We've hit the Christmas break and every team has played at least 30 games. It means we've got a decent idea as to the skating talent levels via Corsi and Fenwick. I'll have a serious of posts coming up on those soon, but until then, I thought it interesting to take a look at the 82 game pace of each team in the league based strictly on points percentage.
|2||San Jose Sharks||105|
|4||St. Louis Blues||106|
|5||Detroit Red Wings||104|
|10||Los Angeles Kings||87|
|15||Columbus Blue Jackets||53|
- The class of the conference is quite familiar except for the Blues and each of the top 5 team has real power at even strength.
- The next three teams, the Wild, Stars and Predators are all heavily PDO dependent. Dallas has improved slightly, but the Wild and Preds haven't.
- The teams behind them, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Colorado are significantly better, but they all have significant ground to make up.
- I've run a couple of simulations through the end of the season and in almost all of them, Minnesota hangs on to the 8th spot in the West. However, if there is one team due for a huge bounce, it's the Kings, so things could get very interesting in March.
- According to the sims, (and barring major injury or trade) the playoff locks are Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose.
- The only teams with no chance whatsoever are the Oilers, Ducks and Jackets.
|2||New York Rangers||114|
|6||New Jersey Devils||94|
|7||Toronto Maple Leafs||94|
|13||Tampa Bay Lightning||75|
|14||New York Islanders||70|
- The Eastern Conference is much less interesting because there are fewer good teams in the conference compared to the West.
- The Bruins and healthy Penguins are ridiculously good teams, but the Rangers have stayed in front of the percentages thus far. However, if you were to pick an East team due for a PDO snap, it's the Rangers.
- I ran the same sims for the East and found that you could throw a three-sided die for 8th place between the Leafs, Sens and Jets. However, should the Sabres get healthy, 8th is there for the taking.