clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Game Odds Forecast April 13-18

A Mostly Bakersfield Edition

NHL: Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

The Oilers don’t play much this week. They have a game scheduled on Friday against the Canucks, but there’s a very good chance that one won’t be played, which could mean that it’s just a one-game week on the docket.

But, The Condors play four times this week, so this weekly column will not be the shortest one ever.

Here are my projections:

Friday, April 16 vs. Vancouver Canucks:

Oilers (62%), Canucks (38%)

Saturday, April 17 vs. Winnipeg Jets:

Oilers (54%), Jets (46%)

As I said on this week’s podcast, the Jets are very likely going to be the Oilers’ first round opponent in the playoffs, and, as it stands now, that would make the Oilers a favourite to win a playoff series this year.

This is despite the fact that the Jets have the inside track on home-ice advantage (which is basically irrelevant, at least in comparison to normal seasons).

The Oilers would definitely be underdogs in a series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and, based on both my model, and gambling industry lines from their recent encounters, it seems clear that the Oilers would also be underdogs in a hypothetical matchup against the Montreal Canadiens. So, this Jets-Oilers matchup is a best-case scenario for Oilers fans, from an odds perspective. Let’s hope Saturday’s Hockey Night in Canada game is a preview of things to come.

Here are my model’s current end-of-season points projections for the North Division (assuming 56 games played for each team):

Maple Leafs - 78.7 points

Oilers- 69.5 points

Jets - 69.4 points

Canadiens - 67.3 points

Flames - 55.0 points

Canucks - 54.2 points

Senators - 44.7 points

Meanwhile, in CondorsTown...

The Condors got back on track to looking like the juggernaut my model thinks they are this past week. They took care of business against Ontario and San Jose, but, even more impressive was their 5-3 win against the Henderson Silver Knights on Friday night. Last week, I said that game would be a good litmus test for the Condors, and they passed with flying carpets.

Here are my projections for this week’s four games:

Tuesday, April 13th @ Colorado Eagles:

Condors (61%), Eagles (39%)

Bet 365 odds:

Condors (1.80), Eagles (1.95)

Implied probability (margin removed):

Condors (52%), Eagles (48%)

My model would indicate that there is value on the Condors at anything bigger than 1.64, so, if my model is right (and it may not be, because it’s always REALLY high on the Condors), 1.80 on the moneyline, and 3.20 on the puck line look like good bets tonight.

Wednesday, April 14th @ Colorado Eagles:

Condors (61%), Eagles (39%)

Friday, April 16th @ Ontario Reign:

Condors (71%), Eagles (29%)

Saturday, April 17th San Diego Gulls @ Bakersfield Condors:

Condors (59%), Gulls (41%)

Four winnable games in a row this week. Although, every game is winnable for this Condors team. But, it’s also worth keeping in mind that, despite these high odds, these win percentages indicate that the chance of the Condors sweeping their four games this week is still only 15.6%. They a very good hockey team. But winning hockey games is still a hard thing to do.

Best of luck this week, my friends!