Will The Oilers Win A Cup In My Lifetime?

Photo via Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons License.

This is honestly my greatest fear and probably a fear shared by those who grew up in the post Messier and Gretzky era. The male version of a biological clock if you will. It has started to tick. Sure we had our chance. That fling in the summer of '06 when that handsome Pronger guy took us for a ride but than hooked up with some California bimbo leaving us choking on handful upon handful of morning after pills. The worst part was that Dougie Weight was there...our first love. All happy with his new family. I'm not too proud to tell you I cried into my pint of ice cream. He would have made for an excellent partner. We were too young and broke when he was with us, the time just wasn't right. At least we're not like those old hags in Vancouver. So starved for anything that a small flirt sets their ovaries and fallopian tubes ablaze and them into a riot. Or those Toronto crones who've talked themselves into this Phaneuf you really want somebody's sloppy seconds? But every year, the jokes at their expense become a little less funny, as we look at ourselves in the mirror and see the worry lines start to creep across our foreheads wondering when it will be our turn to "pull the goalie". Woah...that's a metaphor inside of a metaphor...that's like Inception! (Gene Principe eat your heart out)

This metaphor has gone on too long. After the jump, some math...

So what is the likelihood of winning a cup before you die? In order to make a best guess at this, we need to make some assumptions. First off, lets assume the league stays with 30 teams, that no teams are contracted (even though some should be) and that no new teams arrive on the landscape (even though it's likely there will be). We can say that in any given year, an average team should have a 1 in 30 chance of winning the Cup. So if the Oilers perform over the remainder of my lifetime as an average team, we would have a 1 in 30 chance from year to year. I am currently 29 years old and the average life expectancy of an Albertan male is 78. So I've got 49 years of 1 in 30 chances left. The probability of at least one Cup assuming an average team for 49 years is calculated by subtracting from 1 the probability of not winning the cup for 49 years.

[ (29/30) ^49 ] - 1 = .81 or 81%

Scratch that, this year is down the tubes, and into the tampon already (Guess I wasn't quite ready to let the metaphor go) I will be 30 by the start of next season, so really I only have 48 years of 1 in 30 chances left.

[ (29/30) ^48 ] - 1 = .804 or 80.5%

Rejoice young Oiler fans, there's an 80% chance the Oilers will win a cup in the next 49 years. Whats that you say? The Oilers are run by a bunch of twits that couldn't find a cup in a coffee mug factory? I see your point...let's assume the Oilers are a worse than average team then and that they are half as likely as an average team to win a cup.

[ (29.5/30) ^48 ] - 1 = .554 or 55.4%

So I'm only slightly better than a coin flip to see my beloved Oilers win a Cup before I die? ...I'm scared...somebody hold me...

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