The Copper & Blue - Readers Run The Show: Lead The Oilers To SuccessA site for fans of the Edmonton Oilers. Someday we'll get to write about an Oilers playoff game. Hopefully sooner than later.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/13253/copper-fave.jpg2013-03-29T10:23:33-06:00http://www.coppernblue.com/rss/stream/38982692013-03-29T10:23:33-06:002013-03-29T10:23:33-06:00Don't get lost in the desert
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<figcaption>Harry How</figcaption>
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<p>Get lost in a rebuild and wander the desert for 40 years...</p> <p>Zdeno's Cigar is back with <a target="_blank" href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/28/4157284/iginla-re-builds-and-wandering-the-desert">more advice for building a team and staying competitive throughout a rebuild</a>, or, more accurately, a retool:</p>
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<p>Take the <a href="https://www.fearthefin.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">San Jose Sharks</a> for instance. San Jose has been a model NHL club for the past decade or so ... but the team is ageing and has lost its elite edge. So what does management do? They've traded a depreciating asset for two quality draft picks, and my bet is that there's more to come. San Jose likely won't scorch the earth entirely, but they will re-engineer the team in a way that will make them younger and ultimately more competitive in the future, but what they won't do is delay the inevitable and obtain returns of cents on the dollar.</p>
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<p>But if you take the risk and tear the entire franchise apart in the name of a "rebuild", there's every chance the people in charge of the rebuild won't be able to break the cycle.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/29/4156752/stop-wandering-the-desert-and-make-marginal-improvementsCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-27T09:00:06-06:002013-03-27T09:00:06-06:00Sign Ladislav Smid
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<figcaption>Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Ladislav Smid's price tag might be high, but the cost of not signing him might be even higher.</p> <p>Edmonton's defense hasn't been very good the last couple of years, and allowing Ladislav Smid to walk in unrestricted free agency would only make things worse. <a href="http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5672">Tyler Dellow thinks the Oilers can pony up $4 million a season over 4 years</a> for Smid's services:</p>
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<p>What do I think the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a> should do? Assuming a price of between $4MM and $4.25MM, I think that they should sign him and shoot for a four year term. They’re a rich team and it would make sense for them to front load the deal. If, say, they went $6MM, $4MM, $3MM and $3MM, it permits Smid to serve as a sort of transitional player to the Oilers defencemen who are developing elsewhere at the moment and, barring some catastrophic injury, ensures that they can move him on to someone else if they decide that they no longer need him in Edmonton and probably makes him a more valuable commodity if they were to do so.</p>
<p>I get that Smid has his flaws as a player but the overriding thing to me is the fact that he is an honest to goodness top four defenceman in the NHL and the Oilers don’t have any sure bets for the next two years in that spot. I am certainly open to arguments that the NHL as a whole fails to properly value players with Smid’s skills – defencemen who can eat minutes without a lot of puck skill – but I don’t know how you can make much of an argument that guys like him, this close to free agency, tend to get less than $4MM over less than six years. I’m also not particularly confident in the Oilers’ ability to pick out classes of players who are overpriced.</p>
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<p>There are only three other defensemen available in unrestricted free agency who are capable of top four minutes, not an age risk and not an injury risk: <span>Rob Scuderi</span>, <span>Ian White</span> and <span>Marek Zidlicky</span>. Top four defensemen are going to be paid a premium in July and both the Oilers and <span>Ladislav Smid's</span> agent must realize this. If the Oilers can't sign Smid, they may be involved in a bidding war for Scuderi or White.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/27/4145602/oilers-importance-signing-ladislav-smidCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-24T20:05:19-06:002013-03-24T20:05:19-06:00The Oilers Are Doing Well Later In The Draft
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<figcaption>John Grieshop</figcaption>
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<p>Keep Stu in place - let him keep firing.</p> <p>curcro is back with another draft study, this time <a target="_blank" href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/23/4138306/follow-up-1st-round-screwups-vs-later-round-draft-genies">dividing out first round draft picks from the later rounds and analyzing draft performance</a>:</p>
