Number That May Interest Only Me, Linus Omark Edition: 957


Linus Omark had the worst PDO of any Edmonton forward in 2010-2011 at 957. He suffered at the hand of the second-worst on-ice save percentage of any Edmonton forward and was 11th of 15 forwards in on-ice shooting percentage. He was fighting percentages for the entire season.

So I find it curious when Edmonton fans jump on Omark's defensive game and immediately point to his plus/minus as evidence that he's not ready for the NHL. The underlying stats tell a much different story. His scoring chance against numbers rate him 9/23 among all Oilers and 7/15 among Edmonton's forward group. The shots numbers are even more striking. His Raw Corsi numbers were tops among all Oilers forwards and his relative Corsi was third.

In fact, if we run Omark's numbers assuming a PDO of 1000 (a shade lower than Ryan Jones' PDO number) with an on-ice shooting percentage of .08 and on on-ice save percentage of .920, his even strength GF/GA ratio goes from 20/35 to 22/22. WIth just average goaltending and shooting percentage, Omark's rookie season was even at even strength and his -16 would have been a -1.

If you're looking for a middle-round pick for your keeper pool, Omark's regression is worth paying attention to.

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