Look
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j3yAW4Ynj8fhx_-lcOjTq9h7-Yk=/142x40:389x205/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15741457/bogdan_yakimov.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Derek Leung</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Edmonton Oilers</a> turned the 37th pick in the 2013 draft into the 83rd, 88th, 94th, 96th, and 113th selections. The first player they picked in that bundle was Bogdan Yakimov, a <a href="http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/06/03/nhl-draft-combine-2013-heights-and-weights/">6'4''</a> Russian center who has played all of his hockey in Russia.</p>
<p>Yakimov spent the 2012-13 season playing in the Vysshaya Hokkeinaya Liga (VHL), which is Russia's second-best professional league. He finished in a tie for 73rd in the league in points per game (min. 15 games), but finished 3rd among all players under twenty years old:</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2866459/Bogdan_Yakimov.jpg" class="photo" alt="Bogdan_yakimov"><br id="1372713710214"></p>
<p>The league has only been in existence for three seasons, so having Nichushkin show up there is helpful in providing some kind of standard for what might be considered good. A look at the top ten U-20 seasons ever (i.e. in the last three years) helps to show that this isn't a league where young players generally have success, but it doesn't add much in the way of familiar names:</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2866507/Bogdan_Yakimov.jpg" class="photo" alt="Bogdan_yakimov"><br id="1372714477734"></p>
<p>A look back at Yakimov's performance in the MHL, Russia's top junior league, in 2011-12 helps to position him in more familiar territory. In the chart below, we're looking at the Draft -1 performance of players who were drafted inside the top 100 in 2011, 2012, or 2013.</p>
<p><img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2866515/Bogdan_Yakimov.jpg" class="photo" alt="Bogdan_yakimov"><br id="1372714805803"></p>
<p>Yakimov's performance is a step back from most of these players, and he's half a year older than all of them, which paints a less rosy picture. Then again, his position here probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise since all of the other players on this chart were taken earlier in the draft. It does, however, suggest that Yakimov probably has some significant issues that will need to be addressed if he's ever going to make it to the NHL.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1540">Corey Pronman</a> helps to identify what some of those issues might be:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>His hands are above average, and while he can certainly make some moves and carry the puck into the opposing zone, he is not an overly creative forward.... His main issue is his skating, as it is below average. His top speed and his first few steps are subpar, and while has shown some improvement, he must continue to progress in that area.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.isshockey.com/">International Scouting Services</a> seems to agree with this assessment, classifying his skating as "good" which is code for "poor" (of their 100 top-ranked players six had "excellent" skating, sixty "very good" skating, twenty-seven "good" skating, and seven had "average" skating), but Yakimov did receive higher grades in the other categories.</p>
<p>One thing that ISS identified as a potential issue for scouts was Yakimov's non-presence at international events, which could make his progress (or lack thereof) difficult to gauge. Yakimov didn't play in any international events at all this season. He missed the World Junior Championships at Christmas because he didn't make the team, and by the time the U-18 tournament came around at the end of the season Yakimov was too old to participate. Combine that non-participation with the league he played in, and it seems quite possible that many teams saw him very little or not at all this year, helping them to forget Yakimov's strong performance at the 2012 U-18 tournament where he led Russia in scoring with seven points in six games.</p>
<p>That last point is probably what has me most hopeful. It's quite possible that Yakimov has taken a substantial step forward, but that it's a step forward that's gone largely unnoticed. He's slated to play in the KHL during the 2013-14 season with <font color="#000000">Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (Nail Yakupov's old team), and his play there will be very telling. Let's hope it tells us something we want to hear. <br></font></p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/1/4483224/bogdan-yakimov-a-closer-lookScott Reynolds2013-07-01T06:30:05-06:002013-07-01T06:30:05-06:00Edmonton's 2013 Draft - First Impressions
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-BLgp72WzrsxWIhrcLkse9DokjU=/107x0:579x315/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15693821/bogdan_yakimov.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Derek Leung</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I think the draft is a good time to remember that we're all fans here and that being a fan can be difficult. As fans, we have no direct influence on decision-making, and yet we're emotionally invested in the decisions that the team makes. Those of us that follow the draft closely sometimes find this time particularly difficult. Decisions come fast and furious, and those decisions usually don't line up with what I would have figured was optimal. As such, this post isn't really an attempt to judge whether or not the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a> drafted exactly as I would have liked, but rather, an attempt to judge whether or not they acted reasonably.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The First Round</b></p>
<p>The first round is, by far, the best chance the Oilers had to add a star player, and thus by far the most important part of the draft. Whatever else happened, it was important to get this right. So when the Oilers drafted Darnell Nurse seventh overall, I was content.</p>
<p>He wasn't at the top of my list at that time (<a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/30/4479412/the-final-draft-list-2013">that would have been Valeri Nichushkin</a>), but <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/7/4405194/darnell-nurse-draft-comparables">my earlier analysis of Nurse</a> suggested that players with his statistical profile drafted in about that spot tend to become top-four defensemen in the NHL, and tend to play their first full season within two years of being drafted. Because of the fact that he was behind a couple of other defensemen on his team for power play time, there's also some potential for offensive upside. That's an attractive package (especially when the package is 6'5''), and I had Nurse among a group of nine players that I thought were well clear of the rest in the draft.</p>