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<p>the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a> actually perform very well in the drafts later rounds. In fact their late round success belies that they should have more success in the playoffs as you can see that there is a correlation between late round success and playoff results.</p>
<p>The Bluejackets drafting seems to be at least part of their problem, they have consistently had higher picks, so it is reasonable that their performance in the 1st round should be higher, but once they have those in the bag their drafting is considerably worse.</p>
<p>The Oilers have an opposite problem, drafting horribly in the 1st Round and well after that.</p>
<p>Bringing Stu MacGregor on board was a good thing, it has enabled the Oilers to at least draft 1st Round players.</p>
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<p>MacGregor's recent later round picks leave something to be desired, but if he can get a couple of late bloomers to come around, he may be able to duplicate his performance.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/24/4143486/stu-macgregor-isnt-the-problemCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-24T19:50:15-06:002013-03-24T19:50:15-06:00Use Offer Sheets To Finish The Rebuild
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<figcaption>Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The best way to end the eternal rebuild is to use offer sheets to bring in talented defensemen and forwards.</p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/24/4139600/the-year-of-the-poach">Forget the draft, forget the competition of unrestricted free agency, it's all about offer sheets in restricted free agency</a>, says frequent contributor <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/users/curcro" rel="author">curcro</a>:</p>
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<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a>, have Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen and Peckham of note. But they currently have $20.8M to sign 6 players.</p>
<p>If Smid signs for $3.8M , Paajarvi for $1.8M, Hartikainen for $1.2M, that leaves $13.2M for 3 players including Gagner and possibly Fistric. Say $5M & 1.5M each.</p>
<p>That leaves $7.5 M for poaching & player/goalie. Without too much effort and not huge over payments either you maybe able to poach a decent player. Keep in mind the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blueshirtbanter.com/">Rangers</a> have already used 1 of their buyouts.</p>
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<p>curcro isn't aiming high on his offer sheets and keeps the targets lower-end and mostly depth-type players. With a really weak pool of defensemen in unrestricted free agency, curcro might be on to something with offer sheets.</p>
<p>Given that the picks used in these offer sheets would come from the 2014 draft, the impact should be minimal to the current Oilers.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/24/4143304/the-oilers-should-use-offer-sheets-in-free-agencyCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-23T11:30:06-06:002013-03-23T11:30:06-06:00The Off-season of his life
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<figcaption>Jonathan Daniel</figcaption>
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<p>The godfather of the Oilers bloggers says Steve Tambellini has his work cut out for him this summer.</p> <p><a href="http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/03/sail-on-hc-liberec.html" target="_blank">Lowetide checks the direction of the wind</a> and it seems to be blowing <span>Ladislav Smid</span> out of town, which makes the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a>' off-season to-do list somewhat lengthy:</p>
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<p>The Oilers have several off-season priorities this summer:</p>
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<li><span style="line-height: 13px;">Sign RFA"s Gagner, Paajarvi, Hartikainen, make a decision on RFA Peckham</span></li>
<li>Sign Nuge to the Hall contract</li>
<li>Make decisions on UFA’s Smid, Jones, Fistric, Petrell, Whitney and Khabibulin</li>
<li>add a backup goaltender</li>
<li>find a top 4D, lefty to go with <span>Nick Schultz</span> and <span>Oscar Klefbom</span> </li>
<li>find a top 6D, righty to go with <span>Justin Schultz</span> and <span>Jeff Petry</span> </li>
<li>offload contracts of Eager, Belanger and possibly <span>Ryan Smyth</span> </li>
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<p>If the Oilers do ship Smid out and pursue another defender via free agency, they'll be in for a fight. <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents/?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=2" target="_blank">The list of of top four defenders available in unrestricted free agency</a> is one of the weakest in recent years. <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents/?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=D&fa_type_id=1" target="_blank">The restricted free agent list</a>, on the other hand, is plentiful and ready for harvest.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/23/4135014/uneasy-summer-for-steve-tambellini-oilersCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-23T07:40:37-06:002013-03-23T07:40:37-06:00WSSTD?
