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Tom Gilbert Scoring Chances 2010-2011

By Derek Zona Updated
If the puck is moving the right way, Tom Gilbert is probably on the ice.
If the puck is moving the right way, Tom Gilbert is probably on the ice.

Up to this point, I've posted the raw chances numbers for each player without much editorializing or analysis outside of noting the consistent Ryan Jones Effect.  I've left the analysis to Bruce, Ryan and Scott.  The lack of editorial content will change with this article.

Chance % Team Rank: 7/23
Chance % Def. Rank: 2/8

Diff/60 Team Rank: 7/23
Diff/60% Def. Rank: 2/8

The six players in front of Tom Gilbert were Jeff Petry, Taylor Hall, Shawn Horcoff, Jordan Eberle, Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky.  No Edmonton Oiler played tougher minutes with worse teammates and performed as well as Tom Gilbert.

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg %
1-10 44 45 44 45 0.494 0.453
11-20 81 105 37 60 0.381 0.401
21-30 129 158 48 53 0.475 0.449
31-40 187 218 58 60 0.492 0.467
41-50 244 271 57 53 0.518 0.531
51-60 293 321 49 50 0.495 0.470
61-70 338 365 45 44 0.506 0.454
71-82 371 392 33 27 0.550 0.486

 

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

Gilbertseasonsegment_medium

Gilbert rock-solid throughout the season except for games 11-20 and the beginning of the 21-30 segment.  That dip coincided with Tom Renney pairing Gilbert with Jason Strudwick to face the toughs.  It was a terrible decision.

 

Scoring Chances WOWY


 With Gilbert
Without Gilbert
Gilbert Without
# CF CA %
CF CA %
CF CA %
4 136 109 0.555
213 212 0.501
235 283 0.454
10 91 71 0.562
108 115 0.484
280 321 0.466
13 101 119 0.459
189 210 0.474
270 273 0.497
14 122 99 0.552
187 204 0.478
249 293 0.459
16 36 52 0.409
54 83 0.394
335 340 0.496
22 22 25 0.468
51 68 0.429
349 367 0.487
23 52 48 0.520
101 137 0.424
319 344 0.481
27 96 102 0.485
152 146 0.510
275 290 0.487
28 61 96 0.389
102 168 0.378
310 296 0.512
67 37 51 0.420
71 103 0.408
334 341 0.495
83 82 91 0.474
111 107 0.509
289 301 0.490
85 40 33 0.548
71 100 0.415
331 359 0.480
89 104 112 0.481
167 205 0.449
267 280 0.488
91 88 99 0.471
177 223 0.443
283 293 0.491












2 25 11 0.694
221 288 0.434
346 381 0.476
5 117 110 0.515
215 267 0.446
254 282 0.474
6 42 54 0.438
126 139 0.475
329 338 0.493
43 15 33 0.313
125 127 0.496
356 359 0.498
49 152 171 0.471
126 189 0.400
219 221 0.498

 

14 of 19 players were better with Tom Gilbert than without and many significantly so.  The Taylor Hall - Shawn Horcoff - Jordan Eberle line is a glaring example of this.  Without Gilbert they were below 50%.  With him they were above 55%.  Theo Peckham was somewhat respectable with Gilbert, but without him, Peckham was below replacement-level.  Gilbert even helped Ladislav Smid rise above 50% in their time together, but without Gilbert, Laco drops to .446.

I've written about the selective perception of Oilers' fans when it comes to Tom Gilbert and since then the vitriol has increased.  There is a rather vocal portion of the Oilers' fanbase that deems Gilbert to be a terrible defender (because they don't understand defense), a wimpy player (presumably because they've never seen shot block totals) a salary cap anchor (because they don't understand value) and a detestable person (because he writes about his personal life for the Oilers' official site).  If you, the reader, believe any of the above about Gilbert, you are ignorant to the facts, purposefully obtuse or you are an imbecile.

The story here is clear.  The Edmonton Oilers with Tom Gilbert are a vastly superior team to the Edmonton Oilers without Tom Gilbert and Tom Gilbert is an outstanding player.