Edmonton Oilers' Zonestart Adjusted Scoring Chances

The underlying theme to the 2011-12 season was Tom Renney's skilled protection of the young Oilers' forwards (minus Magnus Paajarvi) and how the young forwards benefited from that protection. The raw scoring chances showed the three young forwards were the most productive, but how do those numbers break down when considering that protection?

Adjusting the scoring chance data for starting position puts the Oilers on an equal footing with each other (without consideration for qualcomp) and allows us to make direct comparisons of their results.

Thanks to the incomparable George Ays, we can do that.

George took the data from his own scoring chance project for the Rangers, plus the data from Neil Greenberg's data for the Capitals and modeled scoring chances as JLikens modeled Corsi. While the sample size is extremely small and subject to enormous variance, George should be able to zero in on a more targeted number as the Scoring Chance Project wraps up 2011-12. The results of of George's model shows "...an offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances."

The Forwards

• Magnus Paajarvi is a surprise leader here, but he didn't face the toughest competition. Then again, he was centered by the struggling Eric Belanger quite often.
• Ales Hemsky has been an elite ES player for half of a decade now, but it's unlikely he'll be recognized as such any time soon.
• Taylor Hall again shows well in the chances department, not so much for his chance prevention, but for his ability to create.
• Shawn Horcoff ended up six chances in the red, playing against toughs all season long.

The Defense

• There's that Gilbert guy again. And he did it against the best competition.
• Sutton did well against 3rd-level competition, but probably not $2.125 million well.
• Smid was above water with Gilbert, but fell off without him.
• Corey Potter's hot start couldn't keep him above water.

The Irregulars