The Case For Sean Couturier At #1

Sean Couturier has been sliding down nearly everyone's draft boards since September of 2010. TSN's pre-season rankings had Couturier in a dead heat for first with Adam Larsson but by mid-season, Couturier slipped to 4th.  ISS has Couturier ranked 4th, while the craziness continues for Craig Button - he's got Couturier ranked 6th.  The Scouting Report went against the trend - moving Couturier up to 2nd in their mid-season rankings, up one spot from 3rd in their pre-season rankings.

Couturier put up an outstanding season for the Drummondville Voltigeurs in the QMJHL this season, winning the league's Michel-Brière Trophy for Most Valuable Player.  His Voltigeurs swept through the first round of the Q playoffs with Couturier leading the way.  He was the only first-year draft-eligible player to make the Canadian World Junior Roster.  All of his arrows are pointing up, so why is he dropping?  It's the always-nebulous intangibles that are doing him in.  Hustle, hitting, determination, grit -- these words are now popping up in discussions and articles about Couturier and nearly every time, the article is about Couturier lacking these things.

After the jump, I'll look at the statistics behind Couturier's outstanding season and demonstrate that the 6'4" 195 lb center might have a lock on the #1 overall spot.

The QMJHL conveniently tracks faceoffs taken and faceoffs won on each game sheet and compiles the numbers in their "skaters" category.  Couturier and center Marc-Olivier Vachon combined to take 2747 of Drummondville's 4600+ faceoffs.  Couturier was second in the league in faceoffs per game.

Name	Team	GP	WFO	FO	F%	FO/G
Philip-Michaël Devos	Gatineau Olympiques	68	964	1763	0.547	25.926
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	58	778	1430	0.544	24.655
Alex Saulnier	Moncton Wildcats	65	782	1481	0.528	22.785
Marc-Olivier Vachon	Drummondville Voltigeurs	59	757	1317	0.575	22.322
Jérémy Gouchie	Montréal Juniors	66	824	1445	0.570	21.894
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	Gatineau Olympiques	67	800	1431	0.559	21.358
Michael Chaput	Lewiston MAINEiacs	62	746	1324	0.563	21.355
Joël Champagne	Québec Remparts	68	879	1435	0.613	21.103
Philippe Maillet	Victoriaville Tigres	67	652	1382	0.472	20.627
Alexandre Touchette	Val-d'Or Foreurs	37	392	753	0.521	20.351

 

Couturier's .544 faceoff percentage ranked 28th in the league.  Incidentally, Joël Champagne, a former Toronto Maple Leafs draft pick, led the league in faceoff percentage at .613.  The Maple Leafs have relinquished their rights to Champagne, a 6'4" center, and the Oilers may want to explore signing him to a free agent contract.  Couturier excelled in the faceoff circle as an 18-year-old, something the 20-somethings roving center ice at Rexall have yet to do and may never do.

Couturier's ability to generate his own offense was one of the reasons he was added Team Canada for the World Junior Championships.  That ability is reflected in his shots totals.

Name	Team	Pos	GP	S	S/G
Louis Leblanc	Montréal Juniors	C	51	240	4.706
Brandon Hynes	Victoriaville Tigres	RW	66	303	4.591
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	LW	61	263	4.311
Marek Hrivik	Moncton Wildcats	LW	59	250	4.237
Jonathan Audy-Marchessault	Québec Remparts	C	68	265	3.897
David Gilbert	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	C	52	202	3.885
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	C	58	223	3.845
Guillaume Goulet	Victoriaville Tigres	RW	59	225	3.814
Michaël Bournival	Shawinigan Cataractes	C	56	212	3.786
Michael Kirkpatrick	Saint John Sea Dogs	C	63	238	3.778

 

Even though Montreal Canadiens draft pick Louis Leblanc stood out, it was Couturier who led all first-time draft-eligible players with 3.845 shots per game.  Saint John Sea Dog Zack Phillips averaged 3.433 and teammate Jonathan Huberdeau, a late riser in the rankings and yet another possible top five pick averaged 3.015 shots per game.

The QMJHL is widely believed to be the inferior CHL league, but there is an area in which the league outpaces the OHL and WHL, even the NHL, and that's in tracking scoring chances.  Each QMJHL game sheet contains a column titled "DS".  DS is the scorer's notation for Dangerous Shots, i.e. scoring chances.  Couturier once again excelled in this category.

Name	Team	Pos	GP	DS	DS/G
Michael Kirkpatrick	Saint John Sea Dogs	C	63	184	2.921
Étienne Brodeur	Lewiston MAINEiacs	LW	68	194	2.853
Marek Hrivik	Moncton Wildcats	LW	59	158	2.678
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	LW	61	161	2.639
Trevor Parkes	Montréal Juniors	RW	60	146	2.433
Jonathan Huberdeau	Saint John Sea Dogs	C	67	162	2.418
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	C	58	138	2.379
Samuel Morneau	PEI Rocket	LW	67	155	2.313
Louis Leblanc	Montréal Juniors	C	51	112	2.196
Jonathan Hazen	Val-d'Or Foreurs	RW	62	136	2.194

 

The Sea Dogs machine catches up with Couturier as Huberdeau slightly outpaces him in the scoring chances metric

What about scoring chances as a percentage of the team total?  Couturier is superior.

