Weekly Game Odds Forecast Feb 15-21

Feb 15: Jets @ Oilers

My Projection: Oilers (56%) Jets (44%), Total Goals: 5.4

Bet 365 odds: Oilers (1.68), Jets (2.25), Total Goals UNDER 6.5 @ 1.86

Implied Probabilities (margin removed): Oilers (57%), Jets (43%)

Bet?: The projections are too close to industry lines to make a supremacy based bet on either team, but the UNDER looks juicy.

Feb 17: Jets @ Oilers

My Projection: Oilers (56%) Jets (44%), Total Goals: 5.4

Bet 365 odds: Not up yet, but likely very similar to lines for tonight’s game.

Feb 19: Oilers @ Flames

My projection: Flames (55%), Oilers (45%), Total Goals: 5.2

It’s worth mentioning that my model had this matchup at a 60/40 split in favour of Calgary last time they played, so the Oilers are getting closer to the Flames from the perspective of the model.

Feb 20: Flames @ Oilers

My projection: Flames (55%), Oilers (45%), Total Goals: 5.2

The model doesn’t take home ice into consideration, and I don’t plan on integrating that variable until there are fans in the stands, so for now, it doesn’t matter where the battle of Alberta is being played, the odds for both games will be the same.

Bakersfield Condors

Feb 17 vs San Diego & Feb 19 @ San Diego:

Condors (34%), Gulls (66%), Total Goals: 6.7

The AHL model is still based on last season’s stats. The Condors are 0-4 right now, and wins look like they’ll be hard to come by. They also have a game on Saturday night, against the Henderson Silver Knights, who aren’t in my model due to this being their first year on the league. Both of the Condors’ opponents this week are already 2-0 against them, so, it’ll be an uphill battle to get a win or two.