Sekera and Fayne

Since last summer, the Oilers have struggled to carve out a solid defence core that contained a balance of skill, size and experience. And heading into the draft and free agency, it's become apparent to everyone that the OIlers will likely be making a move or two to enhance the blue line and hopefully push for a playoff spot this upcoming season.

One thing that has become lost in the discussion is the effectiveness of the Sekera-Fayne pairing this past season and why maintaining that tandem is critical for the Oilers. Sekera and Fayne played over 600 minutes together in 2015/16, the most among all pairings in Edmonton, and averaged over 23% of the team's total ice time at even-strength when together, often leading the team on a nightly basis. Whatever your position is on these two players, they were the number one pairing for the OIlers last season and actually fared well when it came to possession metrics as well as expected goals (which factors in shot location and quality as defined by Corsica Hockey).

Below, I've listed every Oilers defenece pairing that played at least 100 minutes together last season at even-strength, ranked the list by Corsi For% (adjusted) and included the expected goals measures as well.

At the top of the chart is Klefbom and Schultz, who played over 150 minutes together and posted a Corsi For% of over 55%. Their TOI% was over 20%, which indicates that they definitely played top four minutes, and likely played top line minutes. And thanks to Hockey Viz, we can confirm this and also see at which point of the season each tandem may have been playing top line minutes. We see below that the Klefbom/Schultz tandem saw heavier minutes at the start of the season, but were quickly moved away from each other before Klefbom was hurt in December.

Gryba and Davidson also posted some nice possession numbers together, but they often played second and bottom pairing minutes at even-strength. The duo did have a brief stretch around the 50 game mark playing top line minutes, but for the most part these two were slotted at the appropriate level on the roster and remained productive together. Their expected goals against per 60 was 1.87, which was 0.67 below the team average (keep in mind, negative rel numbers for events against is a good thing). Schultz and Davidson were also okay possession-wise, and limited quality chances but they too were nowhere close to being a top pairing tandem.  Fayne and Klefbom were another good pairing, have been together for about 170 minutes and getting top four minutes (see the above chart between games 11-24). Possession-wise, they were just under 51%, above the team average, but their expected goals against wasn't as good as it should've been. They did have a PDO of 94.46 together, so we have to consider some of the poor luck they might have been having.

And fifth on the list we have Sekera and Fayne who posted a 50.75% Corsi For percentage (+1.46 Rel) and a 2.20 expected goals against per 60 (-0.32 Rel). And they did this while playing the opponents top lines on a nightly basis. Also worth noting that the pair improved as the season wore on, suppressing shots and scoring chances at a very good rate to end the season. Below are their rolling averages for expected goals against/60 (blue and orange lines), compared to Nurse, Gryba and Davidson. Fayne in particular made significant improvements.

What I wanted to do next was see how the Sekera-Fayne pairing compared against similar tandems across the league this past season. To be included in the comparison pool, defence pairings had to have played at least 200 minutes together at even-strength and had a TOI% (i.e., total proportion of ice time) of over 20%. My assumption here is that defencemen who were getting a high proportion of ice time were seeing the opponents top players who are more than likely getting the bulk of their team's ice time. The 200 minute cutoff was an attempt to find pairings who would've played more than 10 games together, and exclude the pairings that the coach may have been experimenting with. Using this as my criteria, I found 81 defence pairings at Corsica Hockey, with representation from all 30 NHL teams. Every team had at least two defence pairings make the cut except for five teams who only had one: Edmonton, Detroit, Minnesota, Florida and New York.

First I looked into the metrics that measure events against: Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xGA) and Goals. And since I'm comparing players from different teams, I looked at how each defence pairing did relative to their own teammates (again, negative Rel numbers is a good thing in this context).

Here's how Sekera/Fayne fared using these metrics, along with their ranking among the pool of 81 pairings. A complete list of the 81 defence pairs can be found in Appendix A.

When it came to Corsi For%, Corsi Against/60, Fenwick Against/60, Sekera Fayne did well in relation to their own teammates, and finished around the middle of the pack among the other 80 similarly deployed defence pairings. And when it came to expected goals against/60, which covers the location and quality of shots against when they were on the ice, Sekera and Fayne ranked 22nd overall. They were actually ahead of some very good, top line pairings and just behind Dallas' Demers/Oduya pair. When it came to actual goals against, Sekera and Fayne ranked lower, but we have to consider the fact that their PDO was 98.54, the 15th worst among the cohort.

So when it comes to limiting events against (i.e., shot attempts, scoring chances), Fayne and Sekera aren't that bad at all and actually came ahead of some very good pairings. What I found somewhat surprising was that when it came to events for, the duo are actually better than I think most would expect. They're usually being referred to as a shut down pair, but among the 81 top minute tandems, their offensive contributions rank again around the middle of the pack.

In my mind, their offensive contributions together might be getting over looked as they do compare well with similar defence pairings (complete list of defence pairings events-for can be found in Appendix B). Sekera and Fayne aren't going to be scoring at Erik Karlsson levels, but considering that they play against the top opposition, their productivity isn't that bad as top line options.

Thoughts

It would be in the best interest of the Oilers to retain Mark Fayne this off-season and have him paired with Sekera at training camp. The duo complement each other well and have been productive as a top line pair. The cost is substantial as both players carry heavy contracts. But it would difficult, in my mind, to replicate the success these two have had together, and it's doubtful that the return for Fayne in particular would be justifiable.

I'd be comfortable starting the 2016/17 season with Fayne, Sekera and Klefbom in the top four, with at least one right shot defenceman added to round that unit out. The bottom pairing could consist of Davidson and Nurse, but it'll be important to add someone with experience if/when one of the two young prospects struggle. The key will be for the Oilers to find a balance of skill, size and experience in their defence core to have any shot at making the playoffs in 2017.

Data source: Corsica Hockey

Appendix A: Complete List of Comparable Defence Pairings - Events Against

Appendix B: Complete List of Comparable Defence Pairings - Events For