We’re now 11 games into the Oilers’ season, and I thought it was time that my game forecasting model was updated to run on 2021 stats, rather than stats from last season. One positive I can take from that, is that my Oilers vs Senators odds for tonight’s game look a lot closer to gambling industry odds than Sunday’s odds did. This improvement is mostly on the Senators’ side of things. They are very bad. But, the new model does think that the Oilers are a decent team. Unfortunately, it also thinks the Flames are an even better team. So, hopefully I’m not very good at this.
Here are the forecasts for this week’s two games:
Feb 2 vs Ottawa:
My projections: Oilers (66%), Senators (34%), Total goals 6.8
Gambling industry lines: Oilers (1.41), Senators (3.00), Total goals OVER 6.5 @ 1.76
Margin removed: Oilers (68%), Senators (32%)
Bet: There might be just a little bit of value on the Senators if I’m following my model, but it’s still really close on both the winner and the total goals. I’m not betting.
Feb 6 @ Calgary:
My projections: Oilers (40%), Flames (60%), Total goals 6.0
There are no lines out for a Saturday game yet, obviously, but I’d imagine that there will be some value on the Flames if you were to believe my model.
On the slightly brighter side, here are the current end-of-season projected standings points in the North Division, according to my model:
Montreal Canadiens - 87.1
Toronto Maple Leafs - 76.1
Calgary Flames - 76.0
Winnipeg Jets - 64.8
Edmonton Oilers - 64.2
Vancouver Canucks - 55.5
Ottawa Senators - 44.4
The model likes the Oilers better than the Jets going forward, but their current points % is lower, so there is some ground to make up. Also, it’s worth noting that my model rarely values the Oilers as strongly as industry lines do in game odds, so there’s a strong possibility that I’m undervaluing the Oilers, and they are on track to be a playoff team. Either way, it should be close.
The Oilers aren’t the only team in the organization playing this week. The Bakersfield Condors start their AHL season on Friday in San Diego. I threw together an AHL projection model, based off last year’s stats, that I’ll update once a sufficient sample has been played this season. Here’s how it sees the Condors’ matchups with the Gulls this weekend:
It looks like the Condors are if for a couple of Tough games in San Diego this weekend. But, hey, at least I’m sure the weather will be nice.
My model has the Gulls at a 66% chance to win each game, but, hey, at least that means that there’s about a 56% chance the the Condors win at least one of the two (Also a 44% chance they lose both). The games are projected to be high scoring, with an average projection of 6.68 goals per game.
Keep in mind that the Condors were not very good last year, and last year’s stats are the basis for these forecasts. So, if the team has improved, it won’t be factored in yet.