Back in December, I looked at which goalies were benefiting from a high penalty kill save percentage.  By the time December rolls around people begin to look at overall save percentage statistics and see some weight in them because the sample size is getting larger.  This is very true when it comes to save percentages at even strength for starting goaltenders (though there will of course still be quite a bit of variation) but penalty kill save percentage is still often based on very few shots.  Thanks to some recent work by Gabriel Desjardins, we can see just how much penalty kill save percentage, even over an entire season (or two seasons!) tends to regress toward league average.  Thus, a very high save percentage on the PK is an indication that a goaltender's overall save percentage has a good chance of declining as the season goes on and a very low save percentage on the PK is an indication that a goaltender's overall save percentage has a very good chance of increasing as the season goes on. Already by January 9th we had begun to see this regression take place.  After the jump we'll take another look at what our leaders have done since December 8th and which goalies might look better than they are as we (well, some of "you" I suppose) head into the playoffs.

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On the weekend I wrote a little bit about individual point percentage (points per goal).  Individual point percentage is a describes the number of times an individual player gets a point (either a goal or an assist) relative to the number of total goals scored while he's on the ice.  For example, if a player is on the ice for fifty goals-for at even strength over the course of the season and  he gets a point on twenty of them, his individual point percentage would be 40%.  I first read about the concept in an article by Tyler Dellow, which, if you didn't read already on the weekend, I highly recommend.  At any rate, my discussion on the weekend was limited to forwards.  After the jump, we'll take a look at defenders.

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More photos » Jim Prisching - AP

14 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Ryan Jones (28) watches the puck slide past the Chicago Blackhawks' Cristobal Huet (39) during the first period of an NHL Hockey game Wednesday, March 3, 2010, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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When you cheer for a last-place team, there's not a lot of dates you can look forward to. Even rivalry games like the Battle of Alberta bring only a lingering sense of dread at the degree of obliteration that seems certain to follow. Every more mundane match carries with it the vaguely exciting possibility of a 10-0 loss, but the excitement there is more akin to jaywalking the Whitemud in rush hour while carrying an overflowing garbage bag full of feces.

One of the few hopeful occasions that remains on the calendar is the annual NHL trade deadline. There is, of course, a fringe of terror that our inept and uninspiring general manager will sell the heart of the team for magic beans (again), but there is also the chance that he'll being in some exciting new commodity, or maybe foist Steve Staios's killer contract off on a rival while actually getting something back in return. This ambivalence is the closest thing to excitement I can feel in my charcoal black heart of late.

So the Copper & Blue gathered its collective intellect, meeting in a secret location deep in the Rocky Mountains where generations of Oiler fans have been drawn to practice their dark rites (or possibly we swapped e-mails for the last week). Our profound experience and limitless wisdom were put to one purpose and one purpose only: to answer the question which galls us so thoroughly.

That question being: after Steve Tambellini's moves on trade deadline week, are the Oilers set to be better or worse in the future?

After the jump, our responses.

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More photos » Paul Vernon - AP

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In my recent article on Sam Gagner I mentioned his "individual point percentage" as one of the reasons to see him as progressing rather than stagnating over his first three seasons. So what isindividual point percentage?  Well, it's a calculation of the number of times an individual player gets a point (either a goal or an assist) compared to the number of total goals scored while he's on the ice.  So, for example, if a player is on the ice for fifty goals-for at even strength over the course of the season and  he gets a point on forty of them, his individual point percentage would be 80%.  The first time that I'd ever heard seen this was when Tyler Dellow used it and he called it points per goal.  I probably should have just followed that convention but I didn't find the article until recently and I'd already made up my fun charts.  So yeah, individual point percentage or points per goal.  Same thing.  Let me know which term you find clearer in the comments.

In this article, I've calculated the individual point percentage for all of the forwards who played at least 50 games in the NHL in each of the last three seasons.  After the jump I'll present the data and talk a little bit about what it means in some specific instances.

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He's huge.  He's mean.  He's ugly.  He turn like a oil tanker in open water.  He throws hands like an angry Norse god.  He's Derek Boogaard, enforcer extraordinaire for the Minnesota Wild.  Depending on who you ask around the NHL, Boogaard has been the most effective enforcer and fighter in the NHL for a number of years because unlike Georges Laraque, Boogaard goes out of his way to hurt people.  With an elbow here, a knee there, and a forearm over there to go with his fists, Boogaard's time on the ice is rarely low-event, but does his time spent striking fear in the hearts of lesser men throughout the NHL worth it?  Do his fists cover the goals against?  Let's investigate below the jump.

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More photos » Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

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Before the trade deadline I looked at how each of the teams in the Northwest division.  Now that the deadline has come and gone, let's take a look at what they did.  I will again by looking both at how the moves impact their rosters this season and at how their rosters look going forward using the following little cap space guideline:

Top 3 Forwards - 27.5%
Middle 6 Forwards - 20.0%
Top 4 Defenders - 27.5%
Goaltending - 10.0%
Bottom 8 Players - 15.0%

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All five of us agreed that Sam Gagner is the best Oiler under age 25 and I would imagine that this is pretty close to unanimous among Oiler fans in general.  The reasons for the selection are numerous but there are two that stick out when you compare Gagner to everyone else in this exercise.  The first and most important: Sam Gagner is helping his NHL team win games right now in a significant role.  The second, which is still important: he's still getting better.  After the jump, we'll take some time to look at, not whether or not Gagner will be good, but at how good he might become. 

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More photos » Paul Connors - AP

Ryan Whitney was the biggest name acquired by Steve Tambellini in a frenzied 72-hour period which saw the departure of three high-priced defencemen and the disability of two more.

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Well that was quite the 72 hours. On Monday afternoon came news of the departure of Denis Grebeshkov and the disc problems of Ladi Smid; on Tuesday prospect Cody Wild was sent packing; and today two more high priced defencemen left town while a third has developed a troubling medical condition. In return the Oilers acquired two maturing defencemen, three draft picks, a whole bunch of cap room, and possibly the worst defensive crew in the National Hockey League. Oh yeah, and a physical forward picked up on waivers. Not to mention a very welcome show of the long-rumoured but rarely-seen Katz Bucks.

The transactions:

Monday

Recall G Devan Dubnyk, D Taylor Chorney, and D Theo Peckham from Springfield Falcons
Announce D Ladislav Smid is out indefinitely with a bulging disc in his neck
Trade D Denis Grebeshkov to Nashville Predators for a 2010 2nd rounder

Tuesday

Trade D Cody Wild to Boston Bruins for F Matt Marquardt

Wednesday

Claim F Ryan Jones off waivers from Nashville
Trade D Lubomir Visnovsky to Anaheim Ducks for D Ryan Whitney and a 2010 6th rounder
Trade D Steve Staios to Calgary Flames (!!!) for D Aaron Johnson and a 2010 3rd rounder
Announce D Sheldon Souray is out for the rest of the season with a post-surgery infection in his hand
Recall D Johan Motin and D Mean Dean Arsene from SF

***

Analysis after the jump ...

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