A Boy Named Sue (Sam)

And he said: " Son, this world is rough,and if a man is gonna make it he's gotta be tough, and I knew I wouldn't be there to help you along."

-Johnny Cash, A Boy Named Sue

Sam Gagner is an excellent example of what Malcolm Gladwell and Daniel Coyle have been trying to tell us. The theory is that opportunity deep practice and high level coaching / mentoring from a young age can provide a person with extrordinary skills that often are mistaken for innate talent.

Sam's dad is Dave Gagner. He was a high round draft pick, a very good (if not elite) NHL player, and since his playing days has been involved in coaching and scouting in both the CHL and NHL. Dave is also founded Custom Ice Rinks, Inc., a company that manufactures permanent and portable ice skating rinks. I only mention this because Sam has often spoke of his time spent on his home rink as a big factor in his development.

Lowetide often talks about comparables. He sites Doug Gilmour and Vincent Dampousse as the closest thing to Sammy. I have alway found these just a little bit off. The obvious comp to my way of thinking is none other than dear old Dad.

There has been alot of talk about how high the ceiling is for Sam. Some think he will never be the prototypical (but often not defined) 1st line center that all fans crave. Some talk of trading him while he is still worth something because he is too soft and doesn't score enough. Some want to give him time, he is only 21!

I thought it would be a good exercise to run through Daves career numbers and see how Sammy stacks up so far and where he might go in the future.

First up : Sammy

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #1	2007-08	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	13	36	49	23
Post Draft year #2	2008-09	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	76	16	25	41	51
Post Draft year #3	2009-10	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	68	15	26	41	33
Post Draft year #4	2010-11	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	82	17	27	44	30
		Totals		269	61	114	175	137

(note: I prorated Sammys production for this year).

Now : Dad

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #1	1983-84	Canadian National Team	Intl	43	15	22	37	34
	1983-84	Brantford Alexanders	OHL	12	7	13	20	4
Post Draft year #2	1984-85	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	38	13	20	33	23
	1984-85	New York Rangers	NHL	38	6	6	12	16
Post Draft year #3	1985-86	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	16	10	11	21	11
	1985-86	New York Rangers	NHL	32	4	6	10	19
Post Draft year #4	1986-87	New Haven Nighthawks	AHL	56	22	41	63	50
	1986-87	New York Rangers	NHL	10	1	4	5	12
		NHL Totals		80	11	16	27	47
		Minor League Totals		165	67	107	174	122

The first thing that jumps out at you is Dave's development curve. He didn't see the NHL his first post draft year and then was up and down for the next 3 years. Overall, he spent twice as many games in the minors as he did in the show. Sammy got the promotion straight to the big leagues.

Sammy has produced at 0.65 points per game and Dave at 0.82. Considering the level of opposition they were each playing this has to be considered a wash if not an edge to Sammy.

Now the rest of Daves career.

		TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	P	PM
Post Draft year #5	1987-88	Kalamazoo Wings	IHL	14	16	10	26	26
	1987-88	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	51	8	11	19	55
Post Draft year #6	1988-89	Kalamazoo Wings	IHL	1	0	1	1	4
	1988-89	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	75	35	43	78	104
Post Draft year #7	1989-90	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	79	40	38	78	54
Post Draft year #8	1990-91	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	73	40	42	82	114
Post Draft year #9	1991-92	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	78	31	40	71	107
Post Draft year #10	1992-93	Minnesota North Stars	NHL	84	33	43	76	143
Post Draft year #11	1993-94	Dallas Stars	NHL	76	32	29	61	83
Post Draft year #12	1994-95	Dallas Stars	NHL	48	14	28	42	42
	1994-95	Courmaosta HC	Italy	1	4	0	4	0
Post Draft year #13	1995-96	Dallas Stars	NHL	45	14	13	27	44
Post Draft year #14	1995-96	Toronto Maple Leafs	NHL	28	7	15	22	59
Post Draft year #15	1996-97	Calgary Flames	NHL	82	27	33	60	48
Post Draft year #16	1997-98	Florida Panthers	NHL	78	20	28	48	55
Post Draft year #17	1998-99	Florida Panthers	NHL	36	4	10	14	39
Post Draft year #18	1998-99	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	33	2	12	14	24
		NHL Totals		866	307	385	692	971

Dave spends another year bouncing back up and down and then really hits his stride in his 6th post draft year at the age of 23. He posts 3 consecutive years of better than a point per game and then starts a slow ramp down in point production. His peak years are his 6th, 7th and 8th post draft years at the age of 23, 24, 25.

One thing I find interesting is Dave's rise in penalty minutes that accompanies his establishing himself in the NHL. I did a quick check on hockeyfights.com to see if he was racking up majors. He has one or two a year against noted knuckle throwers like Paul Coffey and Mark Lamb, but it seems like his 100+ PMs a year are mostly minors.

So, a few of points in conclusion.

- Give Sammy another year or two before we write him off

- Maybe Sam should think about punching Paul Coffey in the face, or at least stepping up his aggression levels to carve a little more space.

- The Oilers only own his rights until he is 25 and can opt for UFA. If he holds to his Dads form, this will be the beginning of his most productive stretch.

- The Oilers could have owned these years cheaply if they had developed Sam at the same pace as his Dad.

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