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Weekly Odds Forecast (March 1-7)

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

After a tough 4-0 loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday, the Oilers have two more cracks at the North Division leaders this week, followed by a Battle of Alberta rivalry game on Saturday night. Let’s see what the model thinks about these three matchups?

Monday, March 1st: Toronto @ Edmonton

Maple Leafs (57%), Oilers (43%)

Bet 365 lines: Oilers (1.83) (implied 52%), Maple Leafs (2.00) (implied 48%)

The betting models like the Oilers a lot more than my model does, so, I hope they’re right. Auston Matthews is a game-time decison, I’ve assumed that he will play, but, if he doesn’t, obviously the Oilers’ odds will improve substantially.

Wednesday, March 3rd: Toronto @ Edmonton

Maple Leafs (57%), Oilers (43%)

No industry lines out yet.

Saturday, March 6th: Calgary @ Edmonton

Oilers (53%), Flames (47%)

No industry lines out yet.

Meanwhile, in CondorsTown...

The Condors had their lone scheduled game of last week postponed, against the San Jose Barracuda. Assuming their game against the Barracuda gets played this Wednesday, the Condors will play three games this week.

Wednesday, March 3rd: San Jose @ Bakersfield

Condors (34%), Barracuda (66%)

Keep in mind that these AHL probabilities are still based on a small sample size (especially in San Jose’s case). There are no expected goals factored into the calculations, as there is for the NHL projections, so take them with an even larger grain of salt.

Saturday, March 6th: Ontario Reign @ Bakersfield Condors

Condors (69%), Reign (31%)

Sunday, March 7th: Bakersfield Condors @ Ontario Reign

Condors (69%), Reign (31%)

No fans means no home-ice advantage, for the time being.