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Stanley Cup Final Gambling Preview

NHL: Stanley Cup Playoffs-Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Well, we’re finally here, it’s the Stanley Cup Final. It feels like the Oilers haven’t played in months, which, to be fair, isn’t shocking or unfamiliar. The good news is, that, if you’ve been following this series, and following my bets, you would’ve picked both Dallas and Tampa in the conference finals.

If you had put $100 on each pick, you would’ve made $267 in profit last round, mostly thanks to the Dallas Stars, which means that you would also be up $217 for the playoffs overall.

I assure you that’s nothing but dumb luck, but, just for fun, let’s see how my model assesses the final.

Stanley Cup Final: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars

Bet365’s series odds: Tampa (1.50), Dallas (2.70)

Implied Probability: Tampa Bay (64%), Dallas (36%)

My Model’s series odds: Tampa Bay (63%), Dallas (37%)

Edge: none

If you absolutely must bet, my model would lean slightly towards Dallas, but the price would need to be bigger than 2.70 for me to make that bet. As it stands, the bookmaker’s margin is enough to cover Dallas’ edge.

This means that my bets are done for this season’s playoffs. And, thankfully, they were profitable this year. Thanks for reading, and if you can find the right price somewhere, best of luck to you with your bets!