Name	Team	Pos	DS	DS/G	Team DS	% of Team
Marek Hrivik	Moncton Wildcats	LW	158	2.678	989	0.160
Jonathan Hazen	Val-d'Or Foreurs	RW	136	2.194	889	0.153
Étienne Brodeur	Lewiston MAINEiacs	LW	194	2.853	1334	0.145
Carl Gélinas	Halifax Mooseheads	LW	140	2.059	971	0.144
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	LW	161	2.639	1233	0.131
Jonathan Marchessault	Québec Remparts	C	120	1.765	923	0.130
Félix Lefrançois	Rimouski Océanic	C	117	1.800	910	0.129
Devon MacAusland	Moncton Wildcats	C	123	1.809	989	0.124
Michael Kirkpatrick	Saint John Sea Dogs	C	184	2.921	1490	0.123
Brandon Hynes	Victoriaville Tigres	RW	128	1.939	1037	0.123
Guillaume Asselin	Chicoutimi Saguenéens	RW	110	1.667	898	0.122
Trevor Parkes	Montréal Juniors	RW	146	2.433	1217	0.120
Sébastien Trudeau	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	RW	125	1.838	1058	0.118
Yanni Gourde	Victoriaville Tigres	C	122	1.794	1037	0.118
Logan Shaw	Cape Breton Screaming Eagle	RW	99	1.456	866	0.114
Martin Frk	Halifax Mooseheads	RW	110	1.774	971	0.113
Zach O'Brien	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	RW	119	2.052	1058	0.112
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	Gatineau Olympiques	C	139	2.075	1237	0.112
Benjamin Casavant	Shawinigan Cataractes	LW	121	1.779	1079	0.112
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	C	138	2.379	1233	0.112

 

Couturier ranked 20th in the QMJHL.  Note the player just in front of him at .113 - Martin Frk.  Frk, the talented Czech who will be draft eligible and maybe the prize of the draft in 2012, is already capable of carrying a CHL team.  Couturier is well clear of the Saint John players by this metric.

Couturier is not just a setup man - he's an excellent goal scorer as well.

Name	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	G/G
Étienne Brodeur	Lewiston MAINEiacs	68	53	30	83	0.779
Tye McGinn	Gatineau Olympiques	42	31	33	64	0.738
Philip-Michaël Devos	Gatineau Olympiques	68	47	67	114	0.691
Jonathan Hazen	Val-d'Or Foreurs	62	41	42	83	0.661
Marek Hrivik	Moncton Wildcats	59	38	41	79	0.644
Jonathan Huberdeau	Saint John Sea Dogs	67	43	62	105	0.642
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	61	39	57	96	0.639
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	58	36	60	96	0.621
Jonathan Lessard	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	62	37	29	66	0.597
Jonathan Marchessault	Québec Remparts	68	40	55	95	0.588

 

On a per game basis, Huberdeau and Couturier are very close - remarkable considering Saint John's dominance and firepower.

Couturier's play-making ability has been discussed since World Juniors' summer camp.  He's tall and rangy and has great ability down low as well as in transition.  His passing skills are second-to-none in this draft class.

Name	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	A/G
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	58	36	60	96	1.034
Gabriel Lévesque	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	68	37	70	107	1.029
Philip-Michaël Devos	Gatineau Olympiques	68	47	67	114	0.985
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	61	39	57	96	0.934
Jonathan Huberdeau	Saint John Sea Dogs	67	43	62	105	0.925
Alex Saulnier	Moncton Wildcats	65	25	60	85	0.923
Andrej Nestrasil	PEI Rocket	58	19	51	70	0.879
Joël Champagne	Québec Remparts	68	24	58	82	0.853
Zack Phillips	Saint John Sea Dogs	67	38	57	95	0.851
Dave Labrecque	Shawinigan Cataractes	58	27	48	75	0.828

 

He was the top man in the Q in assists per game and a big reason behind  Ondrej Palat's season.

To wrap it all up, the points per game looks just as good, if not better than all of the rest of the numbers.

Name	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	P/G
Philip-Michaël Devos	Gatineau Olympiques	68	47	67	114	1.68
Sean Couturier	Drummondville Voltigeurs	58	36	60	96	1.66
Gabriel Lévesque	Acadie-Bathurst Titan	68	37	70	107	1.57
Ondrej Palat	Drummondville Voltigeurs	61	39	57	96	1.57
Jonathan Huberdeau	Saint John Sea Dogs	67	43	62	105	1.57
Tye McGinn	Gatineau Olympiques	42	31	33	64	1.52
Zack Phillips	Saint John Sea Dogs	67	38	57	95	1.42
Jonathan Marchessault	Québec Remparts	68	40	55	95	1.4
Marek Hrivik	Moncton Wildcats	59	38	41	79	1.34
Jonathan Hazen	Val-d'Or Foreurs	62	41	42	83	1.34

 

Couturier was a point-scoring machine, missing the top spot in points per game by two points - thus losing the title to overager Philip-Michaël Devos.

Percentage of offense:

SumOil, the man behind our CHL bible, will have an upcoming article detailing the percentage of offensive contribution from all of the draft-eligible players he's been tracking in the CHL this season.  Should Couturier show favorably in comparison to his competition, Couturier should be a lock for the first forward drafted.

Sean Couturier is a huge center, an outstanding playmaker, an excellent goal scorer, an incredible faceoff man and a superior two-way player.  That the conversation isn't centered around Sean vs. Adam (doesn't have the same ring to it, now does it?) is strange.  That the scuttlebutt is Couturier falling out of the top five is laughable.