One of the great things about the work done by Dennis King at MC79hockey is the sheer amount of scoring chance information available to Oilers' fans. I've torn it apart, put it back together and posted the raw numbers and combinations in nearly every way imaginable. After the jump is the set of combined numbers from the last two seasons.
TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; CH% = scoring chance percentage; CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;
*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table. Initial sort is CD/15.
| # | Player | TCF | TCA | CH% | CF/15 | CA/15 | CD/15 |
| 32 | Ryan Stone | 73 | 61 | 0.545 | 5.010 | 4.186 | 0.823 |
| 4 | Taylor Hall | 349 | 321 | 0.521 | 5.344 | 4.916 | 0.429 |
| 27 | Dustin Penner | 608 | 576 | 0.514 | 4.936 | 4.677 | 0.260 |
| 12 | Robert Nilsson | 195 | 189 | 0.508 | 4.670 | 4.527 | 0.144 |
| 14 | Jordan Eberle | 309 | 303 | 0.505 | 4.764 | 4.672 | 0.093 |
| 56 | Teemu Hartikainen | 40 | 39 | 0.506 | 3.470 | 3.383 | 0.087 |
| 57 | Colin McDonald | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | 3.362 | 3.362 | 0.000 |
| 83 | Ales Hemsky | 308 | 310 | 0.498 | 4.824 | 4.855 | -0.031 |
| 91 | Mike Comrie | 116 | 124 | 0.483 | 4.508 | 4.819 | -0.311 |
| 12 | Alexandre Giroux | 20 | 22 | 0.476 | 3.295 | 3.625 | -0.330 |
| 89 | Sam Gagner | 538 | 590 | 0.477 | 4.557 | 4.997 | -0.440 |
| 54 | Chris VandeVelde | 44 | 49 | 0.473 | 3.965 | 4.416 | -0.451 |
| 16 | Ryan Potulny | 188 | 209 | 0.474 | 4.474 | 4.973 | -0.500 |
| 13 | Andrew Cogliano | 538 | 622 | 0.464 | 4.147 | 4.794 | -0.647 |
| 10 | Shawn Horcoff | 459 | 536 | 0.461 | 4.319 | 5.044 | -0.725 |
| 23 | Linus Omark | 153 | 185 | 0.453 | 3.580 | 4.329 | -0.749 |
| Fwd Average | 0.455 | 3.982 | 4.769 | -0.788 | |||
| 91 | Magnus Paajarvi | 265 | 322 | 0.451 | 3.750 | 4.557 | -0.807 |
| 67 | Gilbert Brule | 335 | 409 | 0.450 | 4.059 | 4.956 | -0.897 |
| 85 | Liam Reddox | 130 | 174 | 0.428 | 3.268 | 4.374 | -1.106 |
| 46 | Zack Stortini | 160 | 219 | 0.422 | 3.054 | 4.181 | -1.126 |
| 22 | Jean-Francois Jacques | 182 | 249 | 0.422 | 3.309 | 4.528 | -1.218 |
| 19 | Patrick O`Sullivan | 224 | 291 | 0.435 | 4.113 | 5.344 | -1.230 |
| 16 | Colin Fraser | 90 | 135 | 0.400 | 2.705 | 4.057 | -1.352 |
| 28 | Ryan Jones | 164 | 274 | 0.374 | 2.745 | 4.586 | -1.841 |
| 78 | Marc-Antoine Pouliot | 68 | 106 | 0.391 | 3.456 | 5.388 | -1.932 |
| 42 | Ryan O`Marra | 33 | 68 | 0.327 | 2.120 | 4.369 | -2.249 |
| 18 | Ethan Moreau | 175 | 305 | 0.365 | 3.347 | 5.834 | -2.486 |
| 34 | Fernando Pisani | 74 | 141 | 0.344 | 2.902 | 5.529 | -2.627 |
| 33 | Steve MacIntyre | 14 | 41 | 0.255 | 1.676 | 4.908 | -3.232 |
| 36 | Charles Linglet | 1 | 5 | 0.167 | 1.389 | 6.944 | -5.556 |
| 39 | Chris Minard | 6 | 22 | 0.214 | 2.086 | 7.648 | -5.562 |
Based on the work I've done with the Florida Panthers scoring chances and the work I've seen elsewhere, and all things being equal (zonestart, qualcomp, etc.) I believe that a chance percentage of 45% is replacement-level. I believe it could be a bit higher (somewhere just north of 46%), but another season of data will help to reach stronger conclusions and 45% is a safe bet thus far. If 45% is indeed replacement level, it's a bit of a concern that the Oilers' forwards have averaged 45% over the last two seasons. It's worth pointing out, however, that all things haven't been equal for the Oilers over the last two seasons. First, neither Pat Quinn nor Tom Renney saw fit to match lines at any point during their tenure. Second, injuries have ravaged the Oilers over the last two seasons and forced players into roles they were not ready for or capable of handling.
