Conference Semis Gambling Preview

The conference semi-finals are here, and this is where I tell you who I’m about to bet on. If you had bet $100 on every series pick I made last round, you would have lost $154, so, I hope you didn’t do that. However, if you had bet $100 on every playoff series that I’ve foretasted so far this year, you would still be up $35 overall.

What does that mean? Probably nothing.

Here are my picks for this upcoming round:

Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

Bet365’s odds: Avs (1.38), Stars (3.15)

Implied odds: Avs (70%), Stars (30%)

My Model’s odds: Avs (61%), Stars (39%) Edge: Dallas Stars

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Vancouver Canucks

Bet365’s odds: Vegas (1.31), Vancouver (3.60)

Implied odds: Vegas (73%), Vancouver (27%)

My Model’s odds: Vegas (65%), Vancouver (35%) Edge: Vancouver Canucks

Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Bet365’s odds: Tampa (1.76), Boston (2.10)

Implied odds: Tampa (54%), Boston (46%)

My Model’s odds: Boston (54%), Tampa (46%) Edge: Boston Bruins

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders

Bet365’s odds: Philly (1.74), Isles (2.15)

Implied odds: Philly (55%), Isles (45%)

My Model’s odds: Philly (67%), Isles (33%) Edge: Philadelphia Flyers

Overall, I’m not at all impressed by how far off my model is, relative to industry lines for these series’. A hypothetically fantastic model should almost duplicate industry lines, and perhaps expose edges where the industry has shifted towards the public, in order to protect its liabilities.

My model is almost certainly wrong here. But, I’ll be putting a small some on each of these teams, just because. I don’t really recommend it, but, assuming everyone reading this is an adult, you can do whatever you want. Good luck.