In the end I think 40 fewer goals might be optimistic but not completely outside the realm of possibility. If the team adds some depth at centre (yes, that again) things will get even better. Looking at the numbers and the roster that the Oilers have right now I'd say the team will probably be about 30 goals better in their end of the rink. Strong seasons from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov will improve things in the other end of the rink too. The problem is, they're so far behind they have a ton of improving to do just to be bad.
30 goals better this season means five more wins, or 10 more points. That's enough for a tie for 13th, but assuming the distribution of the teams surrendering those 10 points aligns with conference standings, it should be enough for 12th. But is Ryan right? Is he too pessimistic? For that we turn to the wisdom of crowds.