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NHL Power Rankings: Kings Rising, Detroit Back To Old Form?

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The Ducks, Flames Kings and Wings are all up this week.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

First off - there have been some bizarre proclamations made about teams already, both from statheads and traditionalists alike. Fellas, relax, we're just 10 games into the season.

About these rankings:

Two seasons ago, I set out to eliminate the non-sense behind power rankings by building a power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predictive ability. The rankings were built on points earned, special teams, even strength play and goaltending, so they were constantly in flux.

I'm still playing around with the model, but here is my best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and I don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and I don't plan to.

Rank Team Share Last Week Delta
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 3.0 2 1
2 Anaheim Ducks 4.2 7 5
3 Minnesota Wild 4.3 1 -2
4 St. Louis Blues 5.2 4 0
5 Chicago Blackhawks 5.8 5 0
6 Washington Capitals 6.3 6 0
7 Vancouver Canucks 6.7 3 -4
8 Nashville Predators 7.2 8 0
9 Tampa Bay Lightning 7.3 12 3
10 Boston Bruins 7.5 13 3
11 New York Islanders 7.6 11 0
12 Winnipeg Jets 8.4 9 -3
13 Detroit Red Wings 9.5 20 7
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.9 10 -4
15 Calgary Flames 10.9 23 8
16 San Jose Sharks 10.9 17 1
17 Los Angeles Kings 11.2 22 5
18 Montreal Canadiens 11.6 15 -3
19 New York Rangers 11.8 14 -5
20 Florida Panthers 11.8 18 -2
21 Ottawa Senators 12.8 24 3
22 Edmonton Oilers 13.0 26 4
23 Philadelphia Flyers 13.3 25 2
24 Dallas Stars 14.2 19 -5
25 New Jersey Devils 14.3 16 -9
26 Carolina Hurricanes 15.7 29 3
27 Arizona Coyotes 15.8 21 -6
28 Columbus Blue Jackets 17.5 27 -1
29 Colorado Avalanche 18.8 30 1
30 Buffalo Sabres 19.4 28 -2

Western Conference Rankings

Rank Team Share
2 Anaheim Ducks 4.2
3 Minnesota Wild 4.3
4 St. Louis Blues 5.2
5 Chicago Blackhawks 5.8
7 Vancouver Canucks 6.7
8 Nashville Predators 7.2
12 Winnipeg Jets 8.4
15 Calgary Flames 10.9
16 San Jose Sharks 10.9
17 Los Angeles Kings 11.2
22 Edmonton Oilers 13.0
24 Dallas Stars 14.2
27 Arizona Coyotes 15.8
29 Colorado Avalanche 18.8
  • Vancouver finally played some decent competition and went 2-2 against the Predators, Ducks, Kings and Sharks.
  • Dallas desperately needs to fix the defense. I've called them out a few times - specifically for not signing guys like Tom Gilbert, but at this point, Trevor Daley is getting crushed against tough competition and Alex Goligoski is Alex Goligoski. Brendan Dillon and Jamie Benn are fine against seconds, but against easier competition Nemeth was bad, Oleksiak can't keep up and Gonchar has been awful since his return. The Stars need a top pairing and fast.
  • Winnipeg has been incredibly healthy so far, using just 21 skaters. 15 skaters have played in all 15 games and Zach Bogosian has played in 14.
  • Calgary is punching far, far above their weight right now. The Flames are 26th in Fenwick Close and have just one regular player with a positive Adj. Corsi: Paul Byron.

Eastern Conference Rankings

Rank Team Share
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 3.0
6 Washington Capitals 6.3
9 Tampa Bay Lightning 7.3
10 Boston Bruins 7.5
11 New York Islanders 7.6
13 Detroit Red Wings 9.5
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.9
18 Montreal Canadiens 11.6
19 New York Rangers 11.8
20 Florida Panthers 11.8
21 Ottawa Senators 12.8
23 Philadelphia Flyers 13.3
25 New Jersey Devils 14.3
26 Carolina Hurricanes 15.7
28 Columbus Blue Jackets 17.5
30 Buffalo Sabres 19.4
  • The Sabres gave up 52 shots to the Oilers.
  • Montreal made an interesting move in waiving Rene Bourque because there's a significant fall off in possession numbers for his potential replacements.
  • Pittsburgh has used 19 skaters and 17 skaters have played all 13 games. Olli Maata is the only regular to miss a game.
  • Detroit ranks 18th on the power play, 16th on the penalty kill, 14th at even strength and 16th in goaltending.  Yet, there they sit, 9th in points percentage.

Playoff Matchups:

Western Conference
Central Pacific
3 Minnesota Wild
2 Anaheim Ducks
8 Nashville Predators
12 Winnipeg Jets






4 St. Louis Blues
7 Vancouver Canucks
5 Chicago Blackhawks
15 Calgary Flames

Eastern Conference
Metropolitan Atlantic
1 Pittsburgh Penguins
9 Tampa Bay Lightning
18 Montreal Canadiens
14 Toronto Maple Leafs






6 Washington Capitals
10 Boston Bruins
11 New York Islanders
13 Detroit Red Wings