Most of the players at the top of the list and most of the players at the bottom of the list are long gone, leaving a significant portion of the middle of the list, mostly a list of players who have not had much success by the numbers, underlying stats or traditional stats.
TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; CH% = scoring chance percentage; CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;
*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table. Initial sort is CD/15.
| # | Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% | CF/15 | CA/15 | CD/15 |
| 58 | Jeff Petry | 162 | 143 | 0.531 | 4.270 | 3.769 | 0.501 |
| 71 | Lubomir Visnovsky | 296 | 288 | 0.507 | 4.847 | 4.716 | 0.131 |
| 77 | Tom Gilbert | 716 | 763 | 0.484 | 4.250 | 4.529 | -0.279 |
| 44 | Sheldon Souray | 173 | 187 | 0.481 | 4.819 | 5.209 | -0.390 |
| 6 | Ryan Whitney | 245 | 271 | 0.475 | 4.351 | 4.812 | -0.462 |
| 5 | Ladislav Smid | 570 | 635 | 0.473 | 4.191 | 4.669 | -0.478 |
| Def Average | 0.463 | 4.205 | 4.867 | -0.662 | |||
| 37 | Denis Grebeshkov | 205 | 244 | 0.457 | 4.326 | 5.149 | -0.823 |
| 2 | Jim Vandermeer | 246 | 299 | 0.451 | 3.955 | 4.807 | -0.852 |
| 26 | Kurtis Foster | 239 | 301 | 0.443 | 3.667 | 4.619 | -0.951 |
| 24 | Steve Staios | 161 | 203 | 0.442 | 4.478 | 5.646 | -1.168 |
| 43 | Jason Strudwick | 347 | 472 | 0.424 | 3.660 | 4.979 | -1.319 |
| 49 | Theo Peckham | 318 | 440 | 0.420 | 3.616 | 5.004 | -1.387 |
| 45 | Shawn Belle | 13 | 21 | 0.382 | 2.658 | 4.294 | -1.636 |
| 48 | Alex Plante | 15 | 26 | 0.366 | 2.766 | 4.794 | -2.028 |
| 41 | Taylor Chorney | 151 | 244 | 0.382 | 3.348 | 5.411 | -2.062 |
| 2 | Aaron Johnson | 53 | 82 | 0.393 | 3.787 | 5.859 | -2.072 |
| 37 | Richard Petiot | 6 | 10 | 0.375 | 3.763 | 6.271 | -2.508 |
| 8 | Dean Arsene | 15 | 34 | 0.306 | 2.697 | 6.113 | -3.416 |
| 58 | Johan Motin | 1 | 9 | 0.100 | 1.148 | 10.332 | -9.184 |
The defense is only slightly better, but at least they've hung on to four of the six above average defenseman, unlike the forwards who were turned out. Even more concerning with the defense is the two men slotted for regular duty next season, Kurtis Foster and Theo Peckham, have performed below replacement levels over parts of last two seasons.