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<figcaption>Dilip Vishwanat</figcaption>
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<p>(Besides resign)?</p> <p>No one spends more time thinking through roster moves and team development than gcw_rocks. He's involved in all of our discussions centered around the draft, free agency, trades and team building. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/22/4137108/what-should-steve-tambellini-do-besides-resign">In his contribution to our Readers Run The Show discussion</a>, he lays out his approach to the trade deadline and using it to shape discussions as the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.coppernblue.com/">Oilers</a> head towards the draft and free agency.</p>
<p>His thoughts are shaped around around trading away impending free agents Laddy Smid, <span>Mark Fistric</span>, <span>Ryan Whitney</span>, and <span>Ryan Jones</span> to set up his off-season acquisition plan:</p>
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<p>Steve-o has some significant decisions to make prior to the trade deadline. He has Laddy Smid, <span>Mark Fistric</span>, <span>Ryan Whitney</span>, and <span>Ryan Jones</span> as impending free agents. He has too many 6/7 defensemen. And he has to decide is he a buyer, a seller, or both. Tough situation to be in when making decisions is not your strong suit. What to do, what to do?</p>
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https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/23/4138548/what-should-steve-tambellini-doCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-22T10:58:17-06:002013-03-22T10:58:17-06:00Find Value Now
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<figcaption>Kirk Irwin</figcaption>
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<p>The Oilers have a roster full of young talent, and that talent is going to cost a ton of money very soon. The key to winning now is finding value.</p> <p>So the easy part, being the worst team in the league for six seasons and drafting the consensus number one players three straight years in the entry draft and waiting on them to crack the lineup is over and done with. So what comes next for the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a>?</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/21/4132984/value-contracts-for-the-oilers-to-pursue-at-the-deadline-or-seasons">Frequent commenter Zdeno's Cigar says the key to the next stage of the rebuild</a> is finding key contributors and getting value out of them. To that end, he covets a stud defenseman, a big gritty forward, a couple of 20 minute a night defenders, one of which "is -2 on what is undoubtedly the worst team coming out of the lockout", a big forward that's never quite hit his potential, but "never been a minus player over his NHL career" and an underrated guy who will be a certain "upgrade from <span>Ryan Jones</span>."</p>
<p>Should be easy right? Probably not, which leads us into the next update in our series.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/22/4135886/the-key-to-ending-the-oilers-rebuild-valueCopper and Blue Staff2013-03-22T09:42:34-06:002013-03-22T09:42:34-06:00Don't touch the amateur scouts
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<figcaption>Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>A reader analyzes amateur scouting and determines that amateur scouting is not the issue.</p> <p>Frequest contributor curcro wonders if it's the draft that's doing the <a href="https://www.coppernblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oilers</a> in and <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/21/4130774/whats-wrong-with-the-oilers-amateur-scouting-analysis" target="_blank">crunches the numbers to find out</a>:</p>
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<p>Based on the Oilers draft skill being about 10th in the conference, the Oilers did need an upgrade in this department at this stage, but the fact that they were not worst in the league, means that there drafting during this period was not the source of their woes.</p>
<p>Detroit did the best job of outperforming their drafting abilities, was it coaching, development, or GM.</p>
<p>LA & Minnesota underperformed how they drafted the most (although LA's Cup goes along way to erasing that issue).</p>
<p>What about 2007-2012, it is likely too soon to make any judgements about this. But using the same criteria the Oilers are well placed. The Oilers scouting is actually doing a reasonable job picking players(many of the numbers are being provided on the backs of the chosen ones - but credit where credit is due, it is far from a complete screw up).</p>
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<p>Leave Stu MacGregor's group alone and look to fix other internal issues, curcro recommends.</p>
https://www.coppernblue.com/2013/3/22/4135180/amateur-scouting-is-not-the-problemCopper and Blue Staff