<p>That the Oilers chose Nurse over Nichushkin (and Rasmus Ristolainen) is surely reasonable, and he may turn out to be the best player of those three. <a href="http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=675765&navid=DL%7CEDM%7Chome">Craig MacTavish</a> believes he will, but he did a good job explaining that there's a measure of uncertainty just after the draft:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Our overriding drafting objective is to draft the player that's going to have the greatest impact on our team over time, and based on that philosophy I thought that Darnell was the guy that best fit that bill. You don't know whether that's going to be the case, but you take as much information as you possibly can and try to spit that answer out. I think we got it right, but time will tell.</p>
</blockquote>
<p></p>
<p>He also apparently believes in fate:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There were just signs for me all over the place, just little things. I got on the plane a couple of months ago, I open the paper, I'm coming back from Europe, and I see Darnell Nurse's sister on the cover of the sports page, and I'm going, 'That's telling me something.'</p>
</blockquote>
<p></p>
<p>He was probably about 90% joking, but when it gets tough to decide between two players... yeah... I don't want to think about that. Anyroad, what the Oilers didn't do was reach outside of the first cluster of nine with the seventh overall pick or trade down into the teens to add later picks. They avoided making a big mistake, and that's worth celebrating!</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The Second Round</b></p>
<p>This is the second most important section of the draft, and the Oilers came in with two picks. Craig MacTavish talked a lot about trading the picks for help at the NHL level, but that didn't happen. Instead, he traded the 37th pick for the 57th, 88th and 96th picks, and then flipped the 57th pick for the 83rd, 94th and 113th picks. Both of these deals struck me as being poor, both because there was a player I really liked available when the trades were made (Artturi Lehkonen at 37 and William Carrier at 57) and because they seemed like poor value based on <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up">Eric Tulsky's previous work on what it has historically cost teams to move up in the draft using later draft picks</a>.</p>
<p>There's not much else to be said about that first point. I had <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/22/4447424/artturi-lehkonen-draft-comparables">Lehkonen ranked 13th overall</a>, and exactly 30 NHL teams disagreed with me on that. He's no doubt hoping that I'm right and the folks who get paid to have an opinion are wrong, but it's pretty tough to blame the Oilers for being one of thirty teams who passed on a prospect I liked.</p>
<p>The second point, however, is interesting because of what MacTavish and Stu MacGregor had to say after the draft. MacTavish was asked, "In the trading down of picks, is it I guess a case where at that point it's almost a crapshoot so three crapshoots is better than one?" It's hilarious that this is a viable question, but (thanks be to God) MacTavish did not answer in the affirmative:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>No, it's a little more exact than that. The guys that we employ to make some of those decisions, we actually have a rating of all the picks, and it's a simple mathematical calculation: over time, what gives you your best opportunity, what increases your odds of hitting some core players. And so we base those decisions largely on that template.</p>
</blockquote>
<p></p>
<p>It's a reasonable explanation. Their formula obviously differs from St. Louis and Los Angeles, which is a wee bit frightening, but it's at least a sensible answer. It's also an answer that MacTavish clearly believes. <a href="http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=675765&navid=DL%7CEDM%7Chome">Stu MacGregor</a> offered a similar explanation, but I'm not convinced that he isn't thinking more like the crapshoot guy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>When you get that opportunity to have more darts, it seems to be, if you look at the numbers and everything else, it adds up that it's of value to make the trade we did.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can tell which guy believes in the math and which guy is just kind of being blown along by the new wind. Anyroad, it'll be interesting to try to figure out why the Oilers believe what they do about finding core players with these later picks over an early second round pick.</p>
<p>As for the one guy they actually picked, I'll take a more detailed look at Marc-<span class="sbn-auto-link">Olivier Roy</span> this afternoon, but at first blush he seems like a reasonable bet at 56th overall. One thing that gives me confidence in the pick is MacTavish's description of the selection process (emphasis mine):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Marc-Olivier I don't know all that well. <i><b>I've never seen him play</b></i>, but he really fit the criteria of a skill guy that has a chance to be an impact player.</p>
</blockquote>
<p></p>
<p>How awesome is that? They chose a guy out of the QMJHL in the second round and the team's General Manager <i>has never seen him play</i>. He is relying exclusively on his amateur scouts and possibly some kind of analytical formula. I know that this might be coming across as sarcastic, but I really, truly, honest-to-God think that this is both good and hilarious.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The Later Rounds</b></p>
<p>The Oilers did were pretty clearly trying to find skilled players who had been overlooked by other teams for one reason or another a lot in this draft. Bogdan Yakimov (83rd OV) and Anton Slepyshev (88th OV) are both Russians playing in Russia; Kyle Platzer (96th OV) is a small scorer with just 28 points in 86 games with London because <a href="https://twitter.com/MargannLaurissa/statuses/351495648358576128">he was buried on the fourth line</a>; and Aidan Muir (113th OV) was 108th among NA skaters on the final Central Scouting list, but he wasn't ranked inside the top 200 by most of the major scouting agencies and played AAA Midget in 2012-13.</p>
<p>Jackson Houck (94th OV), Evan Campbell (128th OV), Ben Betker (158th OV), and Gregory Chase (188th OV) strike me as being more conventional late-round picks with more conventional problems (WHL but not enough offense, BCHL over-ager, WHL defensive defender, WHL not enough offense), but they all seem to have potential as actual hockey players. I know sets the bar awfully low, but as we take the time to learn more about each individual (I'll profile a couple of players each day this week), it'll be easier to make some judgments.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>
<p>The Oilers did fine in the first round, may have screwed up in a principled way in the second with the two trades, and seem to have done some decent work later on. My draft would have looked awfully different (I can't resist: Valeri Nichushkin at 7, Artturi Lehkonen at 37, William Carrier at 57, Juuso Ikonen at 128, Andreas Johnson at 158, and Jaedon Descheneau at 188), but that doesn't mean the Oilers did poorly. It's pretty evident that they spent the day looking for players who might provide real value down the line, and I'll be cheering hard for all ten guys they picked to get there.</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/1/4481910/edmonton-oilers-2013-draft-first-impressionsScott Reynolds