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Caution: Oilers Goaltending Situation

Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

The Edmonton Oilers have been a player this past year in terms of roster movement around the NHL. They've brought in a number of players to try and create competition at forward, defense, and goal. A lot of the fringe players they've brought in to battle for the final few roster spots haven't worked out so well, and a few that were thrust into feature roles didn't measure up either. While I'm a little more optimistic this summer about the Oilers than I was last summer (how many times have Oiler fans said that in the last decade), I fear that the team's incredible failure last season has a better than zero chance of repeating itself for one reason: the goaltending situation is eerily similar to what it was at the start of last season.

Say What?

How can this be, you ask? They have noted hero Bulletproof Ben Scrivens! The man made 59 saves in a single game! He had a 0.922 combined save percentage last year with the Oilers and Kings! Many fans have expressed their relief at having Scrivens in place to solidify the Oilers net for next season. Well, allow me to draw a depressing parallel between the start of next season and the start of last season.

We Aren't All That Different, You and I

Ben Scrivens will be just barely 28 when he heads into his first year as the expected starting goalie in Edmonton.
Devan Dubnyk was 27 when he began his first year as the expected Oilers starting 'tender.

Both Scrivens and Dubnyk were coming off excellent seasons, both by the eye and by the numbers, in Edmonton which led many to speculate that both goalies should be able to provide quality netminding as the number one goalie next season.

Ben Scrivens save percentage in the previous three NHL years: 0.903, 0.915, 0.922
Devan Dubnyk save percentage in the previous three NHL years BEFORE last season: 0.916, 0.914, 0.920

Boy, that's pretty similar. In fact, Dubnyk's track record looks a little better in this particular sample, which brings me to my next point. The sample size of games played for both keepers is fairly small. Scrivens has only played 72 career NHL games so far, so I don't think it's fair to say that we know what he is yet. If we expand our view to look at the entire career, Scrivens looks superior at first, with a 0.917 career save percentage. Now maybe you can say Dubnyk is a 0.909 goalie because he's played one hundred more games, but I'm going to guess that he's a bit better than we saw last year. Big life changes, like having a baby, can definitely impact other areas of your life, and my personal suspicion is that Dubnyk's new challenges in his personal life may have affected his work. I'd guess Dubnyk will bounce back to around or better than his career average of 0.909 over the next few seasons. Every goalie goes through tough stretches (see Lundqvist, Henrik - 2013)

Back to the comparison. To keep my bias to a minimum, regardless of my rationalization above, let's just say Dubnyk is a career 0.909 goalie. 172 games is getting close to being a decent amount of work to judge him on (especially with the high volume of shots faced as an Oiler). Scrivens' career save percentage is 0.917, quite a bit better than Dubnyk, but are you comfortable saying that's what he is after just 72 games? I'm definitely not, especially considering what looked like a hot streak last year really inflated his career numbers since his career numbers are based on a low number of games played. All this considered, it's not a stretch AT ALL to think that Scrivens' true talent is a bit less than 0.917, and Dubnyk's a bit more than 0.909. If that turned out to be true, we are looking at two goaltenders who are basically identical in skill.

All Together Now

The upshot is this: When I look at the start of this season and last season, in both situations I see a goalie in his prime who played well in the past few years with limited work, looking ready to grab the starting job next year. One failed miserably, the fate of the Oilers season is tied to that of the other, and the Oilers fate has come swiftly, bearing an aura of grim inevitability in recent years.

The Copper & Blue is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Edmonton Oilers and hockey in general. These posts do not necessarily represent the views of the staff of The Copper & Blue.

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