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Oilers' Scoring Chance Totals

The Oilers edge ever closer to 30 games, the point where underlying stats begin to account for true talent, filtering out noise and sample size effects. Barring any major shifts in the numbers, very little in the scoring chance totals should surprise close observers. More interesting is our ability to adjust these chances for zonestarts, something Edmonton coach Tom Renney has managed very carefully.

The incomparable George Ays built our chance-adjusted model by using the data from his own scoring chance project for the Rangers, plus the data from Neil Greenberg's data for the Capitals and modeled scoring chances as JLikens modeled Corsi. While the sample size is extremely small and subject to enormous variance, George should be able to zero in on a more targeted number as the Scoring Chance Project wraps up 2011-12. The results of of George's model shows " offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances."

As always, thanks to Dennis King and mc79hockey for tracking and publishing the scoring chances. We owe them a debt of gratitude for their efforts.

TSC - even strength scoring chances for while on the ice; TSCA - even strength scoring chances against while on the ice; SC% - scoring chance percentage; CF/15 - even strength scoring chances for while on the ice per 15 minutes of even strength ice time; CA/15 - even strength scoring chances against while on the ice per 15 minutes of even strength ice time

Table is sortable by column, click on the row header

Player TSCF TSCA SC% CF/15 CA/15
Ryan Hopkins 90 75 0.545 4.494 3.745
Magnus Paajarvi 37 31 0.544 2.779 2.329
Taylor Hall 88 75 0.540 4.630 3.946
Ales Hemsky 49 46 0.516 4.630 4.346
Jordan Eberle 89 84 0.514 4.549 4.293
Forward Avg

0.487 3.530 3.715
Ryan Smyth 89 97 0.478 4.003 4.363
Anton Lander 29 32 0.475 2.170 2.395
Shawn Horcoff 85 96 0.470 4.003 4.520
Sam Gagner 37 42 0.468 2.945 3.343
Ryan Jones 57 67 0.460 3.082 3.623
Ben Eager 20 25 0.444 2.513 3.142
Eric Belanger 42 59 0.416 2.584 3.630
Lennart Petrell 20 33 0.377 1.855 3.061

Thanks to Tom Renney's careful management, Hopkins, Eberle and Hall lead the way in SC% and rank 2nd, 3rd and 4th in CF/15. Make note of Magnus Paajarvi's SC% - while the pucks aren't going in for him, he's still winning the battle and that's a more important measure of the player. Paajarvi's CF/15 rates are below team average, but his CA/15 is the best on the team. There's a player there - one who can play in both zones.

Despite their workload and zonestarts, Smyth and Horcoff are above team average in generating chances.

Table is sortable by column, click on the row header

Player TSCF TSCA SC% CF/15 CA/15
Ladislav Smid 95 89 0.516 3.726 3.490
Tom Gilbert 94 91 0.508 3.487 3.376
Jeff Petry 63 62 0.504 3.767 3.707
Corey Potter 60 62 0.492 3.624 3.745
Defense Avg

0.480 3.437 3.718
Theo Peckham 54 73 0.425 3.227 4.363
Andy Sutton 28 40 0.412 2.624 3.748
Cam Barker 33 48 0.407 2.644 3.846

The shutdown pairing of Smid and Gilbert are not only shutting the other team's best down (sort by CA/15), they're also above average in chances generated (sort by CF/15). While you've got the grid sorted by CF/15, check out Cam Barker's numbers.

The chance differential below has been calculated using the Ays Model:

Player Adj. Chance Diff/15
Ales Hemsky 0.805
Shawn Horcoff 0.503
Magnus Paajarvi 0.323
Ryan Smyth 0.309
Ryan Jones 0.218
Taylor Hall 0.036
Sam Gagner -0.094
Ryan Hopkins -0.164
Anton Lander -0.352
Jordan Eberle -0.592
Ben Eager -0.628
Eric Belanger -0.758
Lennart Petrell -1.206

Adjust for zonestarts and Horcoff, Smyth and Hemsky lead the way, surrounding, Paajarvi, shockingly enough.

Player Adj. Chance Diff/15
Ladislav Smid 0.269
Tom Gilbert 0.206
Jeff Petry -0.118
Corey Potter -0.403
Andy Sutton -0.726
Theo Peckham -0.983
Cam Barker -1.406

Even in the face of the qualcomp Gilbert and Smid have faced, they are still head and shoulders above their teammates. Cam Barker's numbers are mind-numbing in the face of the criticism Theo Peckham has received.