I have seen a lot of bloggers putting up their shopping list suggestions for Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers, so I thought I would add mine to the list. Before you can make a shopping list for the summer of 2018, you need to have some assumptions about what the organization will carry forward and how those assets will be used. So, to set context for my list, here are my assumptions based on messages from Oilers management:
- The team will attempt to acquire a right hand shot defender with puck moving ability
- The team will seek scoring wingers.
The other thing you need is to start with a baseline budget. Based on an $80M cap, I started with the following budget:
Dollars are in $ ,000
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Committed
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Line Budget
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Available
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1st Line
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Nuge
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McDavid
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|
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|
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Salary
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6000
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12500
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18500
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21500
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3000
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2nd Line
|
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Leon
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JP
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|
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Salary
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8500
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3000
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11500
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13500
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2000
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3rd Line
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Lucic
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Khaira
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Strome
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|
|
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Salary
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6000
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675
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2750
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9425
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9425
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0
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4th Line
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Aberg
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Rattie
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|
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Salary
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650
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|
800
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1450
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3000
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1550
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1st Pair
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Klefbom
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Larsson
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|
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Salary
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4166
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4166
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8332
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8332
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0
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2nd Pair
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Nurse
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|
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Salary
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~4500
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|
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4200
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8700
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4200
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3rd Pair
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Sekera
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Benning
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Salary
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5500
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1500
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7000
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7000
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0
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Starter
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Talbot
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4166
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4166
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4166
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0
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Back Up
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Montoya
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1100
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1100
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1100
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0
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Extras
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|
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1500
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1500
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Pouliot buy out
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1333
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0
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Totals
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65,973K
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80,056K
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12,750K
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Based on reviewing this breakdown, I added the additional assumptions:
- The team needs to sign Nurse to a deal no higher than $4.5M, and a bridge deal at $3.5M for 2 years is probably desirable, even if it costs more later.
- The team needs to trade Zach Kassian in order to free up cap space for higher lines.
- If the team wants a RHD, it needs to trade a LHD. The candidates are Klefbom, Russell and Nurse. Selling low on Klefbom is a bad idea, and as long as Nurse has reasonable contract expectations ($4.5M or less) then I would keep him. That makes Russell the odd man out.
- Strome ideally can be convinced to sign a 1-3 year deal around $2.75M. They probably can’t pay more than $3M.
With that background, here is my wish list:
Unload Kassian. If he can't be relied upon to play in the top nine, he has to go. No one on the 4th line can make more than $1M. Period.
Find two scoring wingers totaling no more than $5.5M total. Tough job, but Grabner probably make sense as one of the targets. Vanek might be another. But don't go whale hunting and for sanity’s sake, DO NOT sign these wingers past summer 2020. DO NOT give them any trade restrictions.
Go get Damon Severson. He’s not a prefect player, but there is a real buy low opportunity here. He is better than his coach thinks he is. He has some offensive ability. He can move the puck. He’s not Faulk, but he shouldn't cost as much either. Given how little assets the oilers have to spend, they need to be smart about who they target. Severson for Russell would be a nice swap for both clubs, even if the Oilers need to throw in a sweetener. The cap hits pretty much wash. Jersey gets a veteran defender to pair with Vatanen or Butcher. Edmonton gets a partner for Sekera or Nurse on the second pair who can help move the puck in the right direction.
If the Devils don't want Russell as the core of a deal, then I don’t know if the Oilers can do a deal with Shero. Severson is not worth this year’s first round pick. Nor is he worth JP. The Oilers probably could give up a left shot defence prospect like Jones, but not sure that gets the deal done.
If by some miracle Shero is willing to part with Severson for a reasonable price but does not want Russell, then the Oilers need to find another taker for Russell
Shop the bargain bin for some fourth line forwards that can kill penalties. $1M tops each.
Convince Adam Oates to join the staff and run the power play. It might mean an aggressive compensation package to pry him out of his current consulting business.
There is one more item that was on my original list, but didn't make the final list and that was upgrading the backup position. Looking how tight the Oilers cap situation is, I think they are going to be forced to pick between adding a second scoring winger or upgrade the back up. Unless Philipp Grubauer is available at a reasonable price, I think the Oilers get more bang for their buck spending $2.5M on a decent winger and staying with Montoya, then they get going bargain bin on the winger and spending more on the back up.
What they should not do is trade this year's 1st round pick. They are going to need that ELC and expansion exempt contract.
It's going to be a tough summer for the Oilers to navigate the cap and improve their team. But, I think this can be playoff team with the proposed changes. Grabner, Vanek and Severson aren't sexy choices, but they are practical ones. Sure there is a risk of Vanek and Grabner disappearing in the playoffs, but first you have to get there.
A good year by Sekera this upcoming season followed up a trade and a modest cap increase next summer will provide the team more room to improve. They need to view this as a bridge year. If they do they can get this team back on track.
So, for 2018/19, this is the team I want to see. For next year, its going to be good enough. Unless Talbot sh!ts the bed again.
1st Line
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Nuge
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McDavid
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Grabner
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2nd Line
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Vanek
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Leon
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JP
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3rd Line
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Lucic
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Khaira
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Strome
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4th Line
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Aberg
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FA
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Rattie
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1st Pair
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Klefbom
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Larsson
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2nd Pair
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Nurse
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Severson
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3rd Pair
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Sekera
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Benning
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Starter
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Talbot
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Back Up
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Montoya
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