Copper & Blue Power Rankings - Pre-Training Camp Edition

Last season, I set out to eliminate the non-sense behind power rankings by building a power rankings model based on underlying statistics and their predictive ability. The rankings were built on points earned, special teams, even strength play and goaltending, so they were constantly in flux.

I'm still playing around with the model, and I've added opponent's remaining this season. Here is my best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season. One item of note - 38% of the game is luck, and I don't attempt to predict or model that 38%, and I don't plan to.

With a number of very good free agents still available and a number of teams that must make moves to gain cap space, these rankings may change prior to the beginning of the season, so I'll put another set out sometime in September.

NHL Rank	Team	Special Teams	Even Strength	Goal	Share	Notes
5	Detroit	8	4	19	4.11	Detroit moves to the Junior Circuit and 14 teams rejoice
6	Pittsburgh	2	11	10	4.79	Terrible goalie, bad depth, slow defense, but they still have Crosby & Malkin and Olympian Chris Kunitz.
7	Ottawa	11	8	5	5.47	Ottawa swaps Bobby Ryan in for Daniel Alfredsson and might get better. Will the goaltending hold up?
8	NY Rangers	17	7	1	6.24	It's sort of odd to pay 2 guys $14+ million and neither one are the best forward on your team.
9	Boston	15	6	21	6.45	Yeah, I can figure out how they score 21st in goaltending either
11	Montreal	4	15	11	6.68	Their off-season haul of Daniel Briere and Douglas Murray was spectacular in 2006.
12	Washington	10	12	18	7.3	If Washington can figure out a way to add Tom Gilbert or Ron Hainsey, they can move into the top 10
13	Philadelphia	6	16	30	8.42	Only Philadelphia would replace Ilya Bryzgalov with Steve Mason
14	NY Islanders	18	10	29	8.91	It's too bad Garth Snow can't coax Tim Thomas down from his mountain shack, this could be a mid-level playoff team in the east with a decent goalie.
15	New Jersey	16	14	24	9.62	The 24th ranking in goaltending assumes Martin Brodeur remains the primary goaltender.
19	Florida	22	17	28	12.19	Early prediction: Dale Tallon sells off his T(h)omases at the trade deadline.
22	Carolina	30	18	7	13.25	As long as they aren't stuck with an AHL goaltender for an extended period, they should be better than last season.
23	Columbus	26	19	20	13.37	I think they're going to be a good team, but the numbers don't bear that out. Maybe spaghettification weighs too heavily in my model
28	Tampa Bay	21	26	26	15.02	This is a very bizarre team, and they still need a tough minutes guy to replace Ohlund.
29	Toronto	24	30	17	16.63	Their off-season looks like Andy Warhol's bodily function stage
30	Buffalo	28	29	15	17.06	The only thing they have is decent goaltending and rumor is that they're trying to trade Ryan Miller Darcy Regier must really like Sam Reinhart.
NHL Rank	Team	Special Teams	Even Strength	Goal	Share	Notes
1	Los Angeles	3	1	12	1.61	Still the best in the NHL.
2	St Louis	5	2	16	2.6	Unheard of defensive depth and a group of fast young forwards make the Blues a stifling team to play against. As long as they don't have to rely on Brian Elliott, they're good.
3	San Jose	7	5	3	3.44	Brent Burns at forward, a young and steadying defensive corps, and dropping Clowe can only mean good things
4	Vancouver	1	9	8	3.77	Nothing is solid about Vancouver. The goalie is doing his Oprah media tour, their stars are aging, the other forwards are China dolls. But if all goes right - they're still a very good team.
10	Chicago	20	3	22	6.55	Stanley Cup to 10th in the league isn't a Cup hangover, it's The Khabibulin Effect
16	Anaheim	9	22	6	9.98	If Jonas Hiller plays incredible hockey early on, will Winnipeg come calling?
17	Edmonton	12	24	14	11.74	I'm not sure what to type - this is the highest the Oilers have ranked in anything except draft position since Nail Yakupov was 11.
18	Winnipeg	29	13	25	12.18	Winnipeg battling Edmonton for a playoff spot? It's like old times, and it could happen, but Ondrej Pavelec.
20	Phoenix	27	20	2	13.04	I wonder what Dave Tippett could do with real talent? And why haven't any other GMs tried that? Seems fishy.
21	Dallas	25	21	4	13.05	Dallas is done, but this would be a completely different team with Hainsey or Gilbert in place of Sergei Gonchar
24	Minnesota	19	25	9	13.38	Doesn't have enough talent, will rely on young players out of their depth and goaltending.
25	Nashville	14	28	13	13.53	Didn't have enough up front to win the battle last year and added Cullen and Stalberg to try and fix it.
26	Calgary	13	27	27	13.66	They got rid of Cory Sarich, yay! They added Shane O'Brien, aw.
27	Colorado	23	23	23	14.26	The forwards should be really good. The defense should be really bad.

• Someone in the Central Division will turn out, but as of now, I've got 5 of their 7 teams in the bottom 13 in the league.
• 28-30? Atlantic Division

Our early playoff predictions look like this:

Atlantic	Metropolitan		Pacific	Central
Detroit	Pittsburgh		Los Angeles	St Louis
Philadelphia	Montreal		Edmonton	Anaheim
Ottawa	NY Rangers		San Jose	Chicago
Boston	Washington		Vancouver	Winnipeg

Yup. The giant numbers machine has the Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs.