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NHL Entry Draft 2011 - YKOil & Bob McKenzie

Part 2 of 2 (click for Part 1 of 2).

So how does the aggregated list match up against the best there is this time of year?

Talking Bob McKenzie of course.

His list is found at TSN and it comprises of information gleaned from, primarily I believe, team scouts (he references 10 scouts but I haven't seen anything on whether or not those scouts are active team scouts, independent scouts or a mix). Since the aggregated list is comprised of information gleaned from, primarily, non-team scouts I figured this would be an interesting exercise.

Note that the aggregated list only takes into account the top-15 listings, so the number of players aggregated from those lists - 'in total' - in any given draft year can vary. For 2011 the number is 23.

So I will only look at McKenzie's top-23.

Here we go!

Comparing by Ranking

Number of slots it would take to get a player to have a matching rank on both lists; i.e. Murphy is ranked 1 slot later on McKenzie's list as opposed to where he ranks on the aggregated list. 

Comparing by Grouping

I have grouped the players by their aggregated point scores as, in that bracket, they are almost interchangeable. I then replicated the process used above (per Rank).

The Comparison

Aggregated Listing  Bob McKenzie's Boys  Ranking  Grouping
Nugent-Hopkins  Nugent-Hopkins  0 0
-  -  -  -
Larsson  Larsson  0 0
Landeskog  Huberdeau  1 0
Huberdeau  Landeskog  1 0
-  -  -  -
Hamilton  Couturier  1 0
Couturier  Hamilton  1 0
Murphy  Strome  1 0
Strome  Murphy  1 0
-  -  -  -
Zibanejad  Zibanejad  0 0
-  -  -  -
Bartschi  Brodin  5 0
Beaulieu  Beaulieu  0 0
Grimaldi  Scheifele  7 1
Siemens  Siemens  0 0
Klefbom  Armia  2 1
Brodin  Biggs  z  z
-  -  -  -
Armia  Bartschi  6 1
Miller  Oleksiak  z  z
Phillips  Miller  1 0
Scheifele  McNeill  z  z
Khoklachev  Morrow  z  z
Saad  Klefbom  7 1
Jaskin  Saad  1 0
Musil  Grimaldi  11 1


The Mutually Exclusives

Per McKenzie:

15 .. Biggs
17 .. Oleksiak
19 .. McNeill
20 .. Morrow

Per Aggregated Wisdom:

18 .. Phillips
20 .. Khoklachev
22 .. Jaskin
23 .. Musil

McKenzie's four shows some love for size (Hey! Chara's big!) and that view probably has some merit.  The wild card is Khoklachev who garnered points from two of the lists, that means he showed up top-15 twice (and one of those was Redline) so it will be interesting to see if the Russian factor drops him out of the top-23.

To be clear, if Khoklachev does drop out of the top-23 it indicates - to me at least - that the Russian factor may create a sizable negative.

To a smart GM that should mean a positive opportunity... but that's just my opinion.

The Rank

(except at the very high-end, differences of 4 spots or less are irrelevant in my view)

Notable changes by Rank:

+ 5 .. Brodin
+ 7 .. Scheifele
-  6 .. Bartschi
-  7 .. Klefbom
-11 .. Grimaldi

I think we see where the 'Size' factor impacts Grimaldi.  That is a massive swing in ranking in my opinion.  Brodin may be seeing some SEL love while Scheifele is a 6'2" center.  Bartschi may be taking a small hit because he is only 5'11" while Klefbom - based on the scouting report McCagg gives - has serious skating issues (yet Biggs gets away with it... hrmmmm).

Notable drops by Group:

None noted.  Though Grimaldi's 11 spot ranking drop almost qualifies.  No scout love for the stubbies it seems.

Makes me think this is a perfect pick up at the 19th if the first pick-up is a d-man...

Some Thoughts

As with last year it is pretty damn close. Props again to the independent scouts.  As well, the 'Rule of Thumb' I use explains away ALL of this year's discrepancies.  Yay me!

The aggregation process shows real promise imo and any small organization short on scouting resources should consider using it on a 20 name basis (should result in some 30+ names) in order to get a better bead on the first round.  More than 20 names and it gets too random imo (but that's just me).

At the very least it might make an opportunistic trade to pick up a Grimaldi or Khoklachev worth considering.  Khoklachev shows up at #44 on McKenzie's list.  Oh.  Right.  Russian AND short.

Does no one remember Tarasenko's fall from last year?

All things being equal... remember that McKenzie is talking to 'team' scouts. His list should always be better (I know I think it is) but, as with anything, don't be surprised if sometimes the aggregated list gets it right.

After all, teams are, generally, run by strong independent minded thinkers aren't they?  Right?  Right???


Have a great evening everyone and enjoy the draft.