Forecasting Tobias Rieder’s 2018-19

The year was 2011. It was day 2 of the NHL Entry Draft. I was sitting in a bar drinking Unibroue with Derek Zona. The Oilers had just gotten done selecting Travis Ewanyk in the third round. I was hopeful that Ewanyk might turn into a nice little utility player, but Zona wasn’t having it. Guess who was right?

The fourth round was a little kinder to the Oilers when they selected Tobias Rieder. Rieder didn’t get a contract from the Oilers in the two years following the draft. Steve Tambellini then traded him to Arizona for Kale Kessy in the spring of 2013. Kessy would never play a game in the NHL, while Rieder has carved out an NHL career.

NUMBERS, INC

Since being dealt, Rieder has appeared in 312 NHL games, scoring 117 points. Not bad for a fourth rounder. A rookie campaign of 21 points in 74 games with the Coyotes in 2014-15, Rieder would have seasons of 37 and 34 points with the Coyotes before splitting time between Arizona and Los Angeles in 2017-18, scoring just 25 points. The Kings would not tender his qualifying offer, and Rieder became a UFA. Sort of unexpectedly, Rieder would sign a one year deal with the club that drafted him seven years prior. Cool.

RIEDERS ON THE STORM

Tobias Rieder has a career shooting percentage of 8.5. That’s on the low end of things, but he’s had higher than 10% for his last four seasons. Rieder’s most common linemates last season were none other than Brendon Perlini and Christian Dvorak. This trio failed to tilt the ice more often the not. A common line of Martin Hanzal, Tobias Rieder and Radim Vrbata fared much better in 2016-17, which could help explain the dip in points.

WHAT IS TOBIAS RIEDER?

Tobias Rieder can play all three forward positions, which can only help amplify his time on ice. Like Ryan Strome, Rieder’s season will likely go based on where he’s slotted in the lineup. I think there’s a real chance that Rieder can spend some significant time on the second line at LW with Leon Draisaitl down the middle and Jesse Puljujarvi on the right side. A second line residency will likely boost Rieder’s point total considerably. Should he appear on a third line with Milan Lucic and Ryan Strome, his totals will likely suffer. Rieder spent considerable time on the power play during his first years in the league, last year he spent only 26 minutes on ice with the man advantage. Not sure he gets in a lot of time this year, but again, it’s not like the wings are crawling with NHL talent right now.

A lot of the folks I talk to on Twitter are bullish on Ryan Strome. I’m a little bit more bullish on Rieder, especially if he gets good time on line 2. I think his numbers will compare with Strome’s if he spends time with him on line 3.