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82 Game Pace At The Break

We've hit the Christmas break and every team has played at least 30 games. It means we've got a decent idea as to the skating talent levels via Corsi and Fenwick. I'll have a serious of posts coming up on those soon, but until then, I thought it interesting to take a look at the 82 game pace of each team in the league based strictly on points percentage.

West Rk Team Pts/82
1 Chicago Blackhawks 112
2 San Jose Sharks 105
3 Vancouver Canucks 103
4 St. Louis Blues 106
5 Detroit Red Wings 104
6 Minnesota Wild 103
7 Dallas Stars 99
8 Nashville Predators 94
9 Phoenix Coyotes 91
10 Los Angeles Kings 87
11 Calgary Flames 87
12 Colorado Avalanche 84
13 Edmonton Oilers 80
14 Anaheim Ducks 58
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 53
  • The class of the conference is quite familiar except for the Blues and each of the top 5 team has real power at even strength.
  • The next three teams, the Wild, Stars and Predators are all heavily PDO dependent. Dallas has improved slightly, but the Wild and Preds haven't.
  • The teams behind them, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Colorado are significantly better, but they all have significant ground to make up.
  • I've run a couple of simulations through the end of the season and in almost all of them, Minnesota hangs on to the 8th spot in the West. However, if there is one team due for a huge bounce, it's the Kings, so things could get very interesting in March.
  • According to the sims, (and barring major injury or trade) the playoff locks are Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose.
  • The only teams with no chance whatsoever are the Oilers, Ducks and Jackets.
East Rk Team Pts/82
1 Boston Bruins 117
2 New York Rangers 114
3 Florida Panthers 98
4 Philadelphia Flyers 111
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 103
6 New Jersey Devils 94
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 94
8 Washington Capitals 89
9 Ottawa Senators 89
10 Winnipeg Jets 87
11 Buffalo Sabres 84
12 Montreal Canadiens 75
13 Tampa Bay Lightning 75
14 New York Islanders 70
15 Carolina Hurricanes 64
  • The Eastern Conference is much less interesting because there are fewer good teams in the conference compared to the West.
  • The Bruins and healthy Penguins are ridiculously good teams, but the Rangers have stayed in front of the percentages thus far. However, if you were to pick an East team due for a PDO snap, it's the Rangers.
  • I ran the same sims for the East and found that you could throw a three-sided die for 8th place between the Leafs, Sens and Jets. However, should the Sabres get healthy, 8th is there for the taking.