There have been rumblings of late that Dustin Penner is "back to his old self" in Edmonton. Most of the backlash is from fans, looking for a scapegoat to blame for the losing streaks and scoring slump. Words like "lazy", "disinterested", and "slow" are starting to creep back into the narrative. There is even a welling up of support to "just play the kids." Everything old is new again, eh? However, Penner continues to lead the Oilers in scoring chances and chances differential (for qualifying players) and shots. Why has the well dried up?
The chart below shows the leading scorer on all 30 NHL teams (even strength goals are the tie-breaker), the breakdown of their goals by ES and PP, and the percentage of goals that the leading scorer has accounted for thus far in 2009-2010. Penner is 10th in total goal percentage in the NHL, trailing Alberta poster-boy Jarome Iginla by a fraction and leading newly-rich Rick Nash by a fraction.
|
Leading Scorer |
ES |
PP |
Total |
% of ES |
% of PP |
% of Total |
|
Gaborik |
21 |
13 |
35 |
20.59% |
31.71% |
23.33% |
|
Stamkos |
18 |
13 |
32 |
18.75% |
29.55% |
22.07% |
|
Crosby |
28 |
10 |
39 |
21.54% |
26.32% |
21.67% |
|
Marleau |
24 |
11 |
38 |
18.60% |
21.57% |
19.49% |
|
Kovalchuk |
21 |
10 |
31 |
17.95% |
26.32% |
18.45% |
|
Ovechkin |
32 |
10 |
42 |
20.38% |
16.67% |
18.26% |
|
Parise |
20 |
5 |
26 |
20.41% |
13.51% |
17.69% |
|
Cammalleri |
22 |
4 |
26 |
22.22% |
8.89% |
17.45% |
|
Iginla |
17 |
7 |
24 |
16.67% |
20.59% |
16.33% |
|
Penner |
17 |
6 |
23 |
17.17% |
15.38% |
16.31% |
|
Nash |
15 |
8 |
25 |
15.31% |
18.60% |
16.23% |
|
Kopitar |
16 |
10 |
27 |
13.68% |
23.81% |
15.70% |
|
Ryan |
17 |
8 |
25 |
15.04% |
20.00% |
15.43% |
|
Moulson |
18 |
3 |
21 |
18.18% |
9.09% |
15.00%
|
|
Hornqvist |
15 |
8 |
23 |
13.51% |
23.53% |
14.84% |
|
Neal |
20 |
2 |
23 |
18.02% |
4.65% |
14.20% |
|
Carter |
14 |
8 |
23 |
13.46% |
15.69% |
14.02% |
|
Sedin |
21 |
3 |
25 |
17.65% |
6.00% |
13.81% |
|
Sturm |
15 |
2 |
18 |
16.30% |
5.71% |
13.64% |
|
Weiss |
13 |
7 |
20 |
12.75% |
20.00% |
13.61% |
|
Jokinen |
13 |
7 |
20 |
13.00% |
17.50% |
13.16% |
|
Kessel |
15 |
6 |
21 |
12.61% |
15.79% |
13.04% |
|
Kane |
16 |
6 |
22 |
12.31% |
15.00% |
12.22% |
|
Vrbata |
14 |
5 |
19 |
12.28% |
13.51% |
12.18% |
|
Fisher |
12 |
7 |
19 |
10.34% |
23.33% |
11.88% |
|
McDonald |
12 |
5 |
17 |
11.65% |
13.89% |
11.56% |
|
Vanek |
9 |
8 |
17 |
8.33% |
19.51% |
10.97% |
|
Zetterberg |
13 |
3 |
16 |
13.40% |
7.69% |
10.96% |
|
Stewart |
16 |
2 |
18 |
14.29% |
4.88% |
10.78% |
|
Miettinen |
12 |
4 |
16 |
10.71% |
10.26% |
10.19% |
To show just how bleak the rest of the roster is, Sam Gagner, the team's second-leading goal-scorer, has 14 goals. That's second-worst in the league for a second-leading goal-scorer, "trailing" only Boston's Blake Wheeler. The percentage dropoff from Penner to Gagner is 39.13%, 4th highest in the league. The three men above Penner on the corresponding list are Marian Gaborik, Sidney Crosby and Ilya Kovalchuk and the latter's 31 goals are the lowest total among that group.
|
2nd leading Scorer |
Total |
% Dropoff |
|
Callahan |
15 |
57.14% |
|
Malkin |
20 |
48.72% |
|
Afinogenov |
18 |
41.94% |
|
Gagner |
14 |
39.13% |
|
Gionta |
16 |
38.46% |
|
Semin |
26 |
38.10% |
|
Zajac |
17 |
34.62% |
|
Malone |
21 |
34.38% |
|
Smyth |
18 |
33.33% |
|
Wheeler |
13 |
27.78% |
|
Bourque |
18 |
25.00% |
|
Umberger |
19 |
24.00% |
|
Erat |
18 |
21.74% |
|
Tavares |
17 |
19.05% |
|
Perry |
21 |
16.00% |
|
Heatley |
32 |
15.79% |
|
Horton |
17 |
15.00% |
|
Toews |
19 |
13.64% |
|
Perron |
15 |
11.76% |
|
Pominille |
15 |
11.76% |
|
Bertuzzi |
15 |
6.25% |
|
Upshall |
18 |
5.26% |
|
Hagman |
20 |
4.76% |
|
Eriksson |
22 |
4.35% |
|
Burrows |
25 |
0.00% |
|
Duchene |
18 |
0.00% |
|
Richards |
23 |
0.00% |
|
Staal |
20 |
0.00% |
|
Koivu |
16 |
0.00% |
|
Michalek |
19 |
0.00% |
The lesson, as it has been for the last three years in Edmonton, is that real NHL players are needed to score goals. Counting on one guy to lug AHL'ers and replacement players up and down the ice doesn't work and is the primary contributor to Penner's recent slump.