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# Nikolai Khabibulin Scoring Chances 2010-2011

What explanations can we explore to determine why the Oilers are giving up far more chances in front of Khabibulin compared to anyone else who plays in goal for them?

I asked that question of you, the reader, in mid-March.  Commenters arrived at a "rebounds" consensus, but I don't believe anyone has done any work on the question.  I don't know if goaltenders have a significant effect on scoring chance rates, but we needed a way to introduce the Nikolai Khabibulin review, so the season numbers are after the jump.

I've listed his rank among his teammates as if he were a skater:

Chance % Team Rank:  20/24

Diff/60 Team Rank: 21/24

Scoring Chances by Season Segment

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; SCF = segment even strength chances for; SCA = segment even strength chances against; Segment % = player scoring chance percentage during the season segment; Team Seg % = Oilers team scoring chance percentage during the season segment.

 Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Segment % Team Seg % 1-10 91 117 91 117 0.438 0.453 11-20 134 204 43 87 0.331 0.401 21-30 206 296 72 92 0.439 0.449 31-40 292 431 86 135 0.389 0.467 41-50 373 496 81 65 0.555 0.531 51-60 448 573 75 77 0.493 0.470 61-70 454 590 6 17 0.261 0.454 71-82 515 672 61 82 0.427 0.486

Scoring Chances Line Graph by Season Segment

*click to enlarge

He was 20th in chance percentage so the poor numbers on the graph are not a surprise.

Scoring Chances WOWY

 With Khabibulin Without Khabibulin Khabibulin Without # CF CA % CF CA % CF CA % 4 178 200 0.471 171 121 0.586 337 472 0.417 10 92 101 0.477 107 85 0.557 423 571 0.426 13 152 179 0.459 138 150 0.479 363 493 0.424 14 164 173 0.487 145 130 0.527 351 499 0.413 16 49 87 0.360 41 48 0.461 466 585 0.443 22 40 46 0.465 33 47 0.413 475 626 0.431 23 81 100 0.448 72 85 0.459 434 572 0.431 27 132 146 0.475 116 102 0.532 383 526 0.421 28 81 159 0.338 82 105 0.439 434 513 0.458 46 27 42 0.391 18 17 0.514 488 630 0.436 67 57 94 0.377 51 60 0.459 458 578 0.442 83 85 121 0.413 108 77 0.584 430 551 0.438 85 59 55 0.518 52 78 0.400 456 617 0.425 89 151 189 0.444 120 128 0.484 364 483 0.430 91 136 182 0.428 129 140 0.480 379 490 0.436 2 113 146 0.436 133 153 0.465 402 526 0.433 5 181 225 0.446 151 152 0.498 334 447 0.428 6 92 133 0.409 76 60 0.559 423 539 0.440 26 128 182 0.413 111 119 0.483 387 490 0.441 43 70 99 0.414 70 61 0.534 445 573 0.437 49 152 214 0.415 126 146 0.463 363 458 0.442 58 83 78 0.516 79 65 0.549 432 594 0.421 77 184 216 0.460 187 176 0.515 331 456 0.421

This is just bizarre.  There's something going on here, but what?  Taylor Hall without Khabibulin has a scoring chance percentage better than Alex Ovechkin.  With Khabibulin he's Jason ChimeraTom Gilbert posts numbers similar to those of Karl Alzner without Khabibulin.  With him, he's Tyler SloanRyan Whitney's numbers are better than those of John Carlson without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the CapitalsAles Hemsky is better than Ovechkin without Khabibulin.  With him, he's the worst player on the Caps.  Ladislav Smid and Kurtis Foster were nearly even players without Khabibulin.  Only three Oilers were better with Khabibulin:  J.F. Jacques and Liam Reddox, and of course Ryan Jones, though Jones and Khabibulin were so bad together it was impossible for them to be worse apart from each other.