Sunday Morning Gambling Preview

Yikes, that was a rough one yesterday by the Oilers, eh. Well, on the bright side, if you tailed my picks from yesterday’s gambling preview, you won both your bets. So, hopefully, your slight increase in richness has offset your slight decrease in happiness due to the Oilers’ horrible showing.

Now, for some picks to help you lose that new-found money:

(I did a little gambling primer, and don’t take these pick too seriously spiel in yesterday’s article. I’m not going to repeat myself in every one of these, but, don’t get carried away, is the gist of it.)

Coyotes vs Predators:

Game 1 odds (on bet365): Preds (1.76), Yotes (2.10)

Game 1 implied odds (margin removed): Preds 54%, Yotes 46%

Model’s odds: Preds 51%, Yotes 49% Edge: Coyotes

Series odds: Preds (1.71), Yotes (2.20)

Implied odds: Preds 56%, Yotes 44%

Model’s series odds: 52% Preds, 48% Yotes Edge: Coyotes

Toronto vs. Columbus:

Game 1 odds: Leafs (1.62), Jackets (2.40)

Implied Odds (margin removed): Leafs 60%, Jackets 40%

Model’s odds: Leafs 60%, Jackets 40% Edge: None

Series Odds: Leafs (1.57), Jackets (2.55)

Implied odds: Leafs 62%, Jackets 38%

Model’s Odds: Toronto 68%, Columbus 32% Edge: Maple Leafs

Note: My theory is that my model is more bullish on the Leafs than most of the gambling industry’s models are, but that edge is nullified by a lot of public support for the always popular Leafs, which has caused the line to shift towards them in today’s game. The series odds are probably more reflective of how industry feels about them.

But, I’ve also given Toronto full home ice advantage in every game, which is probably too much. So, if you’re looking for a reason to bet on the Blue Jackets, that’s a pretty good one. I’d recommend betting on the Jackets on a game by game basis if you’re so inclined. There’s more value there, relative to the series price.

Canucks vs. Wild

Game 1 odds: Canucks (1.90), Wild (1.90)

Game 1 implied odds: 50/50

Model’s odds: Wild 52%, Canucks 48% Edge: None

Series odds: Canucks (1.80), Wild (2.05)

Series implied odds: Canucks 53%, Wild 47%

Model’s odds: Wild 54%, Canucks 46% Edge: Wild