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Hot Links: Friday, September 18

Pilfering from Arizona while the pilfering is good, Athanasiou on the block, UFA targets, 31 thoughts, Edmonton lands WJHC for next two years, and MORE!

By flarwick

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Edmonton Oilers v Chicago Blackhawks Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images

Morning, folks!

Hope you’re all finding ways to stay sane now that we’re only a series away from the end of the season. Secure that sanity before it’s all over just in case it’s a long while before the NHL comes back.

As Jeff noted yesterday, the Arizona Coyotes are in financial trouble. Again. Apparently, if you listened to SN960 in Calgary this morning *spits*, you’d have heard Elliotte Friedman say that Alex Meruelo, the newest in a longer-than-it-should-be line of Coyotes owners, has buyer’s remorse. His purchase of the team was completed in August of last year. Amazing.

So what would that mean for the Oilers? Well, word is they’re kicking tires:

First, let’s look at Darcy Kuemper in 2019-20:

Top 20 Goalies (GSAA), Min. 1000 Fenwick Against

Player Season Team Position GP TOI GA SA FA xGA Sv% FSv% xFSv% dFSv% GSAA GSAx
Player Season Team Position GP TOI GA SA FA xGA Sv% FSv% xFSv% dFSv% GSAA GSAx
Tuukka Rask 19-20 BOS G 41 2401.73 85.07 1179.39 1624.73 92.38 92.79 94.76 94.31 0.45 21.5 7.31
Connor Hellebuyck 19-20 WPG G 58 3268.55 141.44 1798.05 2473.36 161.3 92.13 94.28 93.48 0.8 21.04 19.86
Anton Khudobin 19-20 DAL G 30 1677.48 60.54 872.25 1181.56 66.69 93.06 94.88 94.36 0.52 18.28 6.15
Darcy Kuemper 19-20 ARI G 29 1753.4 64.57 892.84 1253.04 73.28 92.77 94.85 94.15 0.7 16.11 8.71
Ben Bishop 19-20 DAL G 44 2473.82 104.14 1302.46 1783.74 109.85 92 94.16 93.84 0.32 13.56 5.71
Elvis Merzlikins 19-20 CBJ G 32 1815.13 69.76 918.19 1267.55 70.17 92.4 94.5 94.46 0.03 13.21 0.41
Jacob Markstrom 19-20 VAN G 43 2551.88 116.57 1417.95 1899.93 120.34 91.78 93.86 93.67 0.2 11.56 3.77
Antti Raanta 19-20 ARI G 33 1822.9 79.87 1009.92 1426.51 85.51 92.09 94.4 94.01 0.4 11.39 5.64
Pavel Francouz 19-20 COL G 34 1911.35 76.9 974 1301.33 79.58 92.1 94.09 93.88 0.21 11.11 2.68
Tristan Jarry 19-20 PIT G 33 1924.1 78.25 976.95 1314.76 79.24 91.99 94.05 93.97 0.08 10.03 0.99
Andrei Vasilevskiy 19-20 T.B G 52 3121.9 132.82 1578.79 2096.53 124.53 91.59 93.66 94.06 -0.4 9.84 -8.29
Robin Lehner 19-20 CHI G 33 1874.95 93.51 1142.54 1427.75 96.63 91.82 93.45 93.23 0.22 9.73 3.12
Corey Crawford 19-20 CHI G 40 2340.05 107.82 1295.35 1687.12 115.26 91.68 93.61 93.17 0.44 9.23 7.44
Jaroslav Halak 19-20 BOS G 31 1833.37 71.78 882.63 1234.48 74.07 91.87 94.19 94 0.19 7.98 2.29
Mikko Koskinen 19-20 EDM G 38 2115.32 97.5 1159.51 1582.65 102.51 91.59 93.84 93.52 0.32 7.28 5.01
Mackenzie Blackwood 19-20 N.J G 47 2684.02 124.74 1458.76 2000.09 124.2 91.45 93.76 93.79 -0.03 7.08 -0.54
Cam Talbot 19-20 CGY G 26 1434.65 64.63 789.9 1105.45 64.34 91.82 94.15 94.18 -0.03 6.75 -0.29
Juuse Saros 19-20 NSH G 40 2176.83 97.6 1147.03 1583.63 98.79 91.49 93.84 93.76 0.08 6.05 1.19
Linus Ullmark 19-20 BUF G 34 2026.08 90.47 1067.39 1423.52 85.66 91.52 93.64 93.98 -0.34 5.98 -4.81
Darcy Kuemper was the fourth-best G by GSAA in 2019-20. Mikko Koskinen showed well here, too. Data via @Evolving-Hockey | https://evolving-hockey.com/

That’s the second year running he’s been a top-4 goalie via Goals Saved Above Average. It’s not just a flash in the pan season either. In 2018-19, Kuemper finished third with a gaudy 24.16 GSAA. He’s been truly excellent for two years running now. Kuemper turned 30 in May and, as Jeff noted, he’s due $4.5MM for the next two seasons, which will make fitting both he and Mikko Koskinen on the same roster difficult to justify. Of course, if they’d likely have one of the better tandems in the league heading into next season, but what’s that worth in acquisition? The 14OV seems dear, but G Yaroslav Askarov’s best-case scenario is being as good as Kuemper is now, and even the most aggressive timelines likely won’t see that materialize for at least three years.

As for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, we’ve already talked about this, but:

@Evolving-Hockey | https://evolving-hockey.com/
@Evolving-Hockey | https://evolving-hockey.com/

He’s roughly Oscar Klefbom in terms of value added, but his best years are likely behind him. He had a bit of a bounce back in 2019-20, sure, but he’s had three of his worst four seasons in the last four years. Factor in that he’s due twice as much money for the next billion years, and it’s quite apparent the Oilers should steer clear.

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Andreas Athanasiou: Should Edmonton Oilers Keep, Hold Or Fold? (Journal)

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