Corey Potter has had an up and down season with the Oilers. He stepped in at the beginning of the year and did a remarkable job not just as regular part of the defensive rotation, but also on the PP.

Lately though, things have been a bit rough for him. He missed significant time due to an injury, he Frankenstein’d Taylor Hall during a freak accident in warm up and his on ice play has tailed off.

One of the most significant problems he’s had is his defensive play on the rush. It isn’t that he’s getting beat by skaters, he’s just constantly finding himself in bad situations and having to react to a play instead of seeing it develop.

Coach Nielsen does a pretty good job breaking down the defenseman’s responsibilities on the 2 on 1. The Key points are as follows:

• The D’s Initial Positioning is between the attackers.
• The D should have one hand on his stick and the stick extended from the body.
• The D must keep their head on a swivel to check the positioning off the puck.
• The stick can be used to push the puck carrier wider or lure him into making a pass before he’s ready.
• As play progresses below the tops of the circles, the stick should be pointed a bit more toward the puck carrier than directly in front of the body to cut down on the space between stick and skates that attacker could use to pass the puck.

I'll use a recent example against the Chicago Blackhawks to demonstrate some of Potter's deficiencies in this situation.

Continue reading this post »

How are the Oilers' lines faring in each type of start? Is Tom Renney giving the right guys o-zone starts? Should he go to an extreme Vigneaultesque strategy?

To shed some light on these issues, I've used play-by-play data to separate ice time into three categories:

Offensive - the most recent faceoff was in the attacking zone and no player from that faceoff has left the ice.

Defensive - the most recent faceoff was in the Oilers' defensive zone, all players from it remain on the ice.

Neutral - the most recent faceoff was in the neutral zone and/or a change has taken place.

The Oilers have changed their lines around a lot more than the Canucks, for example, so it's not as simple to break down. I've decided to look at Shawn Horcoff, Eric Belanger and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins individually and group all the time together where none of those were on the ice. Much of that was with Gagner or Lander in the middle. Hockey is messy with more fluid positions than other sports, but this should give us a good idea who is doing what in each zone. On top of the usual teammate and opponent effects, we are dealing with small sample sizes. Try to take the exact numbers with a grain of salt and focus on the patterns. Here is a table with the Corsi rate in each type of ice time:

Continue reading this post »

Tyler Pitlick remains one of the most intriguing prospects in the Oilers' pipeline. Aside from Taylor Hall and Jeff Petry, he might be the only five-tool prospect on the list. Problem is, Pitlick hasn't been able to put those tools together in a dominant season or dominant run to this point. When I first introduced Pitlick to this list, I talked about his physical gifts:

"If this were baseball and we were talking about a five-tool center, Pitlick would fit the bill. He's a good skater, he has an above-average shot, he's good in the circle, he's physical and he has hockey sense or presence."

And none of that has changed. As Neal indicated in his scouting report on January 18th, Pitlick is not only holding up to the physical rigors of the professional game, he's dishing out his fair share of punishment.

"He makes that 6' 2" nearly 200-pound frame seem much larger. The off-season has done this kid some favors. He's gained a few pounds and indeed throws that weight around. He's never steered away from a big hit on the boards, and his forechecking abilities are some of the brightest on the Barons squad. Couple that size and energy with speed, and Pitlick is a real talent to watch on the ice. And although he hasn't played a lot of center, that wide presence down the middle can indeed be a thing of beauty."

However, as in our previous updates, there remain questions about Pitlick's game, most notably his production.

Continue reading this post »

Tonight the Oilers took to the ice in Detroit against the best team in the NHL. In addition to sitting atop the NHL standings the Red Wings are also one of the best home teams and are currently on a franchise record 17 game home winning streak. The Oilers, for those who have forgotten, are not one of best teams in the NHL and are not very good when playing on the road. To say that tonight's game was a mismatch would be an understatement.

And the Oilers did little to make the game any closer in reality than it appeared to be on paper. They were outshot 30-17 and outchanced 17-11. The Wings dominated the play and kept the Oilers hemmed in their own end for long stretches of time. In fact, if not for some good goaltending from Nikolai Khabibulin early on the Oilers wouldn't have been close enough to tie the game in the third period so bad goaltending from Khabibulin could help seal a 4-2 the win for the WIngs; their 18th in a row on home ice. The Oilers haven't won more than 18 home games in a season since 2007/08.

Scoring Chances - Fenwick/Corsi - Head-to-Head Ice Time - Shift Charts
Box Score - Event Summary - Faceoff Report - Shot Report
Game Recap from Winging It In Motown

Continue reading this post »

A man who had suffered many years in an incompetent organization, who had lost the love of many of his fans, and whose body had begun to break down sought out Mr. Holland after leaving practice early, begging to be healed: "If you are willing, you can trade for me, and make me whole."

Moved by both compassion and self-interest, Mr. Holland reached out to him and said, "I am willing, and so you will be made whole." Instantly, the man was filled with life! It was as though a weight had been lifted from his surgically-repaired shoulders, and he went on to perform admirably over the next several games. But he did not forget the stern warning that Mr. Holland had given him: "Don't tell anyone about our conversation. Instead, let our scouts examine you. Play with heart, and a scorer's touch for this is what we will require of you. This will serve as a public testimony that you have been made whole."

Once the trade had been completed, the man could not keep himself from praising Mr. Holland and his anything-but-incompetent organization. As a result, even more people talked about Mr. Holland's genius, and though he tried to stay out of the public eye, people kept wanting to speak with him about his magical team that never seemed to decline.

Edmonton Oilers (21-27-5) @ Detroit Red Wings (35-17-2)

Joe Louis Arena, 5:30 p.m. MST
Television: TSN

More analysis after the jump...

Continue reading this post »

Whether we are ready for it or not, February is now here which means that the NHL trade deadline is now fully in our peripheral. About this time each season, we fans begin to speculate on contract size, future potential, and the various aspects of moving this player versus moving that player. There are times where trade deadline fodder is easy to digest and predict. Yet, there are rare seasons where a player is moved and virtually no one saw it coming. This is what makes the deadline so intriguing. For as much as we over hype the situation, there are times where a certain move can pay off dearly for an organization.

Last season, the Oilers made a few deadline moves with minor league implications. It goes without saying that the Dustin Penner trade weighed heavy on the hearts of Oilers fans everywhere. Despite your feelings now about that situation, one thing lost in that move was that Colten Teubert became an Oiler. Subsequently, and in a separate move, the Barons upgraded the dinged up Shawn Belle for Kevin Montgomery. Now for most, these seem like un-important milestone on the Oilers timeline of "rebuild", and truthfully they aren't NHL impacting to some degree. However, those two moves strengthened a minor league core which has panned out into a successful 2011-12 Barons campaign in the chase for the Calder Cup.

So as we begin the trade deadline talks, I feel it might be important to know what might be on the table. Yes, there are a few American League Barons that might be interesting trade pieces that might further sweeten (or spoil depending on how you look at it) the final deal. I mainly looked at those that were in their final season of a contract, or were nearing that point. Why? Because these seem like the most affordable enticements to other teams needing some immediate help even in the minors. I've broken it down based on position as well as their likelihood of being moved.

Continue reading this post »

Today, we feature a big, physical penalty-machine who struggles with positioning in the defensive zone and has trouble making crisp passes to get his team out of trouble. I could have sworn that I wrote about Theo Peckham already! I jest. Colten Teubert does have his problems, and many of them are similar to Peckham's, but he's also made some important strides this season, which is why he's moved up so far on this edition of the Top 25.

Continue reading this post »