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At The Quarter Point: Shots, Goals, and Possession

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A game by game look at the numbers through the first quarter of the season.

Derek Leung

My look back at the first quarter of the Oilers season has so far covered each of the three positions. With this post I thought a look at the Oilers game by game possession numbers would be a good idea given the issues scoring goals at even strength and the disconnect between the Oilers scoring chances and Corsi so far this season.

The following graph shows the cumulative percentages for shots, Corsi, Fenwick, Fenwick close, scoring chances, and last of all goals. The scoring chance data I borrowed from this post from Tyler Dellow, the rest I tallied myself using Excel. All data is based on five-on-five play only.

Games_1-12

I'll let you make of that what you will but I see a couple of things.

  • Looking at it this way the Oilers struggles to score at even strength seem very much to be a product of bad luck more than anything else. Even if you only compare the goals to shots the difference is ridiculous, if you compare the goals to scoring chances it's absurd.
  • The Fenwick Close and the scoring chance numbers are both where you would like to see them. Scoring chances have only dipped below the 50% mark once following the fifth game of the season; at that point the total chances we 61 for and 62 against. And the percentage of Fenwick close stayed about 50% until just recently when the Oilers were badly outshot and outplayed in Columbus.
  • The thing to watch over the next quarter of the season will be how the Corsi and scoring chance line converge. If the Oilers are going to be a contender they need the scoring chance line to be their true talent level. If the Corsi line indicates their true talent they're going to be in trouble.