Edmonton Goaltending Scoring Chances Data, 2009-2011

Dennis King's scoring chance data has created a bit of a mystery. For an as yet undetermined reason, the Edmonton Oilers have been a significantly better team in front of goaltenders not named Nikolai Khabibulin over the last two seasons. The effect is obvious when looking at WOWY comparisons of the players in front of him and looking at the numbers of the Oilers regulars compared to those of the Capitals.

I've compiled the totals from the last two seasons below.

TCF = Total even strength chances for on, TCA = Total even strength chances against on, % = percentage of even strength scoring chances for while on the ice, CF/60 = even strength chances for on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, CA/60 = even strength chances against on per 60 minutes of even strength playing time, DIFF/60 = even strength scoring chance difference per 60 minutes of even strength playing time.

2009-2011 Minutes TCF TCA % CF/60 CA/60 DIFF/60
With Khabibulin 2893 729 962 0.431 15.117 19.949 -4.832
W/O Khabibulin 4111 1153 1317 0.467 16.827 19.221 -2.393

Over two seasons the Oilers have been 2.438 chances per 60 better without Khabibulin. Khabibulin's total minutes over those two seasons are equivalent to those of an average starter in a single season. Sample size warnings are still in effect and variance is the likeliest answer.

However, if there is a deeper answer, ceteris paribus, the Oilers would expect to be 25 goals worse per season in front of Khabibulin at even strength compared to the Jeff Deslauriers, Devan Dubnyk, Martin Gerber triumvirate. Note that this number is the expected goal differential based on scoring chance differential alone and has nothing to do with save percentage.

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