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Reader Mailbag: Andrew Cogliano's Progression

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A long-time reader e-mailed me yesterday: "I thought Ryan Jones was getting the short end of the Corsi stick because he was playing with terrible teammates.  The scoring chances stuff really opened my eyes and though I would still give him a 1 year deal for a million five, I am slowly coming over to your side on him.  Can you do the scoring chance segments for Cogliano?  He's getting better, right?"

I've got the numbers after the jump.

The table below contains Andrew Cogliano's scoring chances by ten-game segment.

TCF = Total even strength chances for on, TCA = Total even strength chances against on, SCF = Total even strength chances for on during the 10 game segment, SCA = Total even strength chances against on during the 10 game segment

Game # TCF TCA SCF SCA Period Average Raw Average
1-10 23 32 23 32 0.418 0.418
11-20 51 81 28 49 0.364 0.386
21-30 90 128 39 47 0.453 0.413
31-40 133 173 43 45 0.489 0.435
41-50 166 209 33 36 0.478 0.443
51-60 210 254 44 45 0.494 0.453
61-69 237 287 27 33 0.450 0.452

 

An upward trend!

Below is a graphical representation of the above table with Cogliano's season average and the Oilers' season average marked by the labeled red lines (click to enlarge):

Andrew_cogliano_-_scoring_chance_percentage_by_season_segment_medium

It's not only Cogliano's penalty killing that's improving - his even strength play is slowly trending upwards since the beginning of the season.  However, Cogliano's final chance percentage for 2009-2010 was 45.7% and he's not there yet.