Coming off a slow, 2 games for the Oilers last week, we get more action this week, with games on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. The first two are against our good friends, the Ottawa Senators, and the final contest is against our not-so-good friends, the Montreal Canadiens.
Also, south of the border, The Condors play their first wo home games of the season, in Bakersfield, against the new kids on the block, the Henderson Silver Knights, Vegas’ new farm team.
Because it’s so early in the season, and I don’t have 2019-20 data on the Silver Knights, I will be skipping the AHL game odds forecast this week, for hopefully the only time this season. The Condors lost both of their matchups in San Diego, against what I believe to be formidable Gulls team this past weekend.
Monday, February 8th: Oilers @ Senators
My forecast: Oilers (64%), Senators (36%), Total Goals: 6.1
Bet 365 odds: Oilers (1.52), Senators (2.67), Total Goal line: 6.5, favouring the over at 1.76
Implied probability (margin removed): Oilers (64%), Senators (36%)
Bet?: The moneyline is perfectly in line with my model, so no bets on either team, but the under looks somewhat enticing. I know that may sound crazy, because these two teams combined for over 13 goals a little over a week ago, but Ottawa seemed to have tightened things up against Montreal last week, and the most recent meeting between these two teams would’ve gone under 6.5.
Tuesday, February 9th: Oilers at Senators
Odds will be pretty much the same for my model, pending a few changes based on how things play out tonight. Industry lines still aren’t out for this game, of course, and likely won’t be until Tuesday morning.
Thursday, February 11th: Oilers @ Canadiens
My forecast: Canadiens (66%), Oilers (34%), Total Goals: 5.7
There are no industry lines out for this game yet, of course, but, I would suspect that my model will be favouring the Habs more strongly than industry will be. The Habs have been killing it by expected goal metrics so far this season. They are very good, but I think that my model, which is heavily based on expected goals in the early going, is a little too high on them.
I don’t think it would be wise for me to tell you that the Habs are a must play at 1.6, even though my model would suggest that they are plus even value at that price. But if you can get them in the 1.7 or higher range, I would probably suggest doing that.
Finally, here are my model’s current end-of-season points projections for the seven teams in the North Division:
- Canadiens - 84.5 points
- Maple Leafs - 82.6 points
- Flames - 72.5 points
- Jets - 66.5 points
- Oilers - 63.2 points
- Canucks - 49.9 points
- Senators - 44.9 points