The Oilers are on a bit of a heater right now, which is fantastic. They’ve pushed the Flames into dire straights with two wins against them last week, and they have the opportunity to put the Canucks into an even worse situation this week, though both upcoming games are in Vancouver. I don’t think that really means anything, in a season of no in-person attendance, but, we’ll see how things work out.
Here are my forecast odds for the Oilers’ three games this week:
Tuesday, February 23 @ Vancouver Canucks:
Edmonton Oilers (61%), Vancouver Canucks (39%), projected total goals: 6.0
There are no gambling industry lines out for this game yet, but my odds would suggest that there is value on the Oilers at anything over 1.65 on the moneyline, and value on the Canucks at anything over 2.54 on the moneyline. The Canucks were a pick against Winnipeg (a game they ended up losing in OT) yesterday, so this may be an opportunity to find value on the Oilers, although their perceived strength has not gone unnoticed in the gambling industry either. They were fairly big favourites against the Flames on Saturday, after opening as slight dogs against Calgary on Friday.
Thursday, February 25 @ Vancouver Canucks:
Same odds as Tuesdays game until more is known about goaltending matchup, Tuesday’s result, etc.
Saturday, February 27 vs Toronto Maple Leafs, in Edmonton (5pm MT, early game on HNIC):
Oilers (41%), Leafs (59%), Total goals: 5.8
According to these projections, the Leafs will have value if their decimal odds price is above 1.70, and the Oilers will have value if their price is above 2.43. I would expect the odds to be closer to that, so my model will probably suggest a bet on the Leafs. They are rolling, but never underestimate a big Connor McDavid performance against Toronto.
Meanwhile, in CondorsTown...
Bakersfield got its first two wins of the season over the past weekend. They had decisive wins over the San Diego Gulls (5-1 on Friday), and Henderson Silver Knights (3-0 on Saturday). These big wins were huge after starting the season with five straight losses.
I’ve now updated my AHL model with 2021 season data, so that’s the model that will produce these projections for the remainder of the year.
The Condors play just once this week.
Thursday, February 25th @ San Jose Barracuda:
Bakersfield Condors (49%), San Jose Barracuda (51%), Total Goals: 5.4
My model suggests the Condors will have plus even value if you can find them at above 2.04 in decimal odds. You’ll be looking to bet on the Barracuda if you can find them above 1.96.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck, folks!