Killing time during the slow summer so I thought I'd post a comprehensive armchair plan. Oiler Signings, Free Agent Signings, Draft Picks, Trades and one College Signing next spring. Any thoughts? Anyone want to post their own?
SIGN FREE AGENTS
Sign Unsigned Players Now
Sign RW/C - Peter Mueller (Europe) for between 1.5M & 2.0M for 1 year. Mueller spent the past year playing in Europe and wants to return. He's versatile (can play C or RW). He's got decent speed and size. His concussion history seems to be a thing of the past. And he can score. He finished his 3rd NHL season with 20 pts in the last 15 games. If he can get back to anywhere near half that, he is a useful forward that can play up and down the lineup.
On the dreadful florida Panthers in the 2012-2013 season, Mueller had 131 shots, which ranks with the best in the league. 131 in 699 minutes of ice team translates to 3.75 shots per 20 minutes. Over 82 games that would equal 307 shots. That's 6 more shots than Hall's prorated total from last year. At a average shooting percentage of about 10% for wingers, he could have 31 goals in an 82 game season, or 28 goals at a Center's average of 9%.
Between Now and June 27, 2014
Sign RFA RD - Justin Schultz for between 3.5M & 3.75M for 2-3 years. I think a bridge contract is the way to go with Schultz. He hasn't shown that he will be solid enough defensively yet to garner more money. That said, the Oilers may regret low balling with a bridge contract if he shoots the lights out and earns a huge salary at the end of it.
Sign UFA RD - Taylor Fedun for 0.6M for 1 year - I think you offer him the minimum. If he stays, great, if not, not a big loss. I like him, but I don't think he makes the team on a contending roster.
Between Now & June 28th:
"RFA/New UFA" contract amounts are estimates based on qualifying offer requirements and are guesstimates. The Oilers would have to make trades involving RFAs prior to the qualifying offer deadline, which is the day after the entry draft or June 29th. Trade with enough time for new team to make qualifying offer prior to qualifying offer deadline.
C/RW – Sam Gagner, 2 yrs @ 4.8M (NMC 2014-2015) Must Trade Before July 1st, when his NMC kicks in. I think Ottawa may be looking for some offence, especially since it doesn't look like Hemsky is coming back and Spezza may want out.
LW – Luke Gazdic, RFA 2 yrs @ 0.635M (RFA/New UFA). Waste of a roster spot. The team is really worse when he's on the ice. The stats show it quite clearly. Trade him somewhere that still values a one-dimensional enforcer. The Oilers shouldn't.
LD – David Musil, 2 yrs @ 0.894M (EL) - This is simply because I'd like to get rid of any remnants of the boys on the bus and nepotism. Plus, Musil's dad played in Ottawa.
C – Marc Olivier Roy, rights - I think he'd be necessary to get Stone. Some secondary offence going to Ottawa. Roy would be closer to home as well.
TOTAL CAP $6.329M
to Ottawa Senators for:
LW - Clarke MacArthur, 1 yr @ 3.25M (NMC) - from Lloydminster, Alberta. Probably one of the best two-way players around. He only has one year left on his contract so Ottawa has to make a decision at some point this season and if they wait until the deadline and he isn't signed they'll be looking at getting picks back for him, just like we did for Hemsky.
RW – Mark Stone, 1 yr @ 0.603M (EL) - hasn't really cracked the Sens lineup yet, but there have been flashes of hope. Smart, hard working player. There was some worry about his foot speed, but he has been working on it. It would be nice to have another Team Canada hero on the roster.
LW – Darren Kramer, 1 yr @ 0.6M (EL) - Kramer is from Peace River, Alberta. 6'-1", 202lbs went 156th overall in 2011. He captained Guelph Storm before switching to the WHL where he was a heavyweight fan favourite. He'll probably be kept down in Oklahoma, but that's of value too.
RD – Troy Rutkowski, 2 yrs @ 0.655M (EL) - He's 6'-1", 205lbs. In his WHL draft year he outscored Brandon Davidson, Radko Gudas, Ryan Murray, Jared Cowen, Mark Pysyk, Joe Morrow and David Musil. In his final overage WHL season he outscored Seth Jones, Morgan Rielly, Damon Severson, Shea Theodore, Ryan Pulock, Derrick Pouliott, Matthew Dumba, Duncan Siemens, Keegan Lowe and David Musil again. But he's had a hard time breaking in. A Sens fan site has him as 24th in their top 25 under 25.
TOTAL CAP $5.108M
EDMONTON'S CAP DIFFERENCE -$1.221M
RD – Jeff Petry, 5 yrs @ 3.75M (RFA/New UFA) - I don't know what Philadelphia would be able to sign Petry for. Maybe 3.75M, maybe as high as 4.5M. I think he's valuable enough to teams looking for D help as a #3-4 D who can play #2 if needed or with the right partner. tough player to give up. He's been playing hard on a cheap contract for years.
