Kings v. Flames - Scoring Chances and Chance Analysis

You'll notice the title to this one is different, and that's because Kent Wilson has already scored this game, as he's been counting chances for the Flames this season. As such, I thought it would be good to compare our two totals and look closely at the plays we disagreed on, so you'll find that analysis below the chance tables after the jump.

As for the game itself, well it was another game where the Kings were outchanced pretty badly, which is surprising because they actually won the Corsi battle. When the season is over I'm going to look at how the Kings fared in chances, Fenwick, and Corsi, and I expect them to be much better in those last two. I know that shot quality is supposed to be a myth, but the Kings really do take a lot of "poor" shots in terms of shot location - there's a lot coming from the point, and a lot coming from outside. This was especially true of the top line who just couldn't muster anything in the middle of the ice at even strength. Oh, and good friend of the Oilers, Robyn Regehr, managed to take Justin Williams out of the game when he pounded him into the boards. Damned Regehr. Anyroad, this was a very physical game that was tied almost the whole time, but I think the Kings were pretty lucky to win, especially considering the number of posts the Flames hit.

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. Finally, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome scripts.

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21087

I had the Flames winning on total chances 16-9 compared to 20-14 for Kent. We here, however, much closer at even strength with me scoring the game 10-5 Calgary and Kent scoring it 12-6, so you know that the majority of the difference comes on special teams. In terms of common chances, we had it 13-7 for Calgary overall and 9-4 for Calgary at even strength. The Cohen Kappa Test that Vic set up for us comes in with a correlation of 0.53, which is actually pretty poor compared to the other games I've scored jointly with others. So let's take a look at the unique chances to see if there are any patterns:

Kent's Unique Chances

Cgy - 1st - 18:17 - Olli Jokinen one-timer from just outside the scoring area misses wide.
Lak - 1st - 13:39 - Jack Johnson point shot with some traffic; I wasn't convinced of a good screen, but I assume Kent was.
Cgy - 1st - 3:50 - Shot from Ales Kotalik from the top of the scoring area misses wide; I thought that Brad Richardson blocked it partially with his stick, but Kent obviously did not.
Cgy - 2nd - 17:43 - Mark Giordano with a point shot and two Flames are around the crease; I didn't think it was a good screen or tipped, but Kent disagrees.
Lak - 2nd - 14:20 - Jack Johnson with a slapper from either just inside or just outside the scoring area, and Dustin Penner in front.
Cgy - 2nd - 10:07 - Puck bounces off Olli Jokinen's skate after the initial shot and goes wide, but Quick is scrambling to get back in position; I didn't think Jokinen ever had control, but Kent probably disagrees.
Lak - 2nd - 3:11 - Jack Johnson with a point shot on the PP that misses high and wide from outside the scoring area, but there are some bodies in front of the net.
Lak - 2nd - 2:28 - Anze Kopitar with a slap shot from the middle of the ice and no screen. I thought he was outside the scoring area, but Kent evidently disagrees.
Lak - 2nd - 1:59 - Dustin Penner takes a one-timer, which I'm pretty sure was blocked in front, but I assume that Kent thinks it got through to the net.
Lak - 3rd - 18:10 - Ryan Smyth with a wrap-around and Miikka Kiprusoff is slow getting across; I generally don't count wrap-arounds, but can see why Kent scored this one.
Cgy - 3rd - 10:18 - A point shot from Anton Babchuk bounces off a Flame player and goes well wide; I basically scored this as a block since there was no intentional tip as far as I could tell, and the shot didn't come close to the net.
Cgy - 3rd - 10:06 - Shot from Rene Bourque on a rush; he's in the middle of the ice with no screen and I thought he was outside the scoring area.
Lak - 3rd - 5:54 - The puck comes from the corner straight back for a one-timer from outside the scoring area. The rebound off this shot is Jarret Stoll's goal.
Cgy - OT - 0:49 - Jarome Iginla with a wrist shot from what I thought was just outside the scoring area.

Scott's Unique Chances

Cgy - 1st - 9:45 - Alex Tanguay taps the puck toward the net on a broken play; not much velocity on the shot, but Jonathan Quick needs to make a save.
Cgy - 1st - 3:03 - Lance Bouma with a shot from in tight goes off the post; presumably, Kent didn't think Bouma ever really had control.
Lak - 2nd - 2:58 - Dustin Penner tips a shot from the point; Kent probably doesn't think this shot was tipped.
Lak - 3rd - 16:10 - A shot is blocked and Dustin Brown gathers the rebound for a shot, but he's just outside the scoring area.
Cgy - OT - 0:37 - Shot by Alex Tanguay from what I thought was the high slot, but Kent obviously disagrees.

Conclusions

For the most part there are the same old disagreements about shots from the edge of the scoring area, and there's not much to talk about there, although Kent would seem to be a bit more liberal, at least in this one. Those little disagreements will no doubt keep on happening. However, Kent also gives a lot more credit for shots from the point with traffic. I'm pretty particular about what constitutes a screen. Kent much less so, especially on the power play. I don't think either way goes against the definition of scoring chances listed above, but it might be something for the various scorers to discuss.