With Ales Hemsky long-rumored to be headed to Los Angeles, it comes as something of a surprise to see Dustin Penner headed to the Kings. In return, the Kings will ship highly-regarded prospect Colten Teubert and their first round pick in 2011 as well as a either a second or third round pick in 2012 (depending on the Kings' playoff performance) to Edmonton. Thanks in part to Derek's Amicus Brief series from the beginning of last season and to Penner's solid play over the last several years, we know that Dustin Penner is a great player. But what about the assets Edmonton has coming back? We'll take a look after the jump.
The biggest asset coming to the Oilers is prospect Colten Teubert who was drafted 13th overall by the Kings in 2008, after being ranked 13th overall by Bob McKenzie just before the draft. Red Line Report, meanwhile, had Teubert as the sixth best defender in the draft just behind Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Luke Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo, and Tyler Myers, and just ahead of Tyler Cuma, Roman Josi, Luca Sbisa, and Brandon Burlon. That looks like an awfully big drop in quality and the line seems to be right beside Teubert. The question is, which side does he fall on? Here's what Red Line had to say before the draft:
After Myers, there's a significant drop down to the next tier of defenders.
Well, that doesn't necessarily mean Teubert is a bad pick-up. He has 10 points in 39 games for the Kings' AHL affiliate, the Manchester Monarchs, this season and his +7 rating is good enough for fifth on the club behind Vyacheslav Voynov, Jake Muzzin, Thomas Hickey, and Andrew Campbell. We know that last season Teubert faced the toughest minutes while in Regina thanks to Scott Reynolds' Qualcomp study on the Regina Pats. He did acquit himself quite well on a very bad team, so at least that's encouraging. Plus, as a former teammate of Jordan Eberle, we know that he must be good in the room, a quality highly valued by the Oilers' brass.
So that's Colten Teubert, a pretty good prospect who might one day turn into a shut-down defender in the NHL, but who might also top out as a third pairing bruiser. Not only is he not the Kings' top prospect, he's not even their top defensive prospect, and might not have been in their top three. So yeah, don't get your hopes up.
As for the draft picks... well, they're not great. They're good, but not great. The 2011 pick is very likely going to come in the 14th to 25th range, which Scott has as a 27.8% chance of becoming a good player. The conditional pick is obviously even lower than that, whether it ends up as a second rounder or a third rounder.
And that's why this is the donut trade. It's the man who loves donuts for a return with no centerpiece. Dean Lombardi has done a fantastic job here. He's moved three peripheral assets for an impact player, and that's always a good deal. Steve Tambellini? Well, he's done the opposite. Penner was young enough that he could have been part of the solution here, but instead he was sent packing. Will the Oilers get a player that can impact a game like Penner out of their three new prizes. Probably not.