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Counting scoring chances is simply recording observed on-ice events in the same manner official NHL scorers count things like hits, takeaways, giveaways, blocked shots and shots. Scoring chances, at least those counted by our stable of intrepid internet writers, are more accurate than stats counted by official scorers due mostly to the seven gentlemen counting chances this season who adhere to a single definition of a scoring chance:
A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.
Dennis King at MC79hockey.com, has been counting scoring chances for the Oilers for two seasons and thanks to by Vic Ferrari of timeonice.com and his tracking tools, compiling the data is simple. Due to a bug the data does not yet include the November 7th win at Chicago, the November 9th loss at Carolina, the November 19th loss versus Phoenix and the November 21st win at Anaheim.
One of the truly interesting aspects of tracking scoring chances for the same team over the course of a season is how quickly the primary generators become apparent after a short time. Just like last season, Dustin Penner is primary driver, and the only other forward in the black is Sam Gagner.
Overall, the the forward group has a chance differential of -1.396 per fifteen minutes of even strength ice time, significantly worse than last season's -.886 per fifteen.
*click on column header to sort
| FORWARD | TSC | TSCA | CF/15 | CA/15 | SCDIFF | DIFF/15 |
| D. PENNER | 57 | 49 | 4.206 | 3.616 | 8 | 0.590 |
| S. GAGNER | 62 | 59 | 4.222 | 4.018 | 3 | 0.204 |
| A. HEMSKY | 59 | 61 | 4.395 | 4.544 | -2 | -0.149 |
| T. HALL | 68 | 80 | 4.286 | 5.042 | -12 | -0.756 |
| S. HORCOFF | 54 | 69 | 4.110 | 5.251 | -15 | -1.142 |
| J. EBERLE | 64 | 82 | 4.280 | 5.483 | -18 | -1.204 |
| Fwd Average | 527 | 736 | 3.521 | 4.918 | -209 | -1.396 |
| Z. STORTINI | 17 | 26 | 3.657 | 5.593 | -9 | -1.936 |
| G. BRULE | 30 | 60 | 2.321 | 4.641 | -30 | -2.321 |
| S. MACINTYRE | 2 | 5 | 1.568 | 3.921 | -3 | -2.353 |
| J.F. JACQUES | 2 | 7 | 0.994 | 3.479 | -5 | -2.485 |
| A. COGLIANO | 39 | 73 | 2.958 | 5.536 | -34 | -2.579 |
| C. FRASER | 19 | 42 | 2.420 | 5.350 | -23 | -2.930 |
| R. JONES | 22 | 48 | 2.600 | 5.672 | -26 | -3.072 |
| M. PAAJARVI | 32 | 75 | 2.339 | 5.483 | -43 | -3.144 |
Like the forwards, the defense is down approximately one-half of one chance more per fifteen minutes compared to last season. No regular defenseman is in the black this season.
*click on column header to sort
| DEFENSEMAN | TSC | TSCA | CF/15 | CA/15 | SCDIFF | DIFF/15 |
| S. BELLE | 5 | 5 | 2.595 | 2.595 | 0 | 0.000 |
| L. SMID | 52 | 64 | 3.669 | 4.516 | -12 | -0.847 |
| T. GILBERT | 70 | 86 | 3.890 | 4.779 | -16 | -0.889 |
| Def Average | 350 | 494 | 3.517 | 4.964 | -144 | -1.447 |
| R. WHITNEY | 63 | 91 | 3.427 | 4.951 | -28 | -1.523 |
| J. VANDERMEER | 41 | 58 | 3.904 | 5.522 | -17 | -1.619 |
| T. PECKHAM | 50 | 75 | 3.298 | 4.948 | -25 | -1.649 |
| J. STRUDWICK | 24 | 38 | 3.041 | 4.816 | -14 | -1.774 |
| K. FOSTER | 45 | 77 | 3.338 | 5.712 | -32 | -2.374 |
Should the chances differential continue through the rest of the season, expect the Oilers' even strength goal differential to be approximately fifteen to twenty goals worse than the -56 posted 2009-2010.
One player of interest, Theo Peckham, has been the subject of some discussion due to his noticeable physical play. Below is a WOWY comparison for the defensive corps with Theo Peckham on the ice.
| # | With Peckham | % | Peckham Without | % | |||
| 2 | 23 | 35 | 0.397 | 27 | 40 | 0.403 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 49 | 75 | 0.395 | |
| 6 | 3 | 17 | 0.150 | 47 | 58 | 0.448 | |
| 26 | 7 | 12 | 0.368 | 43 | 63 | 0.406 | |
| 43 | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 48 | 73 | 0.397 | |
| 45 | 18 | 12 | 0.600 | 32 | 63 | 0.337 | |
| 49 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| 77 | 14 | 10 | 0.583 | 36 | 65 | 0.356 | |
By request, here is the WOWY for Magnus Paajarvi:
|
# |
With Paajarvi | % | Paajarvi Without | % | |||
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 32 | 74 | 0.302 | |
| 10 | 10 | 13 | 0.435 | 22 | 62 | 0.262 | |
| 13 | 8 | 24 | 0.250 | 24 | 51 | 0.320 | |
| 14 | 12 | 19 | 0.387 | 20 | 56 | 0.263 | |
| 27 | 0 | 5 | 0.000 | 32 | 70 | 0.314 | |
| 67 | 8 | 24 | 0.250 | 24 | 51 | 0.320 | |
| 83 | 7 | 14 | 0.333 | 25 | 61 | 0.291 | |
| 89 | 10 | 24 | 0.294 | 22 | 51 | 0.301 | |