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Full disclosure: I am not a goalie guy. Bruce is a goalie guy. I hereby advise anyone who wants to know more about Olivier Roy’s proclivities as a goaltender to go read Bruce's January 2011 review. It’s a good’un.
As Bruce mentioned in that article, Roy played himself in-to and then out-of the starting goaltender job for Team Canada at the World Junior Hockey Championships. While the World Juniors is affectionately known (heh) as the Tournament of Small Sample Sizes around these parts, it has to be acknowledged that, in Canada at least, it serves as a stage on which legends are born. Falling off said stage qualifies as a ‘not-good’ thing.
To recycle Bruce’s Glass-Half-Full metaphor… Half-Full: that the Oilers finally had a goaltending prospect who grasped that top-job… Half-Empty: that the one Oiler prospect who does do that then proceeds to fritter the opportunity away? Management material?
In March 2011 the Oilers signed Roy to a 3-year entry level deal. Given he has completed his junior league apprenticeship, it is now time for him to try his game at the AHL level. Roy’s career, regular season, QMJHL stats (per HockeyDB) read as follows:
RS Goalie Stats 2007-08 QMJHL 47 2428 116 4 2.87 27 11 3 1003 0.896 2008-09 QMJHL 54 2935 139 3 2.84 35 12 3 1326 0.905 2009-10 QMJHL 54 3155 138 5 2.62 32 21 0 1367 0.908 2010-11 QMJHL 45 2604 121 2 2.79 29 13 2 1235 0.911
He’s done pretty well. The marker that matters is Save% and his has increased every year (.911 isn’t elite but it is competent). He is a four-year starter and is a winner. All good stuff. I also looked through the various years and can tell you that he hasn’t ever played on a dominant team and that he hasn’t ever played on a truly horrible team.
Which puts me right back into my drink… Half-Full: that he hasn’t ever been artificially boosted or destroyed… or Half-Empty: he hasn’t ever lifted his team to elite status?
Was his rookie year the one year he overachieved? Think about that for a second. It’s somewhat true.
One of the things I really liked from Bruce’s review was the comparison to his back-up.
From January's Rankings (again, HockeyDB):
Name GP Min GA GAA W L T SO Saves SvPct 16 827 30 2.18 10 2 1 3 378 0.926 24 1405 68 2.90 15 9 0 1 635 0.903
In January 2011, Roy wasn’t even the best goalie on his team. Let us now look at the rest of the season (HockeyDB and math):
|
Name |
GP |
Min |
GA |
GAA |
W |
L |
T |
SO |
Saves |
SvPct |
|
|
5 |
255 |
18 |
4.25 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
134 |
0.882 |
||
|
21 |
1199 |
53 |
2.65 |
14 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
600 |
0.919 |
OH YEAH! AWESOME!! WOOT!!! Let’s rip ‘em up in the play-offs! Right?!? Oh... right... Half-Full: great last 21 games... Half-Empty: Roy would be shelled in his first two play-off games and replaced by Steeves for the last two.
Best bet? Drink it all down and wait for the hangover. If that hangover comes with a wake-up that didn’t need the goggles and a little (now)sober scouting indicates your instincts are good, then good. If not.... there is always another draft. Which is about where Roy finds himself on our list right now – we’re at that point in the evening where we are out of bills and we’re hoping the change adds up. Spotted at #22 overall Olivier Roy now has 3 years to show his history of steady improvement in Juniors isn’t a fluke. Good luck to him.
I had him spotted at #18 because... Half-Full: of said history, because he is the best goalie prospect we have (imo) and because his status as the #4 goalie on the team depth chart right now almost guarantees him a chance to show his stuff on NHL ice (something a chunk of the other guys listed late won’t get)... Half-Empty: all that and the best he rates is meh?
Maybe he should find out what Thomas and Roloson are drinking; it could be a while.