C - Mark Arcobello, 1 yr @ 0.6M (RFA) - Other teams noticed Arcobello's start last season even if the Oilers didn't. With the right linemates he can light it up. There are parallels to Martin St. Louis story of breaking into the league. If so, the Oilers will regret giving him up. But I think enough teams 'saw him good' last year to garner interest even though the Oilers buried him.
LD - Dillon Simpson, 3yrs @ 0.837M (EL) - another remnant of the Boys on the Bus that I'd like to see go even if I do like Simpson as a player. But he's also stuck behind the Oilers deep pool of left-handed defenders: Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, & Gernat. Plus one veteran with a NTC in Ference. And he's still competing neck and neck with Musil and Davidson. that puts him 6th to 8th on the left side depth chart.
RW - John McCarron, rights - throw in of a big American who played his college hockey in close by NY state to sweeten the deal slightly.
(plus 3rd round draft pick in 2015)
TOTAL CAP $5.187M
to Philadelphia Flyers for:
C – Brayden Schenn, 3 yrs @ 4.150M (RFA/New UFA) - from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Another Team Canada hero who as a RFa right now. I'm not sure how talks are going between Brayden and the Flyers but maybe the'd consider getting assets back for him while dumping his brother's contract at the same time. He hasn't really taken off offensively yet and they have Couturier who, I think, is a bit more responsible defensively. Brayden may think he has earned a btter contract than the Flyers are willing to pay.
RD – Luke Schenn, 2 yrs @ 3.6M (UFA w/Modified NMC for 2015-2016) - from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. This is basically his final year on his contract as he has a NMC that kicks in next year. I'm not sure if Philadelphia feels they are getting 3.6M woth per year and may welcome a chance to unload his contract.
LW – Marcel Noebels, 1 yr @ 0.676M (EL) - Noebels is from Germany and it would be great to have him on board if they're going to draft Draisaitl. He's 6'-3", 195lbs and was a high scoring junior in the WHL. Good two-way player. Too bad they didn't keep German Tobias Reider as well.
TOTAL CAP $8.426M
EDMONTON'S CAP DIFFERENCE $3.239M
LW – Matt Hendricks, 3 yrs @ 1.85M (UFA). I really like Hendricks, but again, he's an asset with an attractive contract. He shouldn't be playing on the 3rd line though. On a good team he's a 4th line player.
LW – Jesse Joensuu, 1 yr @ 0.95 (UFA). Another value contract if he can stick. I'm not sure he got a fair shake with the Oilers and he ran into injury problems again. He's got some skill and good size.
G – Richard Bachman, 2 yrs @ 0.688M (RFA/New UFA). Florida needs some goaltending depth so he may sweeten the pot a bit for them.
C/RW – Andrew Miller, 2 yrs @ 0.925M (RFA/New UFA). He was a top scorer with Yale and the type of player florida seems to like.
LD – Jordan Oesterle, 2 yrs @ 0.768M (EL). a sought after college signing this spring may be attractive to the Panthers.
TOTAL CAP $5.181M
to Florida Panthers for:
LW - Scottie Upshall, 1 yr @ 3.5M (NMC/Modified NTC) - from Fort McMurray, Alberta. Upshall is a great two-way player on the final year of his contract. They may be looking at losing him for nothing to UFA if he doesn't sign by the trade dealine. Or they give him up at the deadline for picks, similar to Hemsky last year.
RD – Alex Petrovic, 1 yr @ 0.795M (EL) - great D prospect who had a cup of coffee (7 games) with the Panthers a bit this past season and 6 ames the eyar before. He's from Edmonton. He's 6'-4", 201lbs. He has some offence. Went 36 overall in 2010.
*C – Drew Shore, 1 yr @ 0.9M (EL) . I like him as a hidden gem stuck on a team with a depp pool of young centers. But I wouldn't hang this deal on getting him back.
G – Evan Cowley, rights - a throw in that can play on the farm. He's originally from Cranbrook, BC. Big young goaltender who went 92nd overall in 2013. this is a godo return for Bachman. Still playing college hockey in Denver.
(*optional? Or plus a 3rd round draft pick in 2016)
