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2009 NHL Draft: Revisiting 2001 With Math

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The 2001 NHL Draft saw a much better job done by scouts than the previous three years; at least, when it came to making North American selections.  Here's the draft order:

  1. Jason Spezza
  2. Stephen Weiss
  3. Ales Hemsky
  4. Colby Armstrong
  5. Adrian Foster

And here they are again, this time ranked by percentage of total team offense:

  1. Jason Spezza (63.8%)
  2. Stephen Weiss (37.7%)
  3. Adrian Foster (37.3%)
  4. Ales Hemsky (36.8%)
  5. Colby Armstrong (25.7%)

This is a decidedly worse ranking, although it should be noted that Foster played in only five games; in other words, anyone with half a clue about statistics would know not to trust that sample.  Spezza's number is phenomenal, although he had a hot stretch for a miserable Missisauga team (before getting moved to Windsor) that probably inflated his totals too much.

Regardless, the NHL scouts are well ahead of the undiscriminating math.  Let's se if that changes with late round gems.  Here's my list of steals from 2001:

  • Derek Roy (32nd overall)
  • Jason Pominville (55th overall)
  • Kyle Wellwood (134th overall)
  • Ryan Clowe (175th overall)
  • Brooks Laich (193rd overall)
  • Marek Svatos (227th overall)

Here they are again, this time ranked by percentage of team offense:

  1. Derek Roy (46.3%)
  2. Kyle Wellwood (42.9%)
  3. Jason Pominville (30.6%)
  4. Marek Svatos (26.5%)
  5. Ryan Clowe (21.0%)
  6. Brooks Laich (10.6%)

I'd give this one ot the NHL scouts, and this well illustrates the need to use discernment with statistics.  Kyle Wellwood's a uniquely talented player, but he's got all sorts of warts and there are good reasons for him bouncing around the waiver wire the last few seasons.  The math has an edge with Derek Roy, but the scouts were better this year - which they obviously should be.