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Weekly Game Odds Forecast (March 22-28)

NHL: Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

After going 3-1 against the Flames and Jets last week, the Oilers are in for another big week, as they face the Montreal Canadiens three times, and also have a big Hockey Night in Canada showdown on Saturday night against the Leafs. Let’s take a look at their odds:

Monday, March 22 @ Habs:

Oilers (48%), Habs (52%)

Bet 365 Odds: Oilers (1.90), Habs (1.90)

Implied industry odds: Oilers (50%), Habs (50%)

My model still slightly prefers the Habs to the Oilers. Based on the fact that the Oilers opened at 2.1 yesterday, I would imagine that’s also true of the gambling industry’s models as well. However, the Oilers have been shortened to 1.9 since opening, so I would imagine that there are some market influencers who are higher on the Oilers, which is always nice to hear. As it stands right now, I don’t think there’s much value on either side, though I do think there was some value on the Oilers when they opened at 2.10. That doesn’t help readers of this article, of course. So, I’m sorry about that.

Wednesday, March 24 @ Habs:

Oilers (48%), Habs (52%)

Friday, March 26 @ Habs:

Oilers (48%), Habs (52%)

Saturday, March 27 @ Toronto Maple Leafs:

Oilers (46%), Leafs (54%)

To underscore the importance of these upcoming games, here’s how my model projects the end-of-season point totals for each North Division team:

Toronto Maple Leafs: 75.2

Edmonton Oilers: 70.6

Montreal Canadiens: 70.5

Winnipeg Jets: 66.3

Calgary Flames: 62.4

Vancouver Canucks: 56.4

Ottawa Senators: 45.5

Meanwhile, in CondorsTown...

The Condors’ nine-game win streak has ended, but they still went 2-1-1 last week. Let’s see how the upcoming week shapes up for them:

Wednesday, March 24 San Jose Barracuda @ Bakersfield Condors:

Condors (73%), Barracuda (27%)

Friday, March 26 @ San Diego Gulls:

Condors (71%), Gulls (29%)

Saturday, March 27 @ Ontario Reign:

Condors (73%), Reign (27%)

As you can see, my model still loves the Condors. It gives them a 37.8% chance of going a perfect 3-0 this week. This is probably a little optimistic, but, it’s far from baseless. The Condors have the AHL’s top two scorers in Cooper Marody (23 points), and Tyler Benson (20). Ryan McLeod is also tied for 5th in AHL scoring with 17 points. In fact, Marody’s 14 goals would put him in the top-20 in AHL scoring even if he hadn’t recorded a single assist. So, the Condors have plenty of firepower.