The conference semi-finals are here, and this is where I tell you who I’m about to bet on. If you had bet $100 on every series pick I made last round, you would have lost $154, so, I hope you didn’t do that. However, if you had bet $100 on every playoff series that I’ve foretasted so far this year, you would still be up $35 overall.
What does that mean? Probably nothing.
Here are my picks for this upcoming round:
Bet365’s odds: Avs (1.38), Stars (3.15)
Implied odds: Avs (70%), Stars (30%)
My Model’s odds: Avs (61%), Stars (39%) Edge: Dallas Stars
Bet365’s odds: Vegas (1.31), Vancouver (3.60)
Implied odds: Vegas (73%), Vancouver (27%)
My Model’s odds: Vegas (65%), Vancouver (35%) Edge: Vancouver Canucks
Bet365’s odds: Tampa (1.76), Boston (2.10)
Implied odds: Tampa (54%), Boston (46%)
My Model’s odds: Boston (54%), Tampa (46%) Edge: Boston Bruins
Bet365’s odds: Philly (1.74), Isles (2.15)
Implied odds: Philly (55%), Isles (45%)
My Model’s odds: Philly (67%), Isles (33%) Edge: Philadelphia Flyers
Overall, I’m not at all impressed by how far off my model is, relative to industry lines for these series’. A hypothetically fantastic model should almost duplicate industry lines, and perhaps expose edges where the industry has shifted towards the public, in order to protect its liabilities.
My model is almost certainly wrong here. But, I’ll be putting a small some on each of these teams, just because. I don’t really recommend it, but, assuming everyone reading this is an adult, you can do whatever you want. Good luck.