Projected NHL Standings
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Oilers are now projected to finish between five and six points back of a playoff spot in the western conference. This is no worse than last week’s update, actually, but there is now more teams projected to finish ahead of Edmonton.
Every team projected to finish in a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is projected to finish with more than 95 points. Meanwhile, only five Western Conference teams hit that threshold.
There are only eight teams projected to finish with fewer points than the Oilers, so another top-10 pick looks like it’s in the cards.
On the bright side, the team that the Oilers are playing tonight are projected to finish dead last. So, they’ve got that going for them, which is nice. I mean, it’s no receiving total consciousness on your deathbed, but it’s fine.
Projected AHL Standings
Another Silver lining, is that it looks like there might be a playoff team in Bakersfield this year. The kids are the major contributors this year, and, according to my model (the AHL one functions very similarly to the NHL one, but uses shots rather than xG), they are a stronger squad than their current record indicates. They may actually be a pretty tough out, come playoff time. But, right now it’s all about making it, which would be huge for them.
NHL Scoring Race
Here are the current top-16 (15 including ties) point scorers in the NHL, sorted by projected final point total.
And, here are those same 16 players, sorted by the percentage of their teams’ goals on which they record a point.
Oilers upcoming projected win percentages
1/22/19: Detroit Red Wings (41%) @ Edmonton Oilers (59%); Total Goals - 5.8
Condors upcoming projected win percentages
1/23/19: Colorado Eagles (33%) @ Bakersfield Condors (67%); Total Goals - 6.4
1/25/19: Bakersfield Condors (47%) @ Tucson Roadrunners (53%); Total Goals - 6.5
1/26/19: Bakersfield Condors (47%) @ Tucson Roadrunners (53%); Total Goals - 6.5