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The Edmonton Oilers 2016 Death March - Tragic Number Update for March 5

We know that the Oilers aren't going to make the playoffs. How close are we to it being official?

By ryan_batty
Dave Sandford/Getty Images

It's March now and for Oilers fans this doesn't mean thinking about the playoffs, or at least it hasn't for quite a while, for us it means counting down to being officially eliminated from the playoffs. And this year when it happens it'll be a big deal as it'll be the tenth straight season without playoff hockey. A full decade. An accomplishment matched only by the Florida Panthers who missed the playoffs from ten straight seasons between 2000/2001 and 2010/11; thanks to the lockout season Panthers fans actually had 11 years between playoff appearances.

So how do things look for the Oilers right now?

First up the Pacific Division. The tragic number is the total number of points a team needs to pick up, or the Oilers lose, in order for that team finish ahead of the Oilers. It's pretty clear at this point which three teams from the Pacific Division will be making the playoffs and it won't be the Oilers.

Team GP W L OTL ROW PTS Tragic Number
Los Angeles 63 38 21 4 36 80 8
Anaheim 63 36 19 8 33 80 8
San Jose 63 35 22 6 32 76 12
Vancouver 63 24 27 12 20 60 28
Arizona 64 27 31 6 26 60 28
Edmonton 67 25 35 7 21 57 -
Calgary 64 26 34 4 24 56 32

Up next the wild card standings.

Team GP W L OTL ROW PTS Tragic Number
Chicago 66 40 21 5 39 85 -
Dallas 66 39 20 7 37 85 -
St. Louis 66 37 20 9 33 83 -
Los Angeles 63 38 21 4 36 80 8
Anaheim 63 36 19 8 33 80 8
San Jose 63 35 22 6 32 76 12
Nashville 65 32 21 12 29 76 12
Minnesota 65 30 25 10 30 70 18
Colorado 66 33 29 4 30 70 18
Vancouver 63 24 27 12 20 60 28
Arizona 64 27 31 6 26 60 28
Winnipeg 63 26 32 5 24 57 31
Edmonton 67 25 35 7 21 57 -
Calgary 64 26 34 4 24 56 32

18 points, some combination of nine wins and losses, that's all that stands between the Oilers and it being official that the team will miss the playoffs for a tenth straight season. Should take two, maybe two and a half, weeks. And then we can all get onto other things. Things like the draft lottery. Speaking of which.

Team GP W L OTL ROW PTS 82 Game Pace 1st Overall Odds
Toronto 63 21 32 10 16 52 68 20.0%
Edmonton 67 25 35 7 21 57 70 13.5%
Calgary 64 26 34 4 24 56 72 11.5%
Winnipeg 63 26 32 5 24 57 74 9.5%
Buffalo 65 26 31 8 25 60 76 8.5%
Arizona 64 27 31 6 26 60 77 7.5%
Vancouver 63 24 27 12 20 60 78 6.5%
Columbus 65 27 30 8 22 62 78 6.0%
Montreal 65 30 29 6 25 66 83 5.0%
Ottawa 65 30 28 7 24 67 85 3.5%
New Jersey 66 31 28 7 29 69 86 3.0%
Carolina 65 29 26 10 29 68 86 2.5%
Colorado 66 33 29 4 30 70 87 2.0%
Philadelphia 63 29 23 11 27 69 90 1.0%

Using these odds and nhllotterysimulator.com this is the draft order I came up with today. Not a win for the Oilers, but second overall isn't bad. And the Leafs slide all the way to fourth. That's a trade off that I could handle.

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