Full disclosure: I'm not an Oilers fan. I have, however, become all too aware of the Oilers over recent years because of their intelligent and passionate fan base - if I want to read smart writing on hockey, places like here and mc79hockey and Irreverent Oiler Fans is where I've got to go. These places feature endless ranting about the Oilers' current management, most of which is completely justified. Yet I've come here not to bury Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe, nor to praise them; I will defend their management strategy even if it is terrible at the margins. There are plenty of debacles and they've all been chronicled here ad infinitum, but there's some good, even if it can't be seen right away. My defense will be based on three things, after the jump:

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After watching both Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins suffer moderate injuries in their 18 year old season, I couldn't help but think of players like David Perron and Victor Hedman who also suffered some pretty serious injuries in their teenage years while playing in the NHL.

This lead me to question whether players who come into the NHL at 18 or 19 tend to get hurt more than players who are kept out of the NHL until they are 20 and older. I went from the 2005 draft until this season for my data and only looked at players who were picked in the first 2 rounds.

I only went to 04-05 because the lockout in 04-05 prevented some players from playing as 18 or 19 year olds who might otherwise have. I also only focused on the first 2 rounds because there were no 3rd round picks to play as 18 year olds, but there were several 2nd round picks who did. The other criteria that I used was that a season had to consist of more 10 or more NHL games to count as a first season.

In order for an injury to count, it had to be documented by TSN in the player’s bio. Illness (such as Kessel’s cancer), or injuries that occurred outside of the NHL (i.e. an AHL injury or Erik Johnson’s golf injury) are not factored in.

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Against my better judgement I read most of what Edmonton's main stream media writes about the Oilers. I don't agree with most, rarely any, of what the people paid to report on the team have to say since it tends to do nothing more than advance the Oilers message without questioning anything. But I read it all the same. What can I say, I'm a glutton for punishment, something you may have already figured out from the fact that I not only pay for season tickets but also continue to attend the games.

Now under normal circumstances when I disagree with something written by the MSM I will respond by mocking the story on Twitter because it's a simple way to vent my frustration, allowing me to get on with my day. Such was the case when I read John MacKinnon's most recent story on the Oilers stressing that Steve Tambellini needs to stay the course with the rebuild. But even after having chirped the story on Twitter I didn't feel any better because this story was, somehow, worse than most. Given that remarkable accomplishment I felt that the story needed closer examination.

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With a little over two months left in the season it's become quite clear that the Oilers will finish the year, just like they have the last two, in a lottery position. This result is not what Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini expected and it's not what a lot of the fans were anticipating. Despite the season being a failure by this measure the media is telling fans that the Oilers need to stay the course, that Tambellini has done a good job and as a result will likely be rewarded with a new contract in the near future.

The main reason being given for allowing Tambellini to continue in his efforts to rebuild the Oilers is that there has been progress made this season even if it isn't showing up in the standings. The powerplay is better. The penalty kill is better. The goal differential is better. These are things I've been told by many fans on Twitter and most of the recent articles written about Tambellini and/or head coach Tom Renney say the same thing.

But are the Oilers really improved in these areas or is there something else driving the numbers? Derek has already looked at the Oilers powerplay results and while the Oilers have certainly improved with the man advantage this season, the results are likely unsustainable. That's not a good sign for progress. After the jump I'll look at the progress the Oilers have made when killing a penalty and when they're playing at even strength and what has been the biggest contributing factor.

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Much has already been made of the rumours that Steve Tambellini is in talks with the Oilers for a contract extension. The architect of the current Oilers, according to some, should be able to see his rebuild through to the very end.

I disagree. I disagree so strongly that if such a move were to be made, I’d give up on the team that I’ve loved as long as I can remember. It’s a team that’s been as big a part of my life as anything outside of school, work or family. A team so much a part of me that one of my earliest childhood memories is looking through the sports sections for the Oilers score when I could barely read.

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The Edmonton Oilers have improved by one win in the standings in two years.

Through all of the buster and blather, the fluster and dither, the Oilers are still flat-lining. The President has talked about restoring the franchise to it's former glory for six years. He's on his third rebuild The General Manager has talked about changing something for three years. He's overhauled the roster in his own image and he's on his second coach.

It doesn't matter if this is rebuild v 1.5, (rebuild by trading Pronger and Smyth) v 2.3 (rebuild by spending to the cap and remake the team in Steve Tambellini's image), or v. 3.2 (rebuild with first overall picks because the first two methodologies failed), one win isn't good enough. The Oilers need change, but not in the way of a new coach and another draft pick in exchange for Ales Hemsky. The Oilers need to clear out the front offices at Rexall Place and do so before the trade deadline.

That's the episode of Oil Change fans of this team deserve to see.

When I last checked in on the keys to the Oilers season after the first 20 games of the season, the hot start had faded but things still looked decent for the team. They'd won as many as they'd lost and thanks to two shootout losses were a couple of points above the Bettman version of .500. With 22 points the Oilers weren't in a playoff position but they were just one point behind eighth place. Things looked okay and while I wasn't ready to declare the Oilers a playoff contender I had to concede that "there [was] a sliver of hope that Hall could be right about this team making the playoffs."

But 21 games later the Oilers reached the season's midway point with the dreams of making the playoffs, or even playing meaningful games in March, long gone. Instead the Oilers are now staring directly at a third consecutive lottery pick after going 6-14-1 in the season's second quarter. So what happened? After the jump I take a look at what I'd previously identified as keys to this season - being better against the Northwest Division, a change in the Oilers number one goalie, getting off to better starts, staying healthy, and avoiding sophomore slumps - to see if there are hints there as to what's gone wrong.

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With yesterday's loss the Oilers have now completed the first half of the 2011/12 NHL schedule. The first half of the season saw the team shoot out of the gates posting a 8-2-2 record in the first weeks of the season, a pace that even the most optimistic fan knew wasn't sustainable but was fun all the same. Since that fast start however, the season has taken a decidedly negative turn as both losses and injuries have started to pile up and the team has fallen down the Western Conference standings making the dream of playing meaningful games in March looks less and less likely by the day.

The Oilers 16-22-3 record is good for 35 points and 13th place in the Western Conference. For those who thought the Oilers would be significantly improved in the standings this season this has to be a little disappointing as the Oilers reached the midway points with 33 points last season and 36 the season before and we all know how those seasons ended. Perhaps the biggest plus this season might be that the Oilers aren't already at the bottom of the Western Conference standings like they were in each of the two previous seasons by the time game 41 had come and gone. Don't let it be said that there hasn't been progress.

The season hasn't been all negative by any means though. The play of the Chosen Line can't been seen as anything other than positive. The same can be said for Ryan Smyth who has played like a man much younger than he is. Or Ryan Jones who has surprised a number of his detractors by making a commitment to defensive play that has made him a much better player than he was last season. Or even Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid who have been leaned on heavily in the absence of Ryan Whitney and other players capable of playing a top four role in the NHL.

After the jump I'll hand out the Oilers mid-season awards for Biggest Surprise, Biggest Disappointment , and Most Valuable Player.

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