Brad Hunt's Impact On The Oilers

When we introduced our Score Prediction Contest, our regular commenter Fraternite thought he'd skinned the cat:

Premise 1: The internet tells me that the G/G average last year was 2.74 for the league and 2.43 for the Oilers. I didn’t check, but this has got to be normally distributed.

Premise 2: I anticipate big things for the Oilers this year, so I’m going to assume they’ll be average.

Conclusion: I will be predicting 3-3 for every game this year.

If any of you shmucks steal my strategy I’m going to be pissed. >:|

The league is averaging 2.75 goals per game, compared to 2.74 last year, and the Oilers are averaging 2.7 goals per game. Fraternite's strategy has paid off for predicting the Oilers score: in 3 of their 10 games thus far, the Oilers have scored 3 goals. But Fraternite didn't account for top-pairing defensemen Justin Schultz and Brad Hunt.

The Oilers have given up 3.6 goals per game, and while they've only given up 2 goals in 3 of their 10 games, in their five losses to the Flames, Canucks, Kings, Coyotes and Predators, they've surrendered 27 goals!

In Brad Hunt's five games this year (he's averaged 20:24 in those five games, by the way) the Oilers are 1-4, and have scored 11 goals, while surrendering 20, and that includes a 29-save Ben Scrivens shutout. With Hunt in the press box, the Oilers are 3-2 and have scored 16 goals, surrendering 16.

New strategy, Fraternite: If Brad Hunt is in the lineup, predict Oilers 2 - Opponent 5.