TOTAL CAP $5.195M
EDMONTON'S CAP DIFFERENCE $0.014M
June 27-28 NHL Entry Draft
3. C/LW - Leon Draisaitl – Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) 6'-2", 208lbs.
91. RW/C - Keegan Iverson – Portland Winterhawks (WHL) 6'-1", 210lbs.
111. RW - Hunter Smith – Oshawa Generals (OHL) 6'-6", 210lbs.
130. G – Ty Edmonds – Prince George Cougars (WHL) 6'-1", 175lbs.
137. RD – Nelson Nogier – Saskatoon Blades (WHL) 6'-2 1/4", 191lbs.
153. LW/RW – Nikita Yazkov – Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 6'-1", 187lbs.
183. RW/LW – Brett Boehm – Flin Flon Bombers (SJHL) 6'-1", 180lbs.
June 30th, 12:01am to July 1st 12:01am Start Negotiating with potential UFAs
Sign UFA Targets
Sign UFA LD – Andrei Markov (MTL), for between 7.5M & 8.0M for 2 years maximum. 3 years if the final year is 35% lower and it does not have a NMC or NTC. I think you really haver to overpay to get Markov, especially for only 2 years. I think 2 years is imperative as they should be making room for the young left defenders coming up. Eventually, they should hope that Markov, Ference and Boychuk move on to make room for a D that includes Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, Gernat on the left and Morrison, Schultz, Petrovic and Schenn on the right side. With Musil, Davidson, Fedun, Nogier and Rutkowski getting callups. Plus, it might be good for Yakupov to have a veteran Russian who knows what it takes to play in the NHL and fight through adversity. I don't think Belov, Grebeshkov and Bryzgalov were exactly great role models for him and they're all gone.
Sign UFA G – Chad Johnson (BOS), for between 1.75M & 2.0M for 2 years. Johnson is from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan and has had pretty good numbers throughout his career and he just finished a career year for the Bruins where he had a .925 save pct in 27 games. That puts him among the league leaders. Signing him allows the Oilers to trade Fasth. May have to pay as high as 2.9M, but I don't think they should offer more than Scrivens or Ben Bishop's 2.3M
Sign UFA RW – Devin Setoguchi (WPG), from Taber, Alberta. I think could be signed for between 1.75M & 2.0M for 2 years. I think Setoguchi could be a very valuable 3rd-4th line player who could play up and down the lineup if needed. He's proven he can score in the past with 65 pts in 08-09 on a very good line that probably dragged him up quite a bit. Still, he can produce 40 plus in the right situation and his salary won't be too high after a couple down years.
Once Chad Johnson is signed trade Viktor Fasth
EDM-BOS TRADE (POST UFA)
G – Viktor Fasth, 1 yr @ 2.9M (UFA) - I like the tandem they have, but I think Fasth could be a valuable asset on the trade market if the Oilers can sign Chad Johnson, who the Bruins will probably lose to free agency.
RW – Kellen Jones, rights
LW – Evan Campbell rights
(plus 4th round pick in 2016)
TOTAL CAP $4.4M
to Boston Bruins for:
RD - Johnny Boychuk, 1 yr @ 3.367M (UFA, Modified NTC 15 team list) - from Edmonton, Alberta. Boychuk's in his final year and the Bruins may not want to lose him without getting something back and gaining 3.367M in cap space might be attractive as well.
RD – Matt Benning rights
TOTAL CAP $3.367M
EDMONTON'S CAP DIFFERENCE -$1.033M
SIGN COLLEGE D
Pull out all the stops to sign RD Kenny Morrison coming out of Western Michigan University. He is from Alberta originally and maybe the most coveted D without an NHL contract right now.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE:
Link to Capgeek page here >>>> EDMONTON OILERS ROSTER on CAPGEEK
CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
David Perron ($3.813m) / Brayden Schenn ($4.150m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)
Clarke MacArthur ($3.250m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Devin Setoguchi ($1.900m)
Scottie Upshall ($3.500m) / Leon Draisaitl ($0.925m) / Peter Mueller ($1.650m)
Drew Shore ($0.900m) /
Andrei Markov ($7.650m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Justin Schultz ($3.650m)
Andrew Ference ($3.250m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Oscar Klefbom ($0.894m) / Alex Petrovic (call-up)
Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)
Chad Johnson ($1.840m)
Eric Belanger ($0.000m)
RETAINED SALARIES (1.69% of upper limit)
Sam Gagner ($1.200m—25.00%)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,493,333; BONUSES: $3,540,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $606,667
Oklahoma City Barons Roster –
Players in *Asterisks* may push for time in Edmonton
CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
Mitch Moroz ($0.875m) / *Bogdan Yakimov* ($0.843m) / *Mark Stone* ($0.603m)
Curtis Hamilton ($0.851m) / *Marcel Noebels* ($0.676m) / *Matt Fraser* ($1.200m)
Travis Ewanyk ($0.713m) / Jujhar Khaira ($0.875m) / Kale Kessy ($0.630m)
Darren Kramer ($0.600m) / Greg Chase ($0.600m) / Ryan Hamilton ($0.600m)
Matthew Ford ($0.600m) / Will Acton ($0.680m) /
*Martin Gernat* ($0.746m) / *Alex Petrovic* ($0.795m)
David Musil ($0.894m) / *Taylor Fedun* ($0.660)
Brandon Davidson ($0.615m) / Troy Rutkowski ($0.655m)
Brad Hunt ($0.550m) / Matt Benning ($0.600m)
Ben Betker ($0.600m)
Laurent Brossoit ($0.659m)
Frans Tuohimaa ($0.598m)
Tyler Bunz ($0.618m)
Evan Cowley ($0.600m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)