Forecasting Ryan Strome’s 2018-19

A little more than a year ago, the Edmonton Oilers decided to move Jordan Eberle to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome. Now that Ryan Strome has finished his first year with the Edmonton Oilers, let’s take a look back and try to look into the future as well.

One of Ryan Strome’s positives is that he can play centre, and he can play at right wing. With the crater at right wing that was created by the absence of Eberle, maybe Ryan Strome could saddle up alongside Connor McDavid and watch the points roll on in.

It didn’t quite work out that way. That’s not to say that Ryan Strome’s first year with the Oilers was unsuccessful, or an anomaly. I think there was a lot of talk about Strome scoring 50 points four years ago. Rather, 2017-18 Ryan Strome is almost identical to what he’s put up so far in his career. In other words, the Ryan Strome that the Oilers got this past year is pretty much what you should expect from Ryan Strome next year, and the year after that.

SOME NUMBERS

Ryan Strome’s first season in Edmonton saw him finish with 34 points (13-21-34) with 3 game winners. He shot 8.8%, which is exactly in line with his career average (which is also 8.8%). His most common linemates were Jujhar Khaira, Jesse Puljujarvi and Milan Lucic. who were all common bottom six linemates for much of the 2017-18 season. A third line of Strome, Lucic and Jujhar Khaira probably isn’t going to bust the doors open in the goal scoring department, and 2017-18 was no exception. Both Strome and Lucic finished with 34 points each, while Jesse Puljujarvi finished with 520 points after finding himself most everywhere on the right side.

THE GOOD

When he’s on the ice with Lucic, Khaira or Puljujarvi, the ice tilts slightly in the right direction. That’s encouraging, and the longer that happens, the better things tend to be on the scoresheet.

5 ON 4

Strome’s most common linemates on the power play were Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Strome spent over half of his 140+ minutes on the powerplay with both of these players on the ice at the same time. His yield? Six points (2-4-6). Maybe that changes in 2018-19, but six points on the power play isn’t going to move the needle far enough to make a difference.

EXPECTED OUTPUT

34 points seems right in line with what to expect from Ryan Strome in 2018-19, though I think a couple more goals could make their way in with a little luck. I think that Strome’s point total will have a greater chance of increasing with the addition of a Tobias Rieder or a speedier left wing instead of Milan Lucic. If Strome is tasked with both Lucic and say, Drake Caggiula on his right side, I’d wager his outtput to be a bit more lean.

Ryan Strome’s got a bright new contract. It’s for two years, and it pulls a 3.1MM AAV over each of those two years.

What can we expect from Ryan Strome in 2018-19?