Weekly Odds Forecast May 3-9

Guess what? There’s not going to be a lot of variety in this week’s odds forecast. The Oilers play the Canucks four times, and they, of course, have no games against anyone else. The good news is that my model thinks the Canucks suck, and so do gambling industry models, so, it’s looking like there’s a very good chance that the Oilers will end the season as the two seed in the North Division.

Here are the odds:

Monday, May 3rd - Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks

My model: Oilers (65%), Canucks (25%), based on these numbers, who should bet on the Oilers if you can find them at a bigger price than 1.54.

Bet 365’s prices: Oilers (1.45), Canucks (2.80), my model doesn’t suggest that betting on the Canucks is a good idea, unless you can find them at a higher price than 2.84, which is (just barely) not the case in tonight’s matchup, at least according to this one bookmaker.

365’s implied probabilities (margin removed): Oilers (66%), Canucks (34%)

The rest of the week

Obviously the result of each of these contests will have an impact on the probabilities, and, therefore the betting lines. But, this is a 7-day forecast, and I can just tell you that as of right now my odds are the same as tonight’s for each of the three other Oilers-Canucks matchups this week.

Meanwhile, in CondorsTown...

The Condors also have 7 games remaining in their regular season, and, much like the Oilers, they play four this week. Here’s how they look:

Monday, May 3rd - Condors vs. Barracuda

Condors (70%), Barracuda (30%)

Bet 365’s odds:

Barracuda (1.80), Condors (1.95)

This is not a good sign. The Barracuda are favoured, and I’m not in tune enough with AHL roster news to tell you why. So, I’m going to make a small bet on the Condors. Why the hell not?

Wednesday, May 5th - Condors vs. Colorado Eagles

Condors (64%), Eagles (36%)

Friday, May 7th - Condors vs. Colorado Eagles

Condors (64%), Eagles (36%)

Saturday, May 8th - Condors vs. San Diego Gulls

Condors (60%), Gulls (40%)

That’s it for this week. Sorry for publishing only 20 minutes before the Condors’ first game starts. Good